UKOPS main event sattelite

IDONKCALLU

Soz i aint got the hand id the table closed soon as i lost this hand the blinds were 100/200 some 1 limps in utg fold round to me i have 22 i dnt like limpers my stack was 1.9 k im in the cut of i shoved all in the question is  is this a good spot to go all in here i went all in to get the dead money hoping the original limper folds but if i get a call maybe a flip turns out guy next to me had 10 10 but is this a good spot to shove here any views please 

rancid

You are never more than flipping with 22 so .........................

how much do you like flipping

IDONKCALLU

basically rancid i hate people that limp so when some 1 limps i thought to myslef i need these chips i woulda done it with any 2 cards to be honest with u needed the extra 500 chips to survive if guy raised i would of fold 

grantorino

sounds ok, but it depends on table and whether you are near bubble

pod1

think i might just limp with a monster next time we meet ! :-)

IDONKCALLU

haha pod 1 there was like 64 players left top 21 qualify i was like in 48th place at the time and blinds go up quick 

Luke_Jones

errr HATE IT! got to say i have the short stack argument ALOT with ppl. so your betting 1.9k to win 500 not the best, unlucky u run into the 10's and are crushed but u are 48th out of 64 players so it's obviously a fast pace tourn i mean u dont even have 10 bb and 16 players out 64 have less chips then u, in this style of format small raises work just aswell as shoves and im not saying u should raise fold 22 im not even saying u should play them in this spot lol. Who wants to go broke after a hard grind in a tourn with ducks. obviously it depends on what information you have on ur players might of been a nittty table i dunno. but lets say u waite another 12 hands ok u loose 600 chips you might of picked up a monster u might of nicked the blinds a few times, u might of got a walk seen a free flop, hit the nuts, hit a massive draw. say u dont win a hand and ur down to 1.3k then u pick AK in the same situation u just had and u shove an limper calls with hs AJ BOOM. you now have 2.9k(including the blinds) more then u would of had tryin to take the dead money sticking your chips in with ducks to make ur stack into 2.4k and you got to see another 12 hands of play. Over dramastic i know , but moral of the story be the guy that put's ur chips in good not 50/50 or dead

sikas

right so let me explain the math why this is a good shove

u shove there are 3 possible scenarios...

1. u shove pick up the dead money

2. u shove u get called, u lose

3. u shove u get called, u win

i think we can assume who calls this is their range...66+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KQo which is 11% and of which we have 39% equity against

1. everyone folds = (.89)500 - The .89 represents the chance of occurring, and he must be folding 89% if they're calling 11%. The 500 is how many chips you'll win when he folds (the blinds).

2. some1 calls, and wins = (.11)(.61)(-1900). The (.11) represents the chance he'll call, and the (.61) is the chance he'll win when he calls. Multiplying them together gives us the chance he will call AND win. The -1900 is the chip outcome for you, because you'll lose your stack.

3. BB calls, and loses = (.11)(.39)(2400). Same as above for (.11) and (.39). The 2400 is how much you will gain when he calls and you win.

So you add them all together to find the total EV:

(.89)(500) + (.11)(.61)(-1900) + (.11)(.39)(2400) = 420.47

445 + -127.49 + 102.96 = 420.47

so making this move u will make on average 420 chips, so this is an EV+ shove

IDONKCALLU

thanks sikas just unlucky i ran up against your 10s i woulda done the same thing 9 out of 10 times it it was a big tourney mtt i would of played it different and fold maybe but as it was a sattelite and blinds up quick and needed a double up thought i got 2 ways to win every 1 folds pick up 500 chips or get called and most likely a flip 

grantorino

sikas, if they all call with 11% of hands we dont get folds anywhere near 89% of time. 4 other players live means we get called 44% (I think?) of time. Also we sometimes get called in more than one spot. Would think its still +EV though.

sikas

yeah u may be correct there, yeah im thinking multiway, my math is flawed, as i remember tho the table was 4-handed so were likely to get called 33% but still if it were 5-handed with 44% probability of getting called it works out just over 200 cEV+, so slightly more marginal but defo a shove imo

fwiw if it was 6-9 handed and u were utg+1 with at least 5 more to act, its gets ever so more marginal, i doubt it would b an edge i would be pushing

Luke_Jones

It's not a play for 1st place tourney it's survive and win there are 64 players left he is in 48th! place and has less then 10 bb. If your going to go on the maths i see up there then play every single hand becaouse it's nearly the same odds. Now me personaly if im on a table with a short stack i dont like calling light when i know i have somone who is waiting to shove with any A. The question was is this a good spot  when u not too far from money answer for me is no let the rest of them take the risks and just try and move up the ladder. look at it this way if u win and double up few mins later ur going to be in the same situation next blind level if u planning on keeping that same play your going to have to do it say another 4 time's to make the entry. do you think if you make this play time and time again you will still be in there ? 

IDONKCALLU

top 21 go through tho luke i know i have to survive but i dnt want to get blinded out either i needed a double up and this was a good as spot as any