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DYM Call or Fold?

ricky1984ricky1984
edited December 2011 in The Poker Clinic
Right I have this guy down as loose-passive. and this is the 3rd time I have raised his early limp and both other times he has folded to sandard c-bet. Should I be snapping him off bearing in mind the info I have or is it just a bad spot for calling??
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
fred1950 Small blind 25.00 25.00 2485.00
OWLETTES Big blind 50.00 75.00 1875.00
Your hole cards
  • Q
  • A
XX Call 50.00 125.00 2190.00
Svenster69 Fold
oudy7 Fold
ricky1984 Raise 200.00 325.00 1760.00
fred1950 Fold
OWLETTES Fold
XX Call 150.00 475.00 2040.00
Flop
  • J
  • Q
  • K
XX All-in 2040.00 2515.00 0.00
ricky1984
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Comments

  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited December 2011
    I fancy a call here as we have so many ways to win even if we are behind now but I don't think it's the end of the world to play cautiously and fold.
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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited December 2011
    snap call for me any club any 10 or even any queen just so many out has to be a call 
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited December 2011
    Forget the outs, I think we need to have the best hand already alot of the time to be able to make the call?

    If I know I'm behind 100%, doesn't matter how big my draw is, it's a fold surely?
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM Call or Fold?:
    Forget the outs, I think we need to have the best hand already alot of the time to be able to make the call? If I know I'm behind 100%, doesn't matter how big my draw is, it's a fold surely?
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    Surely you got 9club outs, 4 x 10s (at worst it could make a split) and possibly 3 x Aces if he has KQ/KJ/QJ or a set.

    I think even if you're behind you're still a pretty big favourite most of the time.
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  • Dudeskin8Dudeskin8
    edited December 2011
    I fold this, still 35bbs at 25/50 and then 17 at 50/100 which is massive, the guy you say is loose passive but now he suddenly wants all his money in RIGHT NOW, most likely has a hand that is ahead here, if he doesn't type well done sir and move on.
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  • waynecwaynec
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM Call or Fold?:
    Forget the outs, I think we need to have the best hand already alot of the time to be able to make the call? If I know I'm behind 100%, doesn't matter how big my draw is, it's a fold surely?
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    I think your wrong JJ we are 60% fav even against 2 pair, cant see how you can fold IMO!
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  • GREGHOGGGREGHOGG
    edited December 2011
    This is closer to a fold than a call in a dym imo at this stage

    If im on my A game i snap fold it.

    If im playing a bit ropey (tilting and trying to get lucky), i might call...
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM Call or Fold?:
    This is closer to a fold than a call in a dym imo at this stage If im on my A game i snap fold it. If im playing a bit ropey (tilting and trying to get lucky), i might call...
    Posted by GREGHOGG
    Call it is then.

    I don't know how to work post flop ranges on stove, can any1 help with that?
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    fold

    can't call this :(_

    gamble anyone !!

    Hardest part is trying to work out oppo's range, what is oppo shoving here :S

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  • ricky1984ricky1984
    edited December 2011
    Thanks for the feedback guys, maybe as greg says if I was really on my A game, then curiosity would not of got the better of me, because I decided to call and here was the outcome
      
    • J
    • Q
    • K
    		   
    XX All-in  2040.00 2515.00 0.00
    ricky1984 All-in  1760.00 4275.00 0.00
    XX Unmatched bet  280.00 3995.00 280.00
    XX Show
    • 9
    • 10
    		   
    ricky1984 Show
    • Q
    • A
    		   
    Turn
      
    • A
    		   
    River
      
    • 6
    		   
    XX Win Straight to the Ace 3995.00  4275.00
    As I said, playing 9 10off this way in DYM justifies why I had him down as loose-passive. Maybe the shove was great play on his part, as he was worried about all the clubs.
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    indeed what is oppo shoving for ?  protection !!

    we should only consider flush live, maybe str draw 

    shoving str/weak flush/set/two pair

    calling off as a dog  (woof woof) or at best flipping is never going to be good - your looking for at least 55% equity in a DYM

    What people forgot about FD's is you may not have the full 9 outs )
    There could be three in the muck for example !


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  • waynecwaynec
    edited December 2011
    I said shove so thats why Im awful at dym or any other tourny TBH lol
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM Call or Fold?:
    indeed what is oppo shoving for ?  protection !! we should only consider flush live, maybe str draw  shoving str/weak flush/set/two pair calling off as a dog  (woof woof) or at best flipping is never going to be good - your looking for at least 55% equity in a DYM What people forgot about FD's is you may not have the full 9 outs ) There could be three in the muck for example !
    Posted by rancid
    Sorry but that's a rubbish statement, you can only reasonably work out the number of outs from what you KNOW to not be showing. That's like saying everyone could have folded 106 pre so there's no 10s for the straight, or everyone has folded Q9 pre so you can't hit a set etc, you can't calculate outs like that
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM Call or Fold?:
    indeed what is oppo shoving for ?  protection !! we should only consider flush live, maybe str draw  shoving str/weak flush/set/two pair calling off as a dog  (woof woof) or at best flipping is never going to be good - your looking for at least 55% equity in a DYM What people forgot about FD's is you may not have the full 9 outs ) There could be three in the muck for example !
    Posted by rancid
    All 9 flush outs could also be right at the bottom of the deck. 

