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Would the forum fold here or call?
level 2 of the SPT.
The blinds are 50/100 I have 4700 - in the small blind.
The action passes to the button who raises to 300.
I repot in the small blind to 900 with pocket queens.
BB folds and the button insta moves all in.
I folded here relatively quickly assuming I was racing v AK at best and partly because I don't want to bust out of my first live event in level 2...
but am undecided?
The blinds are 50/100 I have 4700 - in the small blind.
The action passes to the button who raises to 300.
I repot in the small blind to 900 with pocket queens.
BB folds and the button insta moves all in.
I folded here relatively quickly assuming I was racing v AK at best and partly because I don't want to bust out of my first live event in level 2...
but am undecided?
Comments
because its early, i would have called the raise to keep the pot small. if an ace or king hits on the flop then fold. if a queen hits its double up time .
It's a difficult decision, I'd probably expect the button to have at least pocket 10's, but most likely AA or KK, if hes doing this with AK, AQ this early I'd be suprised..
Maybe the guy didn't like the way you looked when you re raised?? (lol)
It's a difficult fold to make, and you can't really judje whether it was the correct fold unless you know the opponents hand.
Anyway I make a very reluctant fold, cursing under my breath for not getting any chips from QQ.
I think it was the right decision to re raise though, just unlucky that the button apparently had a strong hand.
Not worth risking your tourny life so early on. you made a good reraise and u got your answer. the range of hands your opponent must of had was AA's or KK's to make that play back at you unless they have no clue on what their doing.
good luck
In Response to Would the forum fold here or call?:
Where did u finish in the end out of interest?
Maybe with it only being 2nd level, there is very little further info that the OP can provide. How does the OP view his game, and more importantly how do the other players view them too. Whilst you wont have been in the blinds very much, have you come across as a player that likes to defend his blinds against a button or cut off raise. Have you appeared tight or loose when playing in other positions.
How about the guy on the button do you view him as a weak or strong player, has he made many moves at all in the limited hands that you have played so far.
So lets look at this in slightly more detail
What could he raise with on the button
Which hands are you afraid of
AA KK and AK
What hands may he raise with on the button that you arent afraid of
QQ, JJ TT, and maybe he's raised with pockets pairs down to 7's
Also he may have made the button raise with again say any ace rag, or maybe even KQ, KJ, KT, QJ
So after his raise you raise 900, meaning he has to call 600 into a 1350 pot (Ithink I got the maths right there), so he has pot odds of 2-1, altho he actually raises all in, leaving you to call 3800 into a pot of around 5700.
Now before we consider again what hands he may be holding with, what does he think you hold.
A pocket pair TT JJ and QQ would all suit a reraise from the SB, KK and AA may also raise or call as you may not mind playing these two hands out of position. You might also have reraised with pockets 9's 8's maybe 7's which would take down a button steal.
What about unpaired hands, then what range of hands would you raise with here. Again it depends on the images of the two players. Ace rag could seeit as a button steal and and thus may come back with a raise, does he view you as someone who would come back over the top with something like A 10 or even 2 paint cards.
At this stage of the tourny.with little information on the image of any player, then I think teh button could put you on a wide range of hands that would raise a potential button steal.
So what does he have that would then come back over the top.
AA - Would he go all in here at this stage, or would he just call and see what the flop brings, I'd favour that with postion he would call and look to make a c bet on the flop.
KK - Would he shove here, more possible than AA, as if he puts you on an ace, then the flop could hurt him. What does he want to achieve with a premium hand, just take the pot now, or try to get more of your chips, is an all in bet likely to achieve that when holding KK.
AK,Q's J's T's - These are the vunerable hands if he just calls pre flop and thus are more likley to make the all in raise, having seen some resitance to his initial button raise.
Other pockert pairs - Pairs of 9's or below unlikely to make a further move and at most would call and see what the flop brings, given they have position.
KJ QJ - Think they are similar to the lower valued pairs, at most they would call the SB raise and play position on the flop.
AQ AJ KQ - Have seen so many people push with this hand, despite resistance that they have to be considered a possibility.
