Fold River vs nit with 65bigs behind?

AMYBR

Been posting alot so figured only fair to put up a hand that had me stuck this week:

Live £50 FO 63 seats.  10k starting stack 24 min blinds, solid structure.

Not to far out of the gates, 2nd lvl, say all 8 seats @ table have full 10k stack:

Blinds 50/100.  I find JJ utg +1.  Make it 250.  CO, button and BB calls

CO readless,
Button super laggy
BB is a total nit through streets.  Has moves shallow, but would categorise him as being overly tight in general.

My image is pretty aggro as standard.  Small ball IP mostly, but anybody paying attention will know that even I have a hand playing from such EP

4 to flop 1050 in pot Js Qs 6c flop.  BB checks, I fire 650 expecting to get called pretty wide.  CO folds, Button calls, as does BB

3000 in pot, effective stacks have 9000 ish bhind.  Js Qs 6c 9h.

BB tank checks.  Half pot feels same as 3/4 here.  Could bet pot here but I rarely like to do this.  Make it 2300.

CO sigh folds, he was who worried me mostly tbf, feel nit folds out most draws.

7600 in pot Js Qs 6c 9c 7d.

BB ships pot sized bet of 6500 ish.  Kind of lvld self here as oppo knows I'm virtually always sat there with no hand (in LP), but very rarely sat there with a hand that will call a ship in general.  Kind of tight for Tlife overall (as said..... inner lvling war).

What can we do on river?

(I mucked, he showed:  will say after a few posts)

grantorino

do you know these players well or are reads just from tourney so far? Also I have no idea what you are trying to say in that paragraph about levelling yourself. If its that he thinks you shouldnt have much (and I see no reason why he would think that unless you are hyperaggro on boards that smash peoples calling ranges), surely you have to snap. Might be misinterpreting u as usual though.

I prefer opening bigger ~100BB deep, esp from early position. obv if thats your standard open thats what you make it here

bet flop bigger

turn fine, might go a little bigger to set up easier river shove

river I snapcall, yeah you are beat sometimes, but he can have 2p, worse set, weird bluffs

gracie24

you are only losing to q's or a weird str8 that shouldn't be in the hand. If it was pocket q's bravo - I woul d be dead.

AMYBR

In Response to Re: Fold River vs nit with 65bigs behind?:

do you know these players well or are reads just from tourney so far? Yes, played with the gentleman in question for myeh.. nearly 3 years.  Also I have no idea what you are trying to say in that paragraph about levelling yourself. If its that he thinks you shouldnt have much (and I see no reason why he would think that unless you are hyperaggro on boards that smash peoples calling ranges),  Mostly this, however he is good enough to recognise what you say..in that he is good enough to realise I'm pretty aggro through streets, but not the higher thinking of MW callers smashing flop..Add in a little of him knowing his own tight rep.   surely you have to snap. Might be misinterpreting u as usual though. I prefer opening bigger ~100BB deep, esp from early position. obv if thats your standard open thats what you make it here (I tend not to deviate ny opens unless in blinds or limpage has occurred)  bet flop bigger turn fine, might go a little bigger to set up easier river shove river I snapcall, yeah you are beat sometimes, but he can have 2p, worse set, weird bluffs
Posted by grantorino

AMYBR

In Response to Re: Fold River vs nit with 65bigs behind?:

you are only losing to q's or a weird str8 that shouldn't be in the hand. If it was pocket q's bravo - I woul d be dead.
Posted by gracie24

With solid read on opponent his range and line are as important as the perceived strength of our own hand.

Aslo, fwiw, both K10 and 86 should def be in the hand from action pre in BB (nrly 6/1 closing action), 86 obv less so - unless 86s

grantorino

In Response to Re: Fold River vs nit with 65bigs behind?:

In Response to Re: Fold River vs nit with 65bigs behind? : With solid read on opponent his range and line are as important as the perceived strength of our own hand. Aslo, fwiw, both K10 and 86 should def be in the hand from action pre in BB (nrly 6/1 closing action), 86 obv less so - unless 86s
Posted by AMYBR

you beat 86, and hes not nitty if he calls flop with 86, unless he has a flush draw. He prob can have KT, but shouldnt get past flop with any combo of T8 other than Ts8s if your reads are correct. I assume he wont play QQ this way

AMYBR

sry 58/810 obv

So K10 58 & 810 being the range we are fearful of vs overly tight plyr.

Dont want to get stuck on this one element, was simply saying that even a tight player will obv call last to act pre getting 6/1.  Those hands being within the range of our four handed flop.

Obv only the suited 58 810s should be really feared given reads, the K10 being most likely.

