Cricket tip - Printing money.

EvilPingu

Sri Lanka or Draw @ 1/8 is brilliant value IMO, even at that price.

Why?

Sri Lanka currently lead by 426 with 3 wickets remaining in their second innings at the close of play on Day 3. Even an overnight declaration would mean that South Africa would have to break a world record for biggest 4th innings run chase to win the game (In 2,025 Test Matches so far since 1877, the record 4th innings run chase is 418, I believe). It's likely that Sri Lanka will bat again tomorrow morning, extending their lead further and taking more time out of the game.

For South Africa to win, they would need to get the highest innings score of the game by quite a long way in the 4th innings, at the end of a match when the pitch is most difficult to bat on. There's rain forecast tomorrow, and the players have gone off for bad light the last 2 days before the scheduled close of play, so even if Sri Lanka don't get the lead to 480 or 500 tomorrow morning and bat South Africa completely out of the game, then it's still unlikely that South Africa will even have enough time to try to get the runs required.

Because of the weather, a draw is still a possibility, hence why I'd recommend this rather than Sri Lanka to win at 2/5, as South Africa are capable of batting for long enough to hold on for a draw if the weather takes enough time out of the game for Sri Lanka to not be able to bowl them out second time around.

1/8 that a World Record won't be broken isn't bad though, to be honest :P

EvilPingu

SL or Draw is still only 1/10, South Africa are 99/3 chasing 450.

EvilPingu

113/4, and odds are now 1/100 - Not worth it anymore IMO.

simuk

At all your points of betting the draw was incredibly unlikely, would have been better just backing the SL win alone!

EvilPingu

In Response to Re: Cricket tip - Printing money.:

At all your points of betting the draw was incredibly unlikely, would have been better just backing the SL win alone!
Posted by simuk

The weather site I was using said it was going to rain in Durban on both days...I should probably know better than to listen to a weather forecast by now, lol

delaney09

im confused have you written the odds correctly 1/8 (putting 8 on your winning 1) or did you mean 8/1 (put 1 on to win 8) if its the former rather than latter this isn't great value for anyone as you are basically being told it is a dead cert. it is going to be a SL win or a draw bets like these are only worth it when lumping 1000's on not a few quid

EvilPingu

In Response to Re: Cricket tip - Printing money.:

im confused have you written the odds correctly 1/8 (putting 8 on your winning 1) or did you mean 8/1 (put 1 on to win 8) if its the former rather than latter this isn't great value for anyone as you are basically being told it is a dead cert. it is going to be a SL win or a draw bets like these are only worth it when lumping 1000's on not a few quid
Posted by delaney09

No, 1/8 was right. And it was a dead cert, more chance of hell freezing over than SA chasing down 450 tbh...

delaney09

yeah but seriously how much are you staking here for it to be remotely worth while cause putting something like say £20 on to win £2.50 doesn't sound like too much fun or brilliant value to me

IDONKCALLU

but 1/8 is not great value unless u have 800 in ya bankroll to win a £100 

delaney09

In Response to Re: Cricket tip - Printing money.:

but 1/8 is not great value unless u have 800 in ya bankroll to win a £100 
Posted by IDONKCALLU

exactly what i was trying to say this is only worthwhile if you can lump tonnes on it not single/double figures as what you would stand to win wouldn't even get you a packet of cigarettes

simuk

The 1/8 at the time wasn't a bad bet to be fair at that point in the match. 

achill

1/8 is rubbish odds and i would'nt back any team at the start of a match at those odds but after day three of this test 1/20 would have been about the right odds so 1/8 did offer great value.
 
I bet £80 to win a tenner (yippee) but how i looked at it, was having £10 of the bookies money to stick on a acca for the weekend. 

be lucky