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What Do I Do? You Decide.lol

edited January 2012 in Poker Chat
I have been through a slump on Sky Poker recently and am deciding whether to deposit, to move sites or whether I should give up all together? I only play MTT's so know that it can be extended periods between wins, and that you shouldn't hope to cash everytime. I have cashed a total of £750ish this month so far, yet have no bankroll left after only playing Main events. I know I'm not good enough yet to be making massive money from poker, nor am I nieve enough to believe in conspiracy theories, yet my results have become a joke and my game isn't in bad shape. I am struggling to justify depositing again and paying for tonights Main(£33). So I'll throw it out there and see what you guys think. Should I Deposit and just wait for the swing in variance, Should I look for a new site to play on, or Should I give up on poker and accept that I'm not good enough? Anyone with an opinion then let me know. Thanks. Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham
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Comments

  • edited January 2012

    Hi Shaun.

    MTT's are, by definition, high variance.

    Why not try some DYM's, or even better, Cash? - the variance in these is much less.
  • edited January 2012
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    Hi Shaun. MTT's are, by definition, high variance. Why not try some DYM's, or even better, Cash? - the variance in these is much less.
    Posted by Tikay10
    I totally understand that MTT's are 'high variance', but I can't reconcile the difference in my results. I play every main event every night apart from Sunday, and I used to regularly cash(over an extended sample size) and have made many final tables. I have won a main event on Sky and several on other sites too, so unless they were just mightily lucky, I must have a modicum of skill. In the last two months my results have been laughable except for a 4 day period where I ran well and then haven't had a single cash since. I could try DYM's or Cash but I don't enjoy them. I love the buzz of playing a tournament but can't afford to just keep pumping money into my poker account for no return. I don't like moaning, whether from myself or others but feel at my wits end with it at the moment and just wanted an outsiders observations. Thanks once again Tikay. Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham
  • edited January 2012
    I take it you have tried sat's and semi's to reduce costs and maximise cashes?
  • edited January 2012
    Shaun. if you are intent on only playing MTT, surely the way to go would be to play lower buy in and the satellites for the main events!
  • edited January 2012
    Yeah sounds like you're playing out of your bankroll at the minute.

    Try the sats to reduce your costs or just move down to some smaller buyin tournaments.

  • edited January 2012
    Seems like the bankroll you have put in to your account wasn't enough to cope with the high variance swings of MTT as Tikay has touched on. Like they say even the best players are lucky to get over 25% of cashes regularly. I guess if you are trying to justify putting money in then you probably shouldn't be using it :)

    I would play cash but if you don't like it then smaller MTT buy ins plus the main event satellites rather than buying straight in if that's what you're doing.

    Every time you write that you're a Villa fan in Birmingham Shaun I think the poker gods give you a bad beat :)
  • edited January 2012

    Thanks Belsibub. I have tried sats to reduce costs. Only problem with them is that the sats are a big percentage of the seat price. For example, if I tried to sat into tonights, a direct sat is £7.20. That is 20% of a seat, so if you don't qualify then you are just increasing the price of the seat. So if you try once and fail, then buy in direct, a min cash barely shows a profit. If you play the mini sats that get you into a semi/direct sat then you have to win two tourneys to get into the Main. Thanks for another opinion though. Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham

  • edited January 2012
    In Response to What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    I have been through a slump on Sky Poker recently and am deciding whether to deposit, to move sites or whether I should give up all together? I only play MTT's so know that it can be extended periods between wins, and that you shouldn't hope to cash everytime. I have cashed a total of £750ish this month so far, yet have no bankroll left after only playing Main events. I know I'm not good enough yet to be making massive money from poker, nor am I nieve enough to believe in conspiracy theories, yet my results have become a joke and my game isn't in bad shape. I am struggling to justify depositing again and paying for tonights Main(£33). So I'll throw it out there and see what you guys think. Should I Deposit and just wait for the swing in variance, Should I look for a new site to play on, or Should I give up on poker and accept that I'm not good enough? Anyone with an opinion then let me know. Thanks. Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham
    Posted by shaun84
    Hi Shaun.
    Looking at your stats you clearly like to play a lot of Bounty Hunters. Whilst MTT's have a much bigger variance than cash, I would say the variance in Bounty Hunter Tournies is even greater than NLH MTT's.

