Right odds on the turn?

jugglegeek

I won the hand and on the turn I knew that he had the king. But his bet on the turn is very small and if he has just a king then I have any club, any 5, any 6 or any 7 to hit. Thats 17 outs or 37%. Calculator says I am 1.89:1 to win the hand on the river and I'm getting 2.5:1 on the pot odds so is this the right call. Especially when you factor in the implied odds that I can get on the river? Basically I feel like a "bingo player" for this hand should I be ashamed of myself?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Grafix	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£10.52
DiamondLuc	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£11.43
alcando	Sit out
	Your hole cards	6 7
greenfoot	Raise		£0.40	£0.55	£10.11
jugglegeek	Call		£0.40	£0.95	£17.30
Grafix	Fold
DiamondLuc	Fold
Flop
		8 7 4
greenfoot	Bet		£0.60	£1.55	£9.51
jugglegeek	Call		£0.60	£2.15	£16.70
Turn
		K
greenfoot	Bet		£1.40	£3.55	£8.11
jugglegeek	Call		£1.40	£4.95	£15.30
River
		A
greenfoot	Check
jugglegeek	Bet		£4.95	£9.90	£10.35
greenfoot	Call		£4.95	£14.85	£3.16
jugglegeek	Show	6 7
greenfoot	Muck	K 10
jugglegeek	Win	Flush to the Ace	£13.73		£24.08

grantorino

turn call seems ok, dont know how you put his range as Kx though

I'd raise flop or turn sometimes, but its player dpendent

IDONKCALLU

i would of deffo raise on the turn so many outs for u i be looking at the villains stack here and best way to get it i would of raise the turn to about £3.20 then on river villain is commited so jam it in 

jugglegeek

In Response to Re: Right odds on the turn?:

i would of deffo raise on the turn so many outs for u i be looking at the villains stack here and best way to get it i would of raise the turn to about £3.20 then on river villain is commited so jam it in 
Posted by IDONKCALLU

Interesting idea. I put him on the king because I noticed that he hadn't been playing many pots pre flop. So I figured he was playing premium type hands. I thought either AK or KQ (suprised he turned up with KT).

I didn't consider the raise on the turn to be honest. But thinking about it now I don't think I would be happy about raising because he is likely to 3-bet shove his whole stack and I don't think that I'm favorite. I'm not sure how much fold equity I have against a player who likely has top pair good kicker.

IDONKCALLU

id be happy to get it in on the turn tbh with ya u got a gutshot any 6 or 7 to hit and any club its about 55/45 against ya but with your all in u putting pressure on the vilain if he likes the hand or not 

grantorino

In Response to Re: Right odds on the turn?:

id be happy to get it in on the turn tbh with ya u got a gutshot any 6 or 7 to hit and any club its about 55/45 against ya but with your all in u putting pressure on the vilain if he likes the hand or not 
Posted by IDONKCALLU

I'd say its at best 60/40 against and sometimes he has hands which kill some of our outs. Whether shoving is good or not depends how much fe we have, if we have none calling is better imo

jugglegeek

In Response to Re: Right odds on the turn?:

In Response to Re: Right odds on the turn? : I'd say its at best 60/40 against and sometimes he has hands which kill some of our outs. Whether shoving is good or not depends how much fe we have, if we have none calling is better imo
Posted by grantorino

Against the hand he has I'm 38.64% vs 61.36%. Against the king of diamonds and a random card (meaning he could have anything from K2 to a set of kings through two pair) I drop to 34.39%

There's probably some way of figuring out how often he needs to fold to make a shove on the turn +ev. I'm not that clever does someone else know how to work this out? And if so could you show me.

grantorino

If F= Fold Equity P= current pot size E= Equity when called B=amount bluffed

FP+ (1-F)((P+B)(E)-(B)(1-E))=0

Solve Equation for F to find fold equity required

In this case lets assume you have 35% equity against calling range. E=35 P=3.55 B=9.51

So
F(3.55)+(1-F)((3.55+9.51)(0.35)-(9.51)(0.65))=0

 3.55F+ (1-F)(-1.6105)=0
5.1605F-1.6105=0
F=1.6105/5.1605=31.4%

This means you require him to fold 31.4% of time to make shoving breakeven. You also need to decide if calling might be more +EV

The part after 1-F is just a standard EV calc, amount won - amount lost =EV.

You can also stick in an estimated value for F to try calculate whether shoving in a situation is +EV. Obv all these calcs are dependent on good estimation of both your fold equity and equity when called v villains ranges

Think this is correct, had a quick look  on 2+2, it makes sense to me anyway, if anyone thinks its wrong let me know

IDONKCALLU

all i know is im sticking it all in on the turn he can only call with a proper hand and if he does u are not in bad shape lots of outs 

jakally

Turn call is fine, and probably slightly better than a raise. 

When you raise, you are probably not getting your opponent to fold too many better hands, and there is every chance they have nothing, and are betting to rep the king (with AQ / AJ etc...).

A raise isn't terrible though, as even if we are ahead, out opponent will certainly have cards to improve, therefore it protects our hand.

In terms of odds, you are about 39% to win the hand, and only need about 28% given the bet size you have to call.

In addition, we can assume that at least some of the times we hit the river, we get paid some more.

Swog

its a fold pre-flop in my opinion;
in some cases a raise is justifiable with being on the button, gives you the betting initiative, gives you an idea of the strentgh of the villains hand and another cance of winning the pot (by a fold from villian). The flat call just seems -EV, as there isn't many flops your going to completley love, unless it contains 2 or more clubs or a 5 + 8.