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MTT - 12bbs, 72, SB, Shove or Fold?
This was a bounty hunter in the money last 26, I was about 22nd.
The 500/1000 level has also just started.
With the format is this an auto shove or too risky ?
| Dudeskin8 | Small blind | 500.00 | 500.00 | 11981.25 | |
| Doubleblow | Big blind | 1000.00 | 1500.00 | 27592.50 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| DnTryMe | Fold | ||||
| STANNYB | Fold | ||||
| madmax40 | Fold | ||||
| johnhammer | Fold | ||||
| Dudeskin8 |
Comments
Depends simply on what we think of BB
Most people here are saying fold, and yet I posted my exit hand in Thews @ Ten the other night and everyone said it was just standard. Both hands were SB v BB, both situations we had 12BB, both at similar stages of the tourney.
Obviously the main difference was I had KJoff and Dude has 72s but (the point I made in my thread), if I ever get my KJ shove called, I'm always gonna behind, and am likely to be dominated alot of the time. The only upside I see to my hand is that I have 2 overs to smaller pairs. But Dude is much more likely to be live (obviously in trouble against a PP over 7s).
So my question was, I'm not shoving for value as I never figure to be ahead and clearly Dude wouldn't be shoving for value, so why is mine standard and his a fold?
Why wouldnt we want to get through one opponent to pick up the 1500 in there when we only have 11bbs to begin with (11400).
We are making a calculated risk. Sigh... Beaheh sets out the technical terminology so I wont. We considor the range of hands that call us & what we perceive BB thinks of our shove in relation to those hands. But he has to have a hand to begin with.
Need to get used to being aggro in these spots ATC outcome regardless. We can factor in a lot of issues,
Am not saying auto ship ATC (although personally my range is going to be super wide, unless bb is mahoosive station.), - as said initially - depends on what we think of BB. But ultimately we are going to be needing to get it in real soon, plenty of arguments to say here is plenty fine
72 is in trouble against most pairs, especially those bigger than 7s, but is 40/60 against the rest of his range (short of possibly A7 and A2).
Really my only point is that when I get called with KJ, I'm virtually always in trouble, but it's still +EV because of all the folds I'll get, so surely 72s is also +EV for this reason, so I'm questioning the differing responses.
(I wasn't shoving KJ for value)
I think you can make a decent argument for either a shove or a fold to be honest. You can wait a few hands if you like but in my opinion we have an opportunity here. I wouldn't want to miss it.
EDIT: Read dependent, of course. Too often I've done this into a station who snap calls me with J4. lol
So we assume oppo fold 40% of the time (28.8% fold equity) ?
if so then we have 56.8% total equity, so the shove is fine I think
agree/disagree - discuss
My figures may be off, not done it for a while
disclaimer: I may be totally off the mark here )
dis TT+,AQs+,AQo+
whats our equity versus this range
and surely this decreases the percentage we are called, so we get folds 80% of the time ?
We only want folds more often
I'd be folding usually from my experience in a BH, it doesn't matter if you have 11bbs and open shove into a guy with 28bb, I've been snap called by everything from A6o to 43s, 910s is the nuts to some of these people.
For that reason I'd rather be shoving Ax Kx Qx, any 2 broadways because you have better equity when called.
@ lambert you talk about how your KJ is not significantly better? have a think about it lad.
You shove on BB, when you are called you can dominate some of his range, and are 50/50 against 22-1010, and have 3 outs vs JJ and QQ.
Now apply the same logic to 72, yes the chances of you being dominated by hands are probably limited to A7/A2, but in most cases you are a 35% dog to 2 overcards anyway and are crushed by 77+ and have 3 outs against 22-66.
---
7,232,772,096 games 0.001 secs 7,232,772,096,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.656% 44.22% 02.44% 3198399696 176132120.00 { KJs, KJo }
Hand 1: 53.344% 50.91% 02.44% 3682108160 176132120.00 { 22+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
---
---
506,841,984 games 0.050 secs 10,136,839,680 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.592% 31.12% 00.47% 157732671 2388670.00 { 7c2c }
Hand 1: 68.408% 67.94% 00.47% 344331973 2388670.00 { 22+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
---
Same calling ranges in both, results would be affected by the standard of the player in the BB though, but as you can see, 72 is significantly worse off when called.
This is a BH, probably a £2.30 one, the standard of play is usually poor, these players are not going to playing to the standard of the top MTT players of the site.
nah got another 4 hands now until you hit the blinds again, just fold.
If this ws HEads-up, it's different, but this is an MTT. I can fold these low pairs and weak Aces or Kings (I'd probably call with KQ) because I know that I can put the pressure on later by making the move myself. I don't want to be calling off what is a pretty deep stack late on in an MTT unless I have a big hand.
But yeah shoving Dohhh range is nice!
I don't know maybe you do, but as I said there are some very loose calls in these types of tournaments.
I'd decline +ev spots just because I think I can build my stack without taking the chance of calling it off. If I'm reasonably comfortable (28BB here) I can pick my spots a little more but I'm always trying to get my chips in first. I'd rather shove a 93o in the SB or button than call with a KJs in the BB against a SB shove. With 28BB I've also got a lovely 3-bet shoving stack against other relatively deep stacks.
If I was in this BB with A3 and you showed me that you'd shoved with 72, I think I'd still fold. I'd think my chances of winning the tournament would be better if I could get my chips in first in later hands, rather than call now as a marginal favourite.
(This is all assuming that the tournament isn't populated by sharks. Otherwise my edge isn't going to be big enough to justify my faith in being able to outplay the field. We are talking about "average" players after all.)
Comes down to a purely personal thing that is best kept to self for most part.
Have scanned through these posts. Dont think we can polarise calling ranges this tightly. in blind on blind scenario dynamic/image is going to be a significant factor vs perceived range.