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Tricky Decision Early in the Saturday Roller

edited January 2012 in The Poker Clinic
This is 20 minutes into the Roller on Saturday night. The opponent had just moved to the table and I had never heard of him so obviously no read at the time.
I'll let you share your opinions before I give my reasons behind the desion I made.
Do you; fold, call or raise?
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
hurst05 Small blind  20.00 20.00 9270.00
Nutter5932 Big blind  40.00 60.00 4375.00
  Your hole cards
  • A
  • Q
     
Kevilfish Raise  120.00 180.00 5960.00
penguin7 Fold     
xxx Call  120.00 300.00 5105.00
hurst05 Fold     
Nutter5932 Fold     
Flop
   
  • A
  • 10
  • 5
     
Kevilfish Bet  200.00 500.00 5760.00
xxx Call  200.00 700.00 4905.00
Turn
   
  • 10
     
Kevilfish Bet  350.00 1050.00 5410.00
xxx Call  350.00 1400.00 4555.00
River
   
  • J
     
Kevilfish Bet  700.00 2100.00 4710.00
xxx Raise  2100.00 4200.00 2455.00
Kevilfish

Comments

  • edited January 2012
    I would personally sigh, fold. No missed draws out there so hard to put him on a bluff and you can't beat his value raises. "find a better spot."
  • edited January 2012
    agree with salad here mate, looks like you aint beating much. time to shut down i guess, we all know aq loses in spots like this ;-)
  • edited January 2012
    Reluctant fold, you're likely well behind his river re-raising range.

    Awkward spot OOP. I like to keep the pot small and check/call (or check/check) from the turn here. Why?

    1. You could have gone to showdown for the same price (or cheaper) than you paid to fold as played. Even if you lose you get to see his cards and gain some valuable information.

    2. If his range does include weaker aces and missed draws you can win instead of being pushed off on the river.

    3. You also have the option to fold and save some chips if he bombs the pot on either street and you choose to believe him.
  • edited January 2012
    Thanks for the comments guys.

    I decided to fold this hand. I felt I'm beat by quite a lot. AK (unlikely - he flats pre), AJ, AT, possibly pocket 5's or a hand like T9 or JT of hearts (middle pair and a back-door flush draw in position getting 5/2 to call flop).

    The only made hand I can beat is A9/8 which is very unlikely to be raising on that river with no kicker.


    GaryQQQ: I understand your points on check/calling, I have made this move previously and agree with the benefits that you get to the river cheaply but, do you lose value out of mid-Aces or a hand like AJ (before it hit the river) that are going to call you down?

    Possibly another topic for discussion.
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