Should I value bet the river?

cenachav

1st hand of Thursdays Main event.  Should I value bet the river and if so how much and what should I do if oppo shoves?


PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancebudge125Small blind 10.0010.001990.00POLLANSKIBig blind 20.0030.001980.00 Your hole cards9A   yoyoRaise 60.0090.001940.007769Fold    trevor1948Fold    cenachavCall 60.00150.001940.00budge125Fold    POLLANSKIFold    Flop  J5A   yoyoBet 75.00225.001865.00cenachavCall 75.00300.001865.00Turn  A   yoyoCheck    cenachavBet 150.00450.001715.00yoyoCall 150.00600.001715.00River  3   yoyoCheck    cenachavCheck    yoyoShow1010   cenachavShow9A   cenachavWinThree Aces600.00 2315.00

Curt360x27

yeah certainly missed value here on the river. He never has a better A or a backdoor flush here. He most likely has a J or 88 through KK and you should really trying to be squeezing some extra value from this range maybe bet about 250-300 on the river.
Really you should be folding pre here though

DrRunGood

check on the turn and river puts him on the kinda hand he had you should have put in bout 3/4 pot raise on river

AMYBR

yes and 320 ish, myeh its yo yo, be prepared to snap it off

grantorino

fold pre

I prefer checking the turn and vbetting the river big

as played I think you can b/f around 320, although I think its a bit thinner than some others on here

GREGHOGG

I wouldn't be playing this pre-flop especially against such a good player as yoyo

I would b/f the river as played

Dudeskin8

Against UTG raise got to fold pre, it's not even sooted.

Half-pot river sounds good.

BorinLoner

If we're calling a raise with A9 on the button, pre-flop I think it has to be because we think we can outplay our opponent through the streets. We're not really looking to hit an Ace or a nine alone, since we're not going to know where we are with one-pair. Position is a great thing to have and that's our main weapon here, not our hand... So do you think you have an edge on this opponent? What information do we have on yoyo? Is he tight, passive, aggressive, experienced etc? In the absence of this information... lol

Seriously though, against a bad player I don't mind calling to play the button with A9 but it's probably best to throw this away against a good player. I'd prefer a 3-bet to a call since you'll be looking to bluff with A9 through the streets anyway. Might as well start your bluffing now.

Fast-forwarding to the river; I think you have to value bet it. Your opponent doesn't figure to have an Ace, considering his checks on th turn and river. If he has an Ace or better he'd continue betting for value on the turn. You called his bet on the flop so you'd figure to call his bet on the turn, after a second Ace comes. He'd expect you to think that an Ace on the turn makes it less likely that he had one, so you would presumably keep calling with a Jack. I think we can rule out him having a scared Ace. How many bad Aces do we think he opens with?

I'm actually surprised that yoyo called your bet on the turn. I expect that he'd say that was a mistake if you asked him. If we look at the hand from his point of view: You've called a raise in position pre-flop which usually means high cards or a low pocket-pair. The flop has come AJ5 and you've called his bet. That flop has smacked your range in the mouth and although the c-bet is fine he should really just give up after getting action on the flop. He could think you're floating with KQ or an underpair but it's probably more profitable in the long-term for him to give it up rather than get too creative. Check-calling the turn is never going to win him the hand and is just gifting value to better hands.

For those reasons I don't think he would call a bet on the river. The only purpose the call on the turn does serve is to prevent you from going mad with an underpair on the river and firing a big bluff that he'd find tough to call. I think this logic applies to any hand he could be holding on the river since we're removing trips or better from his range. The only alternative is that he's backed into a flush with perhaps KQs but that's highly unlikely and would be really unlucky for you.

So I think you should value bet although I don't think he would call with any hand in his range unless he makes a mistake. He could make that mistake, though, and put you on an elaborate bluff so it's worth a try. I pretty much rule out him having you beat here and I wouldn't expect that yoyo makes many check-raises on the river. Even if he does have a rush of blood and check-raises here I think you should call fairly confidently.