    We could have 0% chance of making a flush :(
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM Call or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM Call or Fold? : All 9 flush outs could also be right at the bottom of the deck.  We could have 0% chance of making a flush :(
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    But JJ.... the 10 clubs could be on top of the pack for the royal ;)
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited December 2011
    ^^^^In that case it's a snap call/slowroll/and blatant brag thread!!!!
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    hehehaha

    How about if it's a nine player tables, more chance of outs being in the muck !!
    What about if it HU, more chance of outs being in the deck !!
    You seriously not thought about this !!
    Any why sky poker dish out more beats because it's 6 max !!
    More chance of hitting outs !!
    I may go to area 51 with this insider information :D


    There is actually some truth on what I am saying, just to dismiss it lambert is a bit naive lol

    It's a game of incomplete information so we are best only guessing our outs !!
    If it's a nine player game then surely we can factor this in, can't we )

    Love how people (Lambert) gets a bit shirty with any new suggestions lol
    You MUST do it this way !!
    Like how we say, we have nine outs IT DOESN'T MEAN WE DO !!!!!

    WE DO NOT HAVE EXACTLY 36% - DEAL WITH THE TRUTH !!!
    SOMETIMES IT DOES FEEL LIKE THE WORLD OF PROBABILITY IS FALLING DOWN AROUND US !!

    :D

    NN
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  • SHANXTASHANXTA
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM Call or Fold?:
    hehehaha How about if it's a nine player tables, more chance of outs being in the muck !! What about if it HU, more chance of outs being in the deck !! You seriously not thought about this !! Any why sky poker dish out more beats because it's 6 max !! More chance of hitting outs !! I may go to area 51 with this insider information :D There is actually some truth on what I am saying, just to dismiss it lambert is a bit naive lol It's a game of incomplete information so we are best only guessing our outs !! If it's a nine player game then surely we can factor this in, can't we ) Love how people (Lambert) gets a bit shirty with any new suggestions lol You MUST do it this way !! Like how we say, we have nine outs IT DOESN'T MEAN WE DO !!!!! WE DO NOT HAVE EXACTLY 36% - DEAL WITH THE TRUTH !!! SOMETIMES IT DOES FEEL LIKE THE WORLD OF PROBABILITY IS FALLING DOWN AROUND US !! :D NN
    Posted by rancid
    please tell me u r joking
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  • EvilPinguEvilPingu
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM Call or Fold?:
    hehehaha How about if it's a nine player tables, more chance of outs being in the muck !! What about if it HU, more chance of outs being in the deck !! You seriously not thought about this !!
    Posted by rancid
    And live, the dealer might have burnt one of the outs ;) I know your post is tongue in cheek, but it still doesn't actually make any difference over time :P

    If you have AK, for instance, and your only out is a 10 on the river to make a straight, for example:

    No 10's on board
    No 10's in your hand

    Therefore, 46 cards out there, 4 of which are 10's. Odds of 10 on river = 4/46

    If your opponent has 0 10's, probability of a 10 on the river = 4/44 = 1/11. This will happen (100 x 42/46 x 41/45) percent of the time.

    If your opponent has 1 10, probability of river 10 = 3/44. This will happen (100 x 4/46 x 42/45 x 2) percent of the time

    If your opponent has 2 10's, probablility of river 10 = 2/44 = 1/22. This will happen (100 x 4/46 x 3/45) percent of the time

    ((1/11 x 42/46 x 41/45) + (3/44 x 4/46 x 42/45 x 2) + (2/44 x 4/46 x 3/45)) x 100 = 4/46 ;)

    I'm too lazy to do that for more than 1 opponent, it's 2am, I don't know what I'm really proving other than I'm a nerd and that 4/46 = 4/46 (Over time, whether your opponent holds one of your outs or whether one of your outs has been mucked won't make a difference?), so on that note, I'm off to bed.

    I guess it'd be pretty cool in Omaha if someone tried to represent flopping broadway, and you were sat there with 4 jacks in your hand, and made them fold :P
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  • ricky1984ricky1984
    edited December 2011
    Wow I wasnt expecting such a fierce response!!  I have to admit I aint exactly a maths geek and dont pretend to be, but in this situation I know that any club would be good (barring the board pairing). But surely we cant say how many could already be in the muck?! The point is u dont know? How do we know every other oppo didnt fold 2 clubs each, giving me only 1 club to hit??

    Maybe sky should start showing us everyone else's mucked cards, i might start winning a little bit more!!
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM Call or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM Call or Fold? : please tell me u r joking
    Posted by SHANXTA

    what do you think !!

    :D


    Reverse implied odds anyone, same principle but maybe I am taking it a bit too far

    "I think they may be flushing too and I have weak flush so therefore ie. FOLD"


    More cards in the deck increase or decrease the chances of missing ?

    Less cards in the deck decrease or increase the chance of hitting ?

    Just spouting off ---- lol

    feel free to discuss in my absence !!


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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited December 2011

    It's 1 of those where you dunno if he is being serious or not!

    And even if he was/is, he can make it look like he isn't.

    Rancid is holding all the aces!

    :(
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM Call or Fold?:
    It's 1 of those where you dunno if he is being serious or not! And even if he was/is, he can make it look like he isn't. Rancid is holding all the aces! :(
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    I am holding something !!

    Seriously though, our perceived equity with draws is only just that, FD = max 36% -- thats MAX !

    You will hear people say "Flushes always hit" or "I always miss"

    Just means the deck is being kind or not so kind in the short term ) Is this what they call variance !!

    "I should hit one in three, but I have lost my last five FD" BLAH BLAH BLAH
    These are common statements you hear a lot


    long term the probability should remain constant )
    Well I think thats the theory, the practice is not quite straight forward.
    Like the backward thinking of "I have missed my two last FD, so this time i will hit" !!!!!!!


    Strange people out there !!









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