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% Play??
I dont really tend to play % with my hands but im always hearing people talking about it but i dont really get it?? for example if i have 2 hearts and a flop comes another 2 hearts and someone raises or goes all in how can i fully work out 100% what my % is on winning with a flush when i dont know what hearts have already been folded by other players?
I mind sound daft here but if someone could explain it to me please cause for me it just seems to be an excuse for someone winning or a excuse for someone to moan about losing ie how can you call that!? your % or winning was so small lol
Comments
Examples
AK v pocket pair is 45%/55%
Hitting a flush if you have four suited on flop 20%.+
Hitting up and down str8 from flop 32%
Some surprise new players too
78 suited v AA 23%/77%
45 suited v AK 23%/77%
Pokerstove is useful, but you can never account for the cards folded by other players.
Imagine you have a set of 10s on the turn and you want to know the chance that the river card will be the fourth 10, because you have no idea whether the 10 is in someone elses hand or still in the deck, it could be any one of the 46 cards you havn't seen (you've seen your 2 and 4 on the board so far) so you treat it as a 1 in 46 chance of happening.
An easy way to think about our odds is to simply consider each unkown card is worth 2%. It's not totally accurate, since after the flop we'll be aware of 5 cards, leaving 47 unknown, but it's the simple way and will get you close enough to the right odds to not be too concerned about the margin of error.
We have 67 of hearts on a flop of Ace of hearts, 10 of hearts and the 3 of spades and our opponent has gone all-in.
When we believe that our opponent has an Ace in their hand, we know that we need one of the nine hearts to make a flush and win the hand. With two cards yet to come on the board we can work out that each heart is worth 2%, so there is an 18% chance of a heart coming on the turn and another 18% chance of a heart coming on the river. We can add these up and say there is a 36% chance of another heart coming by the end of the hand.
Remember those are approximate numbers but it's the easiest way to think about it.