    Your losses in ME's can be put down to bad BRM (Bank Roll Management) I like to play one or two ME's per week, but try to build up my winnings in smaller NLH events such as deepstacks and treat myself to an ME if I manage to bink a couple of decent cashes.

    I am a recreational player and accept that on average I lose £0.65p per game when I play MTT's, but also know this could be a lot worse if I played above my bank roll.

    I would suggest coming down a few levels and playing NLH between £3 - £5.00 and treat yourself to an ME if you bink a couple of wins a week. You will probably find you enjoy it a lot more as well, as there's not so much pressure to cash in every game.

    Best of luck in whatever you decide.
  • edited January 2012
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    Seems like the bankroll you have put in to your account wasn't enough to cope with the high variance swings of MTT as Tikay has touched on. Like they say even the best players are lucky to get over 25% of cashes regularly. I guess if you are trying to justify putting money in then you probably shouldn't be using it :) I would play cash but if you don't like it then smaller MTT buy ins plus the main event satellites rather than buying straight in if that's what you're doing. Every time you write that you're a Villa fan in Birmingham Shaun I think the poker gods give you a bad beat :)
    Posted by DaveOwlX
    Thanks for your reply DaveOwlX. I have more than enough money to play every night. What I meant when I said I was trying to 'Justify' depositing, was the fact that if you where 'throwing money away' you would stop, regardless of whether you could afford it or not. I was just trying to find out an honest opinion of whether people thought I was throwing good money after bad or whether it was completely down to variance and I just need to deposit and continue playing for a few more weeks. Thanks. Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham
  • edited January 2012
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    In Response to What Do I Do? You Decide.lol : Hi Shaun. Looking at your stats you clearly like to play a lot of Bounty Hunters. Whilst MTT's have a much bigger variance than cash, I would say the variance in Bounty Hunter Tournies is even greater than NLH MTT's. Your losses in ME's can be put down to bad BRM (Bank Roll Management) I like to play one or two ME's per week, but try to build up my winnings in smaller NLH events such as deepstacks and treat myself to an ME if I manage to bink a couple of decent cashes. I am a recreational player and accept that on average I lose £0.65p per game when I play MTT's, but also know this could be a lot worse if I played above my bank roll. I would suggest coming down a few levels and playing NLH between £3 - £5.00 and treat yourself to an ME if you bink a couple of wins a week. You will probably find you enjoy it a lot more as well, as there's not so much pressure to cash in every game. Best of luck in whatever you decide.
    Posted by POKERTREV
    I used to win/final table at least 1 Bounty Hunter each week(£11 buy-in £500 GTD) and then have all my Main Event cashes on top. I don't think I'd play if I needed to stick to small buy in games. It doesn't give the same buzz playing for small amounts. I appreciate the reply from someone as highly esteemed as yourself PokerTrev and have considered cutting down my Bounty Hunter participation. In all honesty I hadn't considered the fact that they are higher variance than NLHE, even though it is obvious once someone says it.lol. I guess I'll have to just hope the swing comes back in my direction soon. Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham
  • edited January 2012
    I agree with all of the above, rather then playing every Main, drop down the levels and play £5.50 tourneys until you have enough 50-100 buys in for higher tourneys or satelite in. 

    I direct buy in the odd MTT out of my bankroll but if your doing every night, you will need to run good to to keep playing. 

    Tourneys are high variance, so if your prepared to play them expect long periods of nothing. Im sure Scotty77 wont mind me saying but he is having a barren run with them so even the best of us cant withstand the variance in them. 