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: Fold River vs nit with 65bigs behind?:

In Response to Re: Fold River vs nit with 65bigs behind? : With solid read on opponent his range and line are as important as the perceived strength of our own hand. Aslo, fwiw, both K10 and 86 should def be in the hand from action pre in BB (nrly 6/1 closing action), 86 obv less so - unless 86s
Posted by AMYBR

I'm guessing you meant to say 8T or 85 here. I think either of these would have folded on the flop, though. You say he's a nit so surely he'd let go of a gut-shot; 8T.

Honestly, I think we can narrow down the range of hands that beat us here to one: KT. It's certainly conceivable that he could be playing that with a call in the blinds, with good pot-odds. The only other hand that could possibly beat us, given the post-flop action, is QQ. I don't know too many players that wouldn't 3-bet QQ pre-flop, though I'm sure there are some who wouldn't.

I honestly think that even if we include the unlikely QQ in his range it's far too small a portion of his range to fold to. AQ, KQ, QJ, lower sets, missed flush-draws and missed combo-draws are all in his range here. It's not inconceivable that he has 9sTs here or something like that. Even tight, nitty players can make moves and if the opponent has an understanding of table image, he's going to know that he can get you off alot of hands here.

If he put you on AQ, KQ or something like that, he'd expect to be able to get you off it with the shove. His image being so tight and knowing you to be a thinking player. If he's got the hand here I think you've been coolered and are making a mistake if you don't go broke.

BorinLoner

Fair point: 8sTs would probably call on the flop too. It's only one hand though and doesn't change the overall picture.

AMYBR

In Response to Re: Fold River vs nit with 65bigs behind?:

In Response to Re: Fold River vs nit with 65bigs behind? : I'm guessing you meant to say 8T or 85 here. I think either of these would have folded on the flop, though. You say he's a nit so surely he'd let go of a gut-shot; 8T. Honestly, I think we can narrow down the range of hands that beat us here to one: KT. It's certainly conceivable that he could be playing that with a call in the blinds, with good pot-odds. The only other hand that could possibly beat us, given the post-flop action, is QQ. I don't know too many players that wouldn't 3-bet QQ pre-flop, though I'm sure there are some who wouldn't. I honestly think that even if we include the unlikely QQ in his range it's far too small a portion of his range to fold to. AQ, KQ, QJ, lower sets, missed flush-draws and missed combo-draws are all in his range here. It's not inconceivable that he has 9sTs here or something like that. Even tight, nitty players can make moves and if the opponent has an understanding of table image, he's going to know that he can get you off alot of hands here. If he put you on AQ, KQ or something like that, he'd expect to be able to get you off it with the shove. His image being so tight and knowing you to be a thinking player. If he's got the hand here I think you've been coolered and are making a mistake if you don't go broke.
Posted by BorinLoner

Yeah this is true.

Guess he was a plain non believer on flop.  He'd turned a set of 9's

So glad mucked hand instead of hero folding face up

He shows his hand like its the obv nuts..... sigh

I exploded, out in 2 more lvls

Big believer in trusting reads/instinct.   Guess in this instance his own belief that his hand was so strong vs my range sent my radar askew.

Against most other players I sigh beat them into pot.  Think it is a horrible fold for most part in hinsight..hey-ho

scotty77

I would say that this is way way overthinking this level of tournie.

24 min blinds 50 quid standard tournie this is a very very bad fold.

Like a 1 hour 1k this may be a fold but I doubt it.

I know that the money/buy in shouldn't matter but it does, especially with the clock.

BorinLoner

You should have folded face up. It would have done wonders for your image: "I'm so tight that second set isn't good enough for me!"

EvilPingu

Fold Jacks pre, they're horrible, everyone hates Jacks :P

(Joking aside, I'm never folding 2nd set in a million years here)

AMYBR

In Response to Re: Fold River vs nit with 65bigs behind?:

I would say that this is way way overthinking this level of tournie. 24 min blinds 50 quid standard tournie this is a very very bad fold. Like a 1 hour 1k this may be a fold but I doubt it. I know that the money/buy in shouldn't matter but it does, especially with the clock.
Posted by scotty77

ty for feedback scotty.

As said, i beat unknowns/most knowns into the pot.

Mainly solid knowledge of player that made it tricky. 

But yes, still a bad fold I agree

AMYBR

Mainly picked this hand to show how it is easy to post approach/strategy in a forum.  When we have time and no pressure/human factor to complicate things.

Lots of us post alot and the debates kind of get involved @ times.  My brother was over yesterday and was looking through borinloser and my debate on pocket 55's in a spot and was abit huh?  Just wanted to demonstrate the diff between armchair analysis and being sat at a table.  Being it is easy to say what would be ideal

Am sure a few ppl expected me top say he showed 10K...whadda fold