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my little experiment.
I start this at the start of the week. However wasnt going to post about it but felt i would. After Dohhhhh said it was a bad idea.
After grinding mainly tournaments ive decided that im going to note down every flip i win or lose on excel with a total number of flips taken. Over time this number should in theory be around 50/50.
Currently im on 19 flips and ill update over so many milestones.
Milestones will be in units of 50.
So my first update will be at 50 flips.
This was more of an experiment for myself to prove that it evens out over time. However since im told its a bad idea id also like input.
Ill also update this after every flip and live games ill note down on my mobile.
Flips count as 2 overs v PP all in pre flop or statistics within 2% of 50/50 post flop so 52/48 at worst.
After grinding mainly tournaments ive decided that im going to note down every flip i win or lose on excel with a total number of flips taken. Over time this number should in theory be around 50/50.
Currently im on 19 flips and ill update over so many milestones.
Milestones will be in units of 50.
So my first update will be at 50 flips.
This was more of an experiment for myself to prove that it evens out over time. However since im told its a bad idea id also like input.
Ill also update this after every flip and live games ill note down on my mobile.
Flips count as 2 overs v PP all in pre flop or statistics within 2% of 50/50 post flop so 52/48 at worst.
Comments
However thats on an extremely small volume JJ and over 100 i expect it to be a little closer, over 1000 even closer and over 10000 even closer.
This is for me more to prove that long term that it is around 50/50 long term.
Admittedly ive been scoring at the end of sessions which is why i discussed this with you and you brought up a more than valid point that i may forget the odd flip, probably one that i win. So ive decided that ill note it up as it happens.
If it seems the correct thing to do ill even reset the stats to 0/0
Yes they must be 48/52 or 52/48 or closer to 50/50 to count as a flip m8.
Multiway hand such as AK v QQ v JJ does not count as its not technically a flip
100,000 flips
Seems like a waste of time, just like poker feels sometimes )
however i reset it to flips after this thread was started
currently 1 taken.
1) Not every flip is a flip. For instance, 88 vs AQo AIPF, you're probably looking at about 56/44 in favour of 88 - However, T9s vs 22 AIPF is about the same, but in favour of the T9s.
2) 50 flips isn't enough. 500 flips isn't enough. 5,000 flips isn't enough. Hell, maybe even 50,000 flips isn't enough.
If you've got Excel, which I assume you do, you can effectively model the same thing by doing the following:
1) In cell A1, type "=Randbetween(0, 1)" - This will randomly select an integer between 0 and 1 inclusive. Obviously 50% chance of it being a 1, 50% chance of it being a 0.
2) In cell B1, type "=A1" - This will obviously copy the result from cell A1 into cell B1. If the number in Cell A1 changes, don't worry, it's not a problem. The reason for this is if you try to do the "=SUM" formula on the cells with the "=RANDBETWEEN" formula in, Excel freaks out.
3) Use the fill handle to copy the same formulas as in cells A1 and B1 downwards, go however far you want, it doesn't really matter, although make sure there's at least as many, if not more, rows filled than you want results for. If you want to do 25,000 flips, use the fill handle to copy the same formula down to cells A25000 and B25000 respectively. You've got over a million rows on the most recent version of excel, and even 65,536 on Excel 2003 if you've still got the really old Excel, so space shouldn't be an issue.
4) Pick how many flips you want to do. If you want to do 50, type "=SUM(B1:B50)" in a random cell somewhere. Doesn't really matter as long as it's out of the way of columns A and B, and you can see it. If you wanted to do 500 flips, you'd change the B50 bit to B500. All this does is basically 0+0+1+1+1+1+1+0+0+1+0+1+0+0+1......etc - treat 1's as winning a flip and 0's as losing a flip. The cell with the sum formula will basically count your "flips won". The number in this box will automatically update every time you generate another sample of "hands"
5) Press F9 and it'll put another random number (either 1 or 0) in each of the cells with a "=Randbetween" formula in. You should get your results coming out as something along the lines of your population divided by 2, plus or minus a couple of standard deviations either way from time to time.
Ryan i actually value your input, and you do come up with an extremely valid point, although im looking at long term. your probably rigght that ill struggle to get a high enough volume thats why im looking at this in the long term.
However im currently increasing my grind level. Im hoping this will help with my tilt and prove i dont run as bad as i actually think.
I believe i am improving on the grind side of my game and the mental side.
I will also stop this if i find it doesnt work
I think the time it takes to do this could be better spent on getting more volume or going over hands in the clinic or over your own hands etc
GL anyway if you decide to do it , but i think you know what the answer will be anyway after so many hands.
MP
It’s just a waste of time
If we flip a coin, what happens ?
What if we flip a coin a zillion times, what are the results.
Basic theory that you should know Don
If you don’t know, I am sure we can elaborate for you
Your time would be better spent reading up on variance and properly understanding it
Gonna drive you crazy all this
say for example you win 1/19 flips yesterday if you record it that will be in your mind when you next play, so its possible it could send you on tilt faster or become disheartened and it affect your poker. If you dont record it you may just think i didnt run too well yesterday but you dont have the exact stats so psycologically it wont be harmful.
Jus up ze volume , maybe more tables then that may help your game. This will not!
so you do this for 100x flips.
You lose 80 flips and win 20.
You've 'proven' yourself to be an 'unlucky' player, what now? Your clearly not going to give the game up, you've been saying you will for some time now.
Suggestions: STOP PLAYING SATS TO BIG EVENTS, start using appropriate bankroll management for the fields you are playing, I would recommend with your history that 200 buy ins is needed for MTTs, at least 50 buy ins for cash. Be honest about your mistakes, if it would just a cooler don't beat yourself up about how you played it, conversly if you won a hand but played it badly then just admit it.
You could also rename the thread " Don's Flipping Diary"? ;-)
Then you have three outcomes.....
You lose more than you win......give up the game, you are just unlucky !
You win more than you lose.......give up the game, you are just no good !
It all balances out over time......you should be using your time better by analysing your play, not your results.
What you need to be doing is not worrying about the winning or losing of these flips(because in the long run odds will stay true) but analysing the situations in all of these flips.
Asking yourself questions like Should i have been risking it all on a flip here? Could i have played the hand differently or better?
The winning or losing is almost irrelevant compared to the necessity to analyse the situation and your motives behind your moves.
+1.Well said.
Dont see why he would need a massive sample to see how he is running, if he is just measuring flips. He just has to adjust his maths to the sample size, although running really bad over 1 million hands is obv much worse than over 100 hands. But if we go to 10 million flips we wont suddenly magically have exactly 5million wins and 5million losses
For example if he wins 40 or less flips out of 100 this has a probability of <2.5%. Thats running bad imo, although over a small sample. Out of 1000 he has ~2.5% chance of winning less than 470. Why knowing that you are running bad/good would be any use is beyond me.
Disclaimer:Math may be wrong, will explain it if anyone thinks it is and I am assuming flips are exactly 50/50 which obv isnt the case
At present its an extremely small volume but according to these stats im bang on EV
Make first milestone around the 5k mark.