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33 and flop a set, advice please
£11 BH
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| davelufc | Small blind | 15.00 | 15.00 | 1845.00 | |
| joker69 | Big blind | 30.00 | 45.00 | 1845.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| cashyAA | Fold | ||||
| jjbails | Call | 30.00 | 75.00 | 2460.00 | |
| icnoships | Fold | ||||
| cyberdog | Raise | 120.00 | 195.00 | 2260.00 | |
| davelufc | Call | 105.00 | 300.00 | 1740.00 | |
| joker69 | Fold | ||||
| jjbails | Call | 90.00 | 390.00 | 2370.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| davelufc | ? | ||||
Comments
If he checks behind there is a good chance he has missed the flop and has for example AK but no spades and essentially is giving up on the hand. He would be losing to so many hands and anyone who is drawing to a flush would equity wise be ahead of him as well - cbetting here could be like pouring money into a blackhole. If he has flopped the flush he would probably c-bet because he will expect you to assume he would do that and you assume he could have anything here. If he has the Ace or King of spades, maybe the Queen of spades in his hand or an over pair, or both if he had AA with the Ace of spades etc he would probably bet and almost be looking to get it in very likely here.
The only worry I think you do have is if you check and he checks behind something like AJ with the jack of spades where he might not be sure his Jack high flush will win him the hand, but is pot controlling his draw as he cannot stand a reraise on the flop without a draw to the nuts
If there is any further resistance, ie he 4bets, I'd be looking to get it all in here on the flop. It is a bounty hunter so if he has a flush draw he may want to gamble with you to win your bounty (as you have a smaller stack than him). You have about 65% equity vs AA (with the Ace of spades), 72% equity with AK with the (Ace or King of spades) and if they have flopped a flush, round about 34% equity. Your winning so often here, I don't see how you can get away from this hand. Just make sure you get it all in on the flop when you are pretty sure you are winning. If the action goes - you check, he bets, you call -the alarm bells should be ringing for every hand you are already beating like AA with no spades. If he is on the flush draw, he might check behind if you check the turn (I don't see why you would check call the turn and then lead out, just reraise flop IMO) because he knows you are probably strong here and if he bets, you could reraise here and take him off the hand. If you have been really tricky and played a flush this way say a king high flush, if another spade comes, he could stack you.
Let me know how you got on. Hope you were the winner
Tricky one this,Id prob be doing my stack here in a torn, we call to hit our set and we have yes there is better sets or made flush but i think im check raising or calling any allin here tbh.
Gives us chance to get value from weaker hands / control the pot size.
Its not a tricky spot and we are not trying to potcontrol
The chips were going in anyway!! c/r/all in would have just prolonged the agony,!!!
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