So what hands are we left with that we consider our opponent may play in this situation.
AA to TT
AK
AQ
AJ
KQ
so there are 5 pairs that our oppenent may play in this situation, giving 25 variations, 12 of which you are behind, 12 ahead, and 1 splitting with the queens, altho this is more unlikely.
With the unpaired cards each has 16 possibilities of being dealt
AK you are racing with, AJ you are favourite, AQ and KQ are less likely given you hold 2 Q's but again you are favourite should he hold these hands.
So we have
12 variations of hands that are beating you
16 that you are racing with
1 hand that equals yours ( the other pocket queens)
40 that you dominate ( J's t's and AJ)
together with another 16 hands that you dominate but will consider less likely (AQ and KQ)
So how often would the opponent make his move with hands that are beating you, in this situation lets say 50% he will reraise and 50% he will call
with the AK which is racing then 75% of the time he will reraise and 25% he calls
With the q's for ease of calculation 100% he will reraise
Of the hands you dominate (j's t's and AJ) 60% of hands he moves all in to your raise, the other 40% he will call or fold.
With the less likely hands 33% of the time he goes all in, 66% he calls or folds.
so we now have the following to consider after the opponent goes all in
6 hands are beating you
12 hands you are racing with
29 that you are ahead preflop (of which 5 you hold outs for )
and 1 where you are equal
So there is a total of 18 variations of hands that you are wary of, and 29 that you are ahead of
Pot contains around 5.7k and you need to call 3.8 ( all of your stack) so you are getting about nearyl 2-1 on your money
We think there is a total of 47 variety of hands that our opponent may have, and of those hands you consider that 60% of them you are beating pre flop, making you about a 1.5 favourite, so you are more than getting the odds to make the call.
However this is for your tournament life, in addition the above calculations are unobserved estimates, so can't be too sure if our opponent would fit that profile. As a final thought consider your image after the hand. If you fold then others may consider you a player that they can come back over the top of you with a reasonable hand, ideal if you do hit a hand, but may make semi bluffs harder to push through uncontested. You call and your hand holds up, other players start to resepct your raises and thus you have more opportunity to steal uncontested pots.
All of the above is very open to interpretation, and everyone will have different thoughts on how to play the hand and the chances of your opponent holding a particular hand, but the above is what needs to be considered before you can make an instant call or an instant fold.
Gut instinct to me said call, on my very loose analysis, I'm getting the pot odds to call, so I'm calling here, however given that its the early stage of the tourny and you will be left with 38 BB if you fold, whilst if you call and are wrong you are out of the tourny, I think a fold is a valid play too.
BTW the post by Aski is great and def the longest post Ive ever seen on this forum
I could've posted and said that Id call, but felt in this situation what you needed to hear was not so much was you right or wrong to fold or call, but how would you assess that situation. Some players would say that I'm optimistic with what I consider the opponent may have, and thus for them it would be a definate fold, others may think teh guy is even looser than I say, hence it then becomes an easier call.
In this situation, there can be no right or wrong answer, even before you think about it, you wil have a preferred move. All you are trying to acheive by giving yourself a bit of time to think about the hand, is whether the analysis concurs with your initial thoughts or not .
Cheers Phil, in my post about my first MTT win, someone asked if I was related to Hale 72 given the length of my post, Ive only seen her blog, not read any of her posts yet, but felt that I had a standard to maintain at least
I call instantaenouesly.
If he can have 16 combo's of AK, 6 combo's of KK & AA, 1 combo of QQ, and 6 combo's of JJ some % of the time then i'm pretty happy to get it in.
Also if you're 3b folding QQ, and we assume you're 3b range is TT+, AJ+ (KQs?) (I advocate a wider 3b range than this fwiw) then you are v. exploitable. Idk how relevant that is in this tournament, just a side note really.
With the structure the way it was, I would call
Early in a tournament, I don't want to be possibly racing or dominated by another hand.
I'm folding = as posted here before, Q was asked wid the re-raise (Hindsight = wish u had just called the raise) I think your end result has nothing to do with this 1 hand (other than getting as far a 90th)