NL50 - Value bet river?

EvilPingu

Should I be value betting this river or just checking behind?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
rolfus	Small blind		£0.25	£0.25	£50.00
EvilPingu	Big blind		£0.50	£0.75	£80.52
	Your hole cards	10 10
stien	Fold
AA249	Fold
sneji	Fold
rolfus	Raise		£1.25	£2.00	£48.75
EvilPingu	Call		£1.00	£3.00	£79.52
Flop
		6 4 3
rolfus	Check
EvilPingu	Bet		£2.00	£5.00	£77.52
rolfus	Call		£2.00	£7.00	£46.75
Turn
		J
rolfus	Check
EvilPingu	Bet		£4.50	£11.50	£73.02
rolfus	Call		£4.50	£16.00	£42.25
River
		2
rolfus	Check
EvilPingu	????

grantorino

prob 3bet pre

check back river

Batkin88

as grantorino says 3 bet pre and check the river as he is def calling here but could be check raising leaving you in a world of pain

rancid

value bet

beaneh

In Response to Re: NL50 - Value bet river?:

as grantorino says 3 bet pre and check the river as he is def calling here but could be check raising leaving you in a world of pain
Posted by Batkin88

3bet pre, as played bet river if he raises call lol.

Spad3s

I prob just check when 2 hits river.

But will value bet other rivers.

Batkin88

In Response to Re: NL50 - Value bet river?:

In Response to Re: NL50 - Value bet river? : 3bet pre, as played bet river if he raises call lol.
Posted by beaneh

And then lose more than you should

rancid

What are you guys worried about if you think oppo will c/r river - what's oppo got :S

beaneh

In Response to Re: NL50 - Value bet river?:

In Response to Re: NL50 - Value bet river? : And then lose more than you should
Posted by Batkin88

y u so scared?

EvilPingu

Thanks for the replies

FWIW, I checked it back, villain turned over A2

DrRunGood

value it

grantorino

wouldnt be that worried about a c/r (and if I did bet I might call a c/r), but its still a pretty thin vbet

Batkin88

In Response to Re: NL50 - Value bet river?:

In Response to Re: NL50 - Value bet river? : y u so scared?
Posted by beaneh

I'm always scared

rancid

In Response to Re: NL50 - Value bet river?:

wouldnt be that worried about a c/r (and if I did bet I might call a c/r), but its still a pretty thin vbet
Posted by grantorino

Yeah it may be thin, but do we not bet because we presume oppo may not be able to call, or do we v/b because we should

Don't think the board has changed apart from the obvious straight, so we can easily get value from worse pairs here, to check behind is loosing value - depends how capable oppo is to c/r hands that beat us & bluffs on the river doesn't it -
The only question is could oppo check value hands on the river in these spots , ?

b/f or b/c

grantorino

In Response to Re: NL50 - Value bet river?:

In Response to Re: NL50 - Value bet river? : Yeah it may be thin, but do we not bet because we presume oppo may not be able to call, or do we v/b because we should Don't think the board has changed apart from the obvious straight, so we can easily get value from worse pairs here, to check behind is loosing value - depends how capable oppo is to c/r hands that beat us & bluffs on the river doesn't it - The only question is could oppo check value hands on the river in these spots , ? b/f or b/c
Posted by rancid

if we are b/f (assuming he wont fold better) it should be because:
 no of times we are called and win /> (no of times we are called and lose+number of times we are raised)

b/c makes the math more complex obv and depends on his sizing

We are usually ahead on river imo, doesnt mean we can always vbet 

villain has played his hand really weird, im not sure that many hands c/c 3streets as pfr that we beat, we can also easily have very strong hand with our line when we fire river. Its an unusual spot though and I'm not too sure, would depend on dynamic between them

gracie24

Check for me. He played it like a pair of 6's and you either win a little or lose a lot.