Sat into SPT Semi on the bubble

Mohican

Should I have folded? I have no fold equity but i'm sure I'm ahead(due to his raise size). If I fold I have close to no fold  equity if I shove first and none to a min raise ahead of me. That said, should I have waited for a better spot. Any other tourney final table I wouldn't bother posting as this we be a natural shove for me.
Any thoughts people of sky??

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Mohican	Small blind		600.00	600.00	5627.50
DN34689	Big blind		1200.00	1800.00	7070.00
	Your hole cards	7 7
pagey44	Fold
daggers302	Raise		3600.00	5400.00	7927.50
beefy777	Fold
Mohican	All-in		5627.50	11027.50	0.00
DN34689	Fold
daggers302	Call		2627.50	13655.00	5300.00
Mohican	Show	7 7
daggers302	Show	K A
Flop
		5 8 K
Turn
		J
River
		10
daggers302	Win	Pair of Kings	13655.00		18955.00

grantorino

othe stacks?

looks like a fold to me, but dont really play sats/dyms

IDONKCALLU

easy fold here after a raiser at best ya flipping fold and find a better spot 

Mohican

In Response to Re: Sat into SPT Semi on the bubble:

othe stacks? looks like a fold to me, but dont really play sats/dyms
Posted by grantorino

5 left,4 paid. I'm short stack, bb is next up the food chain.

rancid

what stack has beefy got ?

close one

prefer shoving this

oppo raise suggests hand

probs a fold

Poker_Fail

Fold, you're flipping at best, shove next unopened spot

EvilPingu

I fold here all day long against an opponent with that stack. I don't need to even run this through an ICM calculator to tell you that calling on the bubble with 77 in a tournament with this sort of structure is terribad.

It's even worse against this opponent because he has no reason to make that play without a hand. He's got 10 big blinds, and there's 2 shorter stacks than him, so he's not actually in that bad shape to cash, and the prize for 1st and 4th are identical. However, if he loses the hand, he'll become the shortest stack. Why would he want to jeopardise his chances of cashing by messing about with a rubbish hand just trying to pick up a couple of blinds with 3 players to act behind him, when there's very little benefit in picking up them 1.5 big blinds?

Therefore, I'd assign him a pretty narrow range here when he raises. If we go for top 5% of starting hands, that's TT+, AJs+, AQo+, I believe, maybe 99 as well. Against that range, 77 would be flipping at best, and usually dominated.

Your 2 problems here are:

1) 77 plays terribly against his range - You're hoping to be racing, and even though you're racing this time, that won't always be the case, and even when you win you still may not cash.

Put it this way: Considering there's another short stack with a pretty similar stack to you, you'd probably expect to cash around 50% of the time. If you call here with 77, will you cash 50% of the time? As you're racing at best, and usually dominated, that's a pretty emphatic "No", and that's why this is an easy fold. 

2) He's the aggressor. In Poker, you'd much rather be the aggressor. Honestly, I'd rather open the betting by shoving with 72o than get involved here, because my opponent(s) would then need a hand to call me with, and most of the time everyone folds and I pick up the blinds.

I'd imagine if you ran this hand through an ICM calculator, it'd probably tell you that against this guy's range, with the chip stacks, and the prize structure, you should only shove here with AA and KK. QQ is marginal, and JJ-, AK- is an easy fold.

Batkin88

fold this deep you shouldnt be getting it in after a raise your just flipping. Best off shoving with 7 2 o/s next hand

Mohican

Thanks people for confirming what I thought. I ummed and aaaahhed and then the 'aaah fork it, call' idea popped into my head and I was flipping. I forgot how much fold equity I still had with nearly 5 bb's on the bubble.