    Regards
    John
    Charlton fan from Sevenoaks :) 
  • edited January 2012
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    In Response to What Do I Do? You Decide.lol : Hi Shaun. Looking at your stats you clearly like to play a lot of Bounty Hunters. Whilst MTT's have a much bigger variance than cash, I would say the variance in Bounty Hunter Tournies is even greater than NLH MTT's. Your losses in ME's can be put down to bad BRM (Bank Roll Management) I like to play one or two ME's per week, but try to build up my winnings in smaller NLH events such as deepstacks and treat myself to an ME if I manage to bink a couple of decent cashes. I am a recreational player and accept that on average I lose £0.65p per game when I play MTT's, but also know this could be a lot worse if I played above my bank roll. I would suggest coming down a few levels and playing NLH between £3 - £5.00 and treat yourself to an ME if you bink a couple of wins a week. You will probably find you enjoy it a lot more as well, as there's not so much pressure to cash in every game. Best of luck in whatever you decide.
    Posted by POKERTREV
    When you say 'Looking at your stats', is that on SharkScope or is that on Sky? If so, is there a way I can look?lol. Thanks again. Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham
  • edited January 2012
    Sounds like a fairly typical downswing to me, all MTTers are guaranteed to get one sooner or later. A couple of months or more without a decent result is common even if you play daily. I recommended dropping stakes and playing in tournies with smaller fields until you start winning again. When your confidence returns and your bankroll is heading the right way you can move back to your usual games. Maybe try STTs for a while.

    A high profile Team51 member had a similar downswing recently. He said it felt like he'd forgotten how to play poker, suddenly he could barely win a hand, let alone a tournament. He decided to go right back to square one and went back to playing the £1.15 DYMs he last played when he first joined Sky. Within a few days his confidence returned, so did the results. He's now built his way back up to the biggest games. We could all learn a lesson from his example. Good luck.
  • edited January 2012
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol : I totally understand that MTT's are 'high variance', but I can't reconcile the difference in my results. I play every main event every night apart from Sunday, and I used to regularly cash(over an extended sample size) and have made many final tables. I have won a main event on Sky and several on other sites too, so unless they were just mightily lucky, I must have a modicum of skill. In the last two months my results have been laughable except for a 4 day period where I ran well and then haven't had a single cash since. I could try DYM's or Cash but I don't enjoy them. I love the buzz of playing a tournament but can't afford to just keep pumping money into my poker account for no return. I don't like moaning, whether from myself or others but feel at my wits end with it at the moment and just wanted an outsiders observations. Thanks once again Tikay. Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham
    Posted by shaun84

    Shaun, I MUST say this, even though it is part of my role to promote, amongst other things, Tourneys on Sky Poker.

    MTT's are VERY high variance. Even the greatest players sometimes go through a lean spell. In the Live arena, I know of any number of quality players who have suffered a "drought". (Mine is going in for 9 years now....).

    You need to give this some thought - Cash, & DYMs, are MUCH lower variance. Or why not try the new "Timed Tourneys"? - again, these have much lower variance, as a greater % of the field gets paid.

    The last thing anyone wants if for you to...

    1) Go busto

    2) Get "down" on yourself, & not enjoy your poker.

    As for tonight, for a whole £5, you can play the Forum DTD - THREE Tourneys, all deep stacks, for a fiver!

    Give the Main Events a rest for a week or two, play a bit smaller, & fingers crossed, it will turn for you soon. After all, even Villa won on Saturday.

    Good Luck.
  • edited January 2012
    i understand what you are saying but i do not understand the "new site option" if you can afford a deposit on another site, then why not deposit here?? the variance on other sites is exactly the same as here so may as well stay here imo!!
  • edited January 2012
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    I agree with all of the above, rather then playing every Main, drop down the levels and play £5.50 tourneys until you have enough 50-100 buys in for higher tourneys or satelite in.  I direct buy in the odd MTT out of my bankroll but if your doing every night, you will need to run good to to keep playing.  Tourneys are high variance, so if your prepared to play them expect long periods of nothing. Im sure Scotty77 wont mind me saying but he is having a barren run with them so even the best of us cant withstand the variance in them.  Regards John Charlton fan from Sevenoaks :) 
    Posted by YOUNG_GUN
    Nice :)  You've copied my style. It feels good doesn't it.lol. Once you start you can't stop though.
  • edited January 2012
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    [QUOTE]i understand what you are saying but i do not understand the "new site option" if you can afford a deposit on another site, then why not deposit here?? the variance on other sites is exactly the same as here so may as well stay here imo!!
    Posted by bigflop1


