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Could I have got away from this one? or do I just put it down to bad luck essentially?

edited March 2012 in The Poker Clinic
can't LittleAl making money long term. I think with 2 hearts on flop you bet should have been pot sized to slow the drawing hands down.

Comments

  • edited March 2012
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    panderys1 Small blind   £0.05 £0.05 £4.45
    JOLLYGIANT Big blind   £0.10 £0.15 £5.04
      Your hole cards
    • J
    • A
         
    LittleAl Call   £0.10 £0.25 £18.59
    ballboy Raise   £0.40 £0.65 £22.30
    panderys1 Fold        
    JOLLYGIANT Fold        
    LittleAl Call   £0.30 £0.95 £18.29
    Flop
       
    • 3
    • 7
    • A
         
    LittleAl Check        
    ballboy Bet   £0.50 £1.45 £21.80
    LittleAl Call   £0.50 £1.95 £17.79
    Turn
       
    • J
         
    LittleAl Bet   £1.95 £3.90 £15.84
    ballboy Raise   £6.34 £10.24 £15.46
    LittleAl Call   £4.39 £14.63 £11.45
    River
       
    • 6
         
    LittleAl All-in   £11.45 £26.08 £0.00
    ballboy Call   £11.45 £37.53 £4.01
    LittleAl Show
    • Q
    • 2
         
    ballboy Show
    • J
    • A
         
    LittleAl Win Flush to the Ace £36.13   £36.13
  • edited March 2012
    I raise on button with AJ after LittleAl limps in. Everyone folds and he calls.

    I bet little over half the pot on the flop with top pair and there being a flush draw out there. On reflection I probably should have pushed this up to about 2/3s pot and made it really poor odds rather than very marginal odds for the flush draw. He calls this 50p into 95p bet and its 1.95 going into the turn.

    I think at this point, he could be on a flush draw. Assuming he isn't a complete fish he shouldn't have any gutshots here put any card like a 4 or a 5 etc could make him a straight and I have to be mindful of that.

    the turn comes Jack of spades. This is a great card for me as if he is check calling something like A3 or A7 I am now beating him and the flush draws didn't come. I planned to bet about 2/3s pot, thinking if he has a flush draw its the end of the hand, he can't continue. Weird though he bets out full pot. I think what to do here. None of the straight draws are out there. I can't put him on AA JJ. I am only worried that he has flopped a set.

    I decide to raise big here hoping to get value from weaker two pairs, stop any draws he may have and make it 6.34 from his 1.95 bet. This gives him 4.39 to win 10.34. This is poor odds for a flush draw on the flop nevermind the turn. He calls anyway. The river brings the 6 of spades which doesn't look a danger card for me. The pots built up to 13 quid odd and he polarises right there on the river. I call and left reeling as he backdoors a flush.

    The question is- can I put the hand down when he raise merges this river?

    Can I put this to a missed flush draw or some weird attempt to take the hand down? If he has a set I am probably just paying the thing off as I have top 2 pair on a seemingly safe board. Perhaps if I had bet 70 into 95 on the flop he would have just folded, although perhaps this shows its can be profitable to chase your backdoor draws as they are incredibly hard to spot
  • edited March 2012
    I wouldn't personally pot the flop as suggested by gracie unless you have reads they will call such big bets.

    I'd bet the flop 3/4 pot. Turn is fine.

    It's hard to put them on a spade flush draw because of how poorly they have played it so i'd be putting them on a busted heart flush draw or maybe a set of 3's/7's.

    This is when notes are so important, have you seen that player make bluffs with busted flush draws ? Would they normally limp in with low pairs ?
     
  • edited March 2012
    i cant see nothing wrong with your play im glad u raised on the turn and a good size raise aswell made the villain pay alot to hit a draw just unlucky here pal 
  • edited March 2012
    If your gonna spew, spew into this................... lol Grim.

    Siggggghhhhh Station :p
  • edited March 2012
    On the turn I was 80% favorite. Perhaps I just have to think of it as I made him commit £4.39 which he is never going to see again 4 times in 5.

    So running it 5 times I will win £17.56 ( his £4.39 call x 4) as well as the money already in the pot PF, F + T, but I will lose my whole stack because my reraise rules out the flush completely on the one in 5 (assuming he has me covered). On the fifth run its tough to work out as it depends on my stack size which is going to be different every time, but if I had a tenner it probably would have played the same way. My overall loss for the hand was £18 odd (£16-£17 from the turn).

    To make it even more simple I win around 7 quid from him total here 4 times in 5 making about £35, but he wins £18 in that one in 5.

    It all points to the fact that long term if he chases his backdoor draws calling big bets he is going to lose a lot of money. The pot I lost here will be compensated by people in positions where they are stuck with jack high or something when they have called me down and missed their draw
  • edited March 2012
    Looks fine to me, trying to put people on BDFD's is pretty hard imo and here they can have tons of worse two pairs that play it the same. 
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