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BIG PRICES TODAY FROM HUGH TAYLOR GD LUCK

IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
edited December 2011 in Betting Chat

THORPE BAY (Southwell 12.30) showed blazing speed on his Fibresand debut over 6f last time, but almost certainly went off too fast – for instance, I reckon he covered the first 3f around 1.2 seconds, or around six lengths, quicker than the leader in the handicap for older horses run the previous day, which was run in a similar (slightly slower) time. He clearly took well to the surface, and it may be that 5f on Fibresand in blinkers represents his ideal scenario, so given he has already twice gone close off similar marks to today’s he looks worth an interest here.

EVEN STEVENS was one of the star turns on Fibresand last winter, and connections must have been thrilled when the handicapper dropped him 4lb to 85 after his recent spin on Polytrack, as it lowered him neatly into eligibility for the 5f handicap at Southwell today (runs in first division at 1.00). His two performances over this course and distance last year were pure demolition jobs, blitzing the field from the front and surging clear to wide-margin wins on both occasions. He never seemed quite as comfortable going round a bend over 6f, even though he won two of his three starts over that course and distance, and he recorded a series of good times. He went up to a mark of 90 following his final win, and has to be of interest here having been dropped 5lb for one run on Polytrack. Crimson Cloud would be a big danger if building on her very impressive Fibresand debut, but it has to be taken on trust that the headgear will work again, and Whozthecat caught the eye last time and shaped well on his previous Fibresand run, but if Even Stevens returns to Fibresand in the same form as when he last encountered the surface, he’ll be very hard to beat; his high draw hasn’t always been ideal over the years over this course and distance, but there hasn’t seemed as much in the draw over the last 12 months or so.

The same connections also have an interesting runner, albeit from the other extreme of the draw, in LUSCIVIOUS in the second division (1.30). He struggled here last winter, but that was largely down to his mark being too high, and his last three performances were quite respectable given they came in class 3 events. The handicapper has given him a real chance, now 9lb lower than for his last run here, and if he’s close to his best even the in-form types, such as Mottley Crewe and Lenny Bee, will have their hands full; like Even Stevens he’s trained at David Nicholls’ satellite yard at Retford, just a few miles down the road from Southwell, and with the stable going a bit better of late, I can’t resist a small double on the pair as well as a small single on each.

In the 7f handicap that closes the card at Southwell (3.30), there are two that catch the eye at double-figure odds. ADAM DE BEAULIEU recorded good times on his first two Fibresand starts of the winter last year and might have been amiss when flopping on his final start, given he wasn’t seen again until May; if he’s back in the form of his two earlier starts on Fibresand, he will go very close here. SOPRAN NAD was an impressive winner last time he ran here, and whilst the time wasn’t startling, it was ok given he wasn’t in any danger of defeat over the last two furlongs, and he has to be of interest on his return to the surface given the manner of that victory.

 

 

 

 

If you have a question you would like to ask Hugh about this column or any racing issue for the Form Factor programme on Wednesdays, just email formfactor@attheraces.com. Thanks to those who have already submitted questions.

Hugh is now giving a daily indication of when the column will be published via Twitter.com (username is HughRacing).

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