    Exactly - to suggest otherwise suggests the bad run has "got into your head", as that's just not logical.
  • edited January 2012
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    i understand what you are saying but i do not understand the "new site option" if you can afford a deposit on another site, then why not deposit here?? the variance on other sites is exactly the same as here so may as well stay here imo!!
    Posted by bigflop1
    In all honesty, I wasn't ever contemplating leaving Sky, just put that bit in to get a couple of replies.lol. Thought a few people would say 'Sling Your Hook', and others would spout their usual conspiracy about it being Skys fault. That would have filled the thread with responses and kept it on the first page of GPC which would, in turn, give me the best opportunity to get the responses I needed. Thanks for noticing though.lol. Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham
  • edited January 2012
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol : [QUOTE ]i understand what you are saying but i do not understand the "new site option" if you can afford a deposit on another site, then why not deposit here?? the variance on other sites is exactly the same as here so may as well stay here imo!! Posted by bigflop1
    Exactly - to suggest otherwise suggests the bad run has "got into your head", as that's just not logical.
    Posted by Tikay10

    See above. It was a blatant attempt to inflate the amount of responses I got.lol
  • edited January 2012

    You to me see a quite accomplished player just having a bad run.If you just drop to a slightly lower level and play well i think then you will be more happy to deposit for higher games,Good luck
    Jim spurs fan from Chelmsford.:):)

  • edited January 2012
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    You to me see a quite accomplished player just having a bad run.If you just drop to a slightly lower level and play well i think then you will be more happy to deposit for higher games,Good luck Jim spurs fan from Chelmsford.:):)
    Posted by cleaverjim
    Thanks Jim. I appreciate the reply mate.
  • edited January 2012
    Shaun, over the last 5 years as a tournament player I have seen plenty of upswings and downswings. And the downs can get so bad that you do start to doubt your ability to play the game at all.

    At the moment I am rarely playing the big tournaments, sometimes satelliting into the main events and Rollers. When you are questioning your own talent always seems to be the time when your kings run into aces or you make a crucial error. But I just see this as sound bankroll management.

    Sometimes a break from the game helps, but only if you are not enjoying it. What you need to do is find ways of continuing to love the game while getting your form and confidence back.

    Its crazy to be  depositing regularly and just crossing your fingers that it will all come together again in a main event. Instead of spending £30 on one event, why not play 4 or 5 for the same money? There is almost as much fun to be had from final tabling a £5 tournament or even a £10 BH.

    Personally I am against going down the sit and go route. It is something I have tried with only limited success in the past. Although I managed to beat the rake at lower levels, moving up its harder to beat those STT specialists, and more important it can affect your tournament game. Sit and go play is often more negative and then loses you that spark that used to win tournaments.

    But recently I have started to enjoy cash, and now have a couple of hour long sessions every day at 20nl tables.
    I also play a lot of hilo omaha, and think I have a small edge over most of the players here (blatant brag ... I just won a £1.10 entry tourny as I am writing this, only a tenner, but every little helps !}

    Playing cash and omaha stops me getting bored with holdem tournies, and am sure will help my tournament game long term. And this month it has more than paid for my tournament entries including SPT.

    Tikays suggestion of playing the DTD is excellent. I won it a few weeks back, and it gave me great satisfaction and a bit of a lift too.

    So variety is the spice of life, find a way of enjoying your poker, regenerating your confidence, and eventually the results will come.

    I had a lengthy downswing last year, and the year before too. But both times I came back with 2 or 3 main event wins in a week. Thats the lot of a tournament player. I will never let a bad run interfere with fulfilling my poker ambitions and neither should you.











