Horrible spot with top set.

Pysterman

After an hour's play and an almost exactly break-even session I decide to play the last hand before the blinds come back round. Such mixed emotions on the flop...

jenko92	Big blind		£0.10	£0.10	£4.99
	Your hole cards	10 10
Pysterman	Raise		£0.30	£0.40	£12.72
DEVILFI5H	Call		£0.30	£0.70	£21.93
Prower	Call		£0.30	£1.00	£10.41
badcawl	Fold
deano1964	Fold
agb68	Call		£0.30	£1.30	£4.79
BURNINACE	Fold
jenko92	Call		£0.20	£1.50	£4.79
Flop
		10 9 8
jenko92	Check
Pysterman	Bet		£1.50	£3.00	£11.22
DEVILFI5H	Call		£1.50	£4.50	£20.43
Prower	Raise		£3.00	£7.50	£7.41
agb68	Fold
jenko92	Fold
Pysterman	Call		£1.50	£9.00	£9.72
DEVILFI5H	Call		£1.50	£10.50	£18.93
Turn
		7
Pysterman	Check
DEVILFI5H	Check
Prower	Bet		£2.00	£12.50	£5.41
Pysterman	Call		£2.00	£14.50	£7.72
DEVILFI5H	All-in		£18.93	£33.43	£0.00
Prower	All-in		£5.41	£38.84	£0.00
Pysterman	Fold

I've done the calculations and the fold here is mathematically right on the cusp. (Over time it is almost exactly 0 EV.)

But did I play the hand correctly up until that?

Dudeskin8

Shove on flop after minraise.

EvilPingu

I shove the flop with top set on that board once Prowler re-raises. We're probably miles ahead and if he's flopped a straight, then so be it, we've got 7 outs on the turn plus another 3 on the river if the turn is a brick.

NColley

I think I just shove flop after prower's min raise.

As played now, well it really is frustrating, EV Calc makes it just about a fold I think, but I don't think that the difference is great enough to make it the wrong decision either way.

Pysterman

In Response to Re: Horrible spot with top set.:

I think I just shove flop after prower's min raise. As played now, well it really is frustrating, EV Calc makes it just about a fold I think, but I don't think that the difference is great enough to make it the wrong decision either way.
Posted by NColley

I made it a very, very, very slight call (marginally better if you assume there's J or a 6 in either or both of the opponent's hands).

However, with the very, very, very slight negative implied odds of running into quads if I house up, then I estimated I should bumped it back down to about 0 EV.

I have to shoot off right now, but I'll post the maths later.

NColley

As yes, I've not taken your stack off the overshove properly, took £11 off instead of £9.

In that case your right and its a marginal call, but as I said its so close thats there's no right/wrong decision.

grantorino

3bet flop and get it in

Pysterman

In Response to Re: Horrible spot with top set.:

As yes, I've not taken your stack off the overshove properly, took £11 off instead of £9. In that case your right and its a marginal call, but as I said its so close thats there's no right/wrong decision.
Posted by NColley

Yeah. Unfortunately I couldn't do the maths in the 15 seconds I had. My gut told me I probably wasn't quite getting the odds, though i knew it was close. I guess I just didn't fancy a gamble. (As it happened, a profitable decision as the river was a brick.)

Thanks for the advice. Yes, I see that I should have shoved the flop. I think that when I was re-raised I was too wary of the flopped straight and wanted to try to control the pot until I hit my house.

rancid

In Response to Re: Horrible spot with top set.:

3bet flop and get it in
Posted by grantorino

Shove it in on flop, should never be seeing turn with options

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