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Putting your opponent on a hand
Here's a genuine situation I found myself in the second or third hand of a NLHE freezout in Vegas a few months back.
Starting chips = 7,500. Blinds = 25/50. As the tournament's just begun, I know nada about the other players at the table.
Action's folded to me on the button. I have 77. I 3x. SB folds; BB (non-descript bloke in his late 30s/early 40s) calls.
Flop = AQ7 (rainbow)
BB checks. I c-bet for 250. BB check-raises to 700.
Hmmm... This is where I start to assess the strength of his hand. Did he flat my pre-flop raise with a weak ace, or a hand like KQ or QJ? Is this a semi-bluff with JT? Is he raising with air, assuming that I'm c-betting light? I'm 100% sure I'm in front, so I call.
Turn = Q
BB checks again. Hmmm... Is he giving up, or is he "trapping" after hitting his third Q? I bet 1,025. BB moves all-in!
OK, I'm now ruling out weak aces and straight draws! I'm warming to QT, QJ or KQ. But I'm also now worried about AQ. So...
1) How do I assess if he's the kind of player who'd flat, rather than three-bet a button raise with AQ pre-flop?
2) Should I have shoved the flop?
3) Should I call the all-in on the turn?
I'm interested in reading your thoughts, before I tell you what happened next :-)
Starting chips = 7,500. Blinds = 25/50. As the tournament's just begun, I know nada about the other players at the table.
Action's folded to me on the button. I have 77. I 3x. SB folds; BB (non-descript bloke in his late 30s/early 40s) calls.
Flop = AQ7 (rainbow)
BB checks. I c-bet for 250. BB check-raises to 700.
Hmmm... This is where I start to assess the strength of his hand. Did he flat my pre-flop raise with a weak ace, or a hand like KQ or QJ? Is this a semi-bluff with JT? Is he raising with air, assuming that I'm c-betting light? I'm 100% sure I'm in front, so I call.
Turn = Q
BB checks again. Hmmm... Is he giving up, or is he "trapping" after hitting his third Q? I bet 1,025. BB moves all-in!
OK, I'm now ruling out weak aces and straight draws! I'm warming to QT, QJ or KQ. But I'm also now worried about AQ. So...
1) How do I assess if he's the kind of player who'd flat, rather than three-bet a button raise with AQ pre-flop?
2) Should I have shoved the flop?
3) Should I call the all-in on the turn?
I'm interested in reading your thoughts, before I tell you what happened next :-)
Comments
I like the flop cbet, and the flat call of his raise.
It is confusing that he checks the turn as after he has shown strength by the cr, then he is giving you the oppurtunity to check behind him and not getting any more in on that street.
If he had AQ is he going to shove your turn bet giving you an easy laydown if you dont have the goods, surely he would raise to 2.5-3kish so you become nearly committed by the river.
I`m assuming the buyin and skill level here is a lot more than I am used to but I`m not folding this.
At the levels I play, in the same scenario, I would play it exactly like you did and call his shove.
very tricky james 3rd hand in no reads on him got to give him the respect that his got the queen i would fold
Call with lowest full house and go join another tourney
Fold and show the 7s to get the image of a seriously decent player on ur table.
I personally would fold as I still have a very playable stack and show my 7s.
Simple answer is you cant. You have no information to work from. To be able to put any opponent on a hand you need information about their playing style, and as you said you have none.
His range of hands could be anything from slowplaying AA to playing absolute junk and trying to create an image on the table. Maybe he is a player who defends his blinds to the hilt.
The main thing is in poker is find the best situation to get your chips over the line. Second or third hand of a tourny like this is not the best of situations because you can only lose the tourny at this time, you can not win it on that hand.
If you fold you still have about 5000 back which is very playable in that tourny. For me this is a very reluctant fold and then bide my time looking for a better situation.
The way you bet the hand looked like you were representing the Q rather than playing it...obviously you could afford to do that because you wanted it to look like bluffing the Q.
Never fold here IMO. Doesn't even matter if he has the AQ to me because he has that so few times when he pushes.
1) The fact he's not a "young gun" implies he wouldn't automatically re-raise pre-flop with AQ. I ask the classic Daniel Negreanu test question: "Where are you from, sir?" His reply: "Portland, Oregon." So, he's American! I'm convinced that a recreational American player in his late 30s/early 40s would just call with AQ in the BB at this stage of the tournament. Yes, I'm a great believer in stereotypes :-)
2) Possibly, but my hand is so strong at this point, I can afford to call (in position) and try to extract more on the turn.
3) No! I'm convinced he has AQ. And I'm equally convinced he's not the kind of player who'd risk his tournament without a *massive* hand. This is not a crapshoot where you have to gamble early on. As Talon observes, I have more than enough to fold - and wait for a better opportunity.
So, I fold, telling Mr Portland Oregon, 'Rounders' stylee, "I'm folding a monster here, because I can't beat AQ." He smiles and shows ... AQ!
This leaves me feeling smug and confident. I go on to make the final table and cash in 6th place. Happy days!
Good play and congrats - way out of my league.
I check back flop at least some % of the time fwiw.
Also I fold to c/r.
If you're bettinmg the turn to induce a bluff c/r, then how can you ever fold.
-_-
I bet the turn, because I'd put him on QT, QJ or KQ and I thought I could get all his chips. You're right - I *wanted* to induce the shove.
But when he actually moved all-in, he did it so quickly and with such confidence that I paused and thought, "Hang on a minute - he might actually have AQ here." (Granted, that's a detail I should have included in my original post!)
And I agree - I would *sometimes* check the flop, rather than c-bet :-)
2. Get called by a worse hand (AQ)
3. Get sucked out on the turn
4. Cry a little inside and move on.
Sick laydown against unknowns though.
In his mind he must know that you would fold an ace or Q low kicker, and you would not call if you were on some kind of str8 draw.
Was he shocked when he saw what you folded?
I don't think I would be able to fold in that situation but that is why I only play the small sit 'n go games and you play in Vegas.
Well done on the fold and going on to cash.