  • edited January 2012

    Superb Post, Tony. There speaks a man who, umm, speaks.
  • edited January 2012
    Thanks for all the replies. It is nice to ask a question and get loads of replies, none of which were 'nasty' or derogatory. I will be in the Main Event tonight and hope that my luck changes.lol. Won't complain if I don't cash/win, will just keep reading the books and praying that the downswing is arrested and the upswing begins.lol.
    Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham.
  • edited January 2012
    I've nothing against Birmingham or the people but I'd prefer a villa in the med ;-)


  • edited January 2012
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol : Shaun, I MUST say this, even though it is part of my role to promote, amongst other things, Tourneys on Sky Poker. MTT's are VERY high variance. Even the greatest players sometimes go through a lean spell. In the Live arena, I know of any number of quality players who have suffered a "drought". (Mine is going in for 9 years now....). You need to give this some thought - Cash, & DYMs, are MUCH lower variance. Or why not try the new "Timed Tourneys"? - again, these have much lower variance, as a greater % of the field gets paid. The last thing anyone wants if for you to... 1) Go busto 2) Get "down" on yourself, & not enjoy your poker. As for tonight, for a whole £5, you can play the Forum DTD - THREE Tourneys, all deep stacks, for a fiver! Give the Main Events a rest for a week or two, play a bit smaller, & fingers crossed, it will turn for you soon. After all, even Villa won on Saturday. Good Luck.
    Posted by Tikay10
    hang on!...i thought you said "quality" players....

    good advice thought ,play smaller tourny's with a bit of cash on the side.and try to sat into main events(even if you dont win a seat these games are great value for £5 ish for a couple hours of poker)
  • edited January 2012
    NO change of luck in tonights Main Event. I got called by K,Q off with no pair no draw and got beat by two pair on turn and river vs my pocket 10's. Guess people will call with anything. I'll have to evaluate things tomorrow. It is starting to get beyond a joke now though. I am definitely not enjoying playing at the moment as I am expecting to get beaten every time. I get it in and know that they shouldn't be calling yet they do and they get there. I know Tikay will say something along the lines of, " You want them to call when you get it in ahead". I'd say, "Only if it holds up".lol. I know this is a moan, which I hate, but I can't bite my tongue much longer. How do I keep playing if the right moves are punished so often? Its OK to say that we want them to call, as in the long run we will make money. How big does the sample size need to be for that to bear out?
  • edited January 2012
    Not poker related but paragrahs would help a lot mate ;).
  • edited January 2012
    In Response to Re: What Do I Do? You Decide.lol:
    Not poker related but paragrahs would help a lot mate ;).
    Posted by Dudeskin8
    I'll take that into consideration in future mate.
  • edited January 2012

    Shaun, you understand that mtt's are a high variance game. Extended periods of poor results are part and parcel of being an mtt player and have to be accepted if that is your chosen game. Profitability can often depend on the turn of one card or the outcome of one hand, and that is the life of a tournament player. It's all highs and lows and invariably there are more lows than highs.

    I've played online mtt's for approx. 9 years and had some wonderful runs and some extended downswings. It's all part of being exclusively a main event mtt player. I'm currently on a 200 game downswing and although I've had one main event win and a few cashes in there, it's been mostly losses. I'm not particularly worried that I'm in the midst of a downswing as I've encountered these many times over the years.
     
    One way to even out the downswings is to up the volume with lower buy-in mtt's rather than going for the big one every night. When your game is ''off'' or you're in the midst of a bad run you will get very disillusioned paying out large buy-ins for little or no return and that in itself will affect your game. My personal way is to drop the volume, play when I'm in the right frame of mind, and see how it goes. 

    The advice about cash and stt's is good - personally it doesn't ''float my boat'' and playing just one or two mtt's a day suits me fine. Changing sites can work to give your confidence a boost, or, confirm just how bad you're running - so that's not really a remedy. The staying within your B/R is good advice if it applies. I get the impression it's more confidence thing with you rather than B/R management. Taking a complete break can and often does work wonders for some players.

    So there are lots of ''remedies'' none of which are guaranteed to work for you. When you have considered your finances and made an honest assessment of how you are playing at the moment, try to work out for yourself what is best for you. We can all attempt to help you by giving advice relating to what works for us but the real solution is to find out what works for you. The way you react to your current downswing and the way you (hopefully) bounce back afterwards will stand you in good stead for when it happens in the future.

    The only thing I can guarantee is that it will happen again in the future - it's an ugly but integral part of the game.

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