stealing blinds in cash games?

jugglegeek

Folded around to you on the button with junk is it worth raising to steal the 1.5BBs in the pot? My maths says that if both players fold 85% of the time from the blinds then you have a 70% of winning the pot. Assuming a 3x bet this is +ev 0.15BBs. If they fold 90% then it goes up to +0.6BBs but if they only fold 80% of the time then we lose 0.3BBs. Assuming of course that we always give up after a call.

I would have thought that if you have a couple of nits in the blinds, especially nits who fold to a lot of c-bets then raising ATC is going to show a profit.

It's something that I never really thought about in cash games until coming home from work today. I do it instinctivley when playing tournements and will often look at who is in the blinds when I'm in late possition before I even look at my cards. But since profit in cash games is usually around 5BBs/100 and we are talking about a situation that might make us 0.15BBs every orbit.

The other consideration is the metagame. If you are raising a lot from the button and the blinds adjust by 3-betting light out of possition then you will be able to get paid off more easily for the big hands. Suddenly 4-betting jacks against a super-nit might actually be +ev against a player whose blinds we have been stealing all night.

How much do you do this?

FlashFlush

I think its very unlikely both blinds fold 85% of the time. IMO on cash tables a 3x raise from the button will get through 60% of the time (a lot less at lower levels). 

Lambert180

Personally I don't think there's good enough reason to steal blinds with ATC as you would do in late stages of an MTT. I aint looked into your figures too much, but I think they're optimistic to say the least.

Obviously I widen my range alot from the button but not as far as ATC

jugglegeek

In Response to Re: stealing blinds in cash games?:

I think its very unlikely both blinds fold 85% of the time. IMO on cash tables a 3x raise from the button will get through 60% of the time (a lot less at lower levels). 
Posted by FlashFlush

My mistake. I didn't mean that button steal gets through 85% of the time. I meant that each blind folds 85% of the time each, meaning the move will work 70% of the time.

Think you are right though. I made the mistake of looking at my own VP$IP from BB possition (13%) when actually I should be looking at my fold to steal atempt (77%).

DOHHHHHHH

Try to think of it as opening the pot rather than stealing the blinds, although alot of the time that will be your ideal outcome.....

Button will be your most profitable position to play from so makes sense to try and use it as much as possible, obv without overdoing it.

Use reads on blinds/your image/history etc to decide how wide to open. 

rancid

you'll win more money playing position, no money in stealing blinds - more money when players call your opens than if they fold

grantorino

In Response to stealing blinds in cash games?:

Folded around to you on the button with junk is it worth raising to steal the 1.5BBs in the pot? My maths says that if both players fold 85% of the time from the blinds then you have a 70% of winning the pot. Assuming a 3x bet this is +ev 0.15BBs. If they fold 90% then it goes up to +0.6BBs but if they only fold 80% of the time then we lose 0.3BBs. Assuming of course that we always give up after a call. I would have thought that if you have a couple of nits in the blinds, especially nits who fold to a lot of c-bets then raising ATC is going to show a profit. It's something that I never really thought about in cash games until coming home from work today. I do it instinctivley when playing tournements and will often look at who is in the blinds when I'm in late possition before I even look at my cards. But since profit in cash games is usually around 5BBs/100 and we are talking about a situation that might make us 0.15BBs every orbit. The other consideration is the metagame. If you are raising a lot from the button and the blinds adjust by 3-betting light out of possition then you will be able to get paid off more easily for the big hands. Suddenly 4-betting jacks against a super-nit might actually be +ev against a player whose blinds we have been stealing all night. How much do you do this?
Posted by jugglegeek

First of all I think blind stealing should certainly be a consideration in cash games, if you steal the blinds twice more than usual in 100 hands that usually helps your win rate a lot (also when they call you should win lots postflop)

But, if you open every btn even nits adjust. Also Im not sure you want nits to start 3betting you light and giving you tricky decisions. While you may be able to get it in with some hands like JJ that you mighnt otherwise, if you open every button you are going to face their 3bet with 83 etc much more often than JJ

Basically you can do it till they adjust, if they adjust by calling lighter oop rather than 3betting light its prob better for us, as they usually wont adjust enough postflop. But people are stations, so be careful of any of this at lower levels. To make it profitable is about adjusting to the dynamic better thab them

bolly580

after the amount of time your cbets get through raising from an unopend button is always proffitable.

Unless your a nit playing 24 tables at once and dont have anything to your game apart from absolute ABC Poker