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Surely this isn't a bluff....

edited April 2012 in The Poker Clinic
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
SWANK Small blind  £0.50 £0.50 £93.87
ajs4385 Big blind  £1.00 £1.50 £99.00
  Your hole cards
  • 10
  • 10
     
lobsterman Fold     
FlashFlush Raise  £3.00 £4.50 £118.20
jakally Raise  £8.50 £13.00 £113.57
SWANK Fold     
ajs4385 Fold     
FlashFlush Call  £5.50 £18.50 £112.70
Flop
   
  • 2
  • 10
  • 8
     
FlashFlush Check     
jakally Bet  £10.00 £28.50 £103.57
FlashFlush Call  £10.00 £38.50 £102.70
Turn
   
  • 6
     
FlashFlush Check     
jakally Check     
River
   
  • K
     
FlashFlush Bet  £18.00 £56.50 £84.70
jakally All-in  £103.57 £160.07 £0.00
FlashFlush

Comments

  • edited April 2012
    Tricky, how has he been playing?

    Ur losing to a flush or KK, feel like the flush is unlikely, nd how can it be KK because he checked back the turn.

    Do u not think oppo woould bet a flush draw on the turn, now that iv thought about it, i think its a call, he can have under sets, two pair nd random bluffs
  • edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Surely this isn't a bluff....:
    Tricky, how has he been playing? Ur losing to a flush or KK, feel like the flush is unlikely, nd how can it be KK because he checked back the turn. Do u not think oppo woould bet a flush draw on the turn, now that iv thought about it, i think its a call, he can have under sets, two pair nd random bluffs
    Posted by KKrippler
    I disagree. I think the FD is MORE likely than KK.  And you let him get the river for FREE!!! Oh and its a fold!

  • edited April 2012
    IMO FD is more possible than KK...Also if he has KK fair play to him and I am ready to lose my whole stack in a set over set situation...

    Bad Check at the turn because you give him a free card...Make a donk bet cause you have probably the nuts at turn...

    I don't know how Jakally plays, but I think I would probably call in this spot...
  • edited April 2012
    i'm sure most of time he's barrelling a fd on the turn and he's obv betting KK unless he has some sikkkk reads

    he might check the turn with a fd thinking if he barrels again you're at least gonna call and might shove with set/overpair/pair+straight draw and obv he wouldnt want that - I'd expect to be up against a flush but I'd call because there's no way i could fold that in the 10 seconds sky gives you lol JQhh
  • edited April 2012
     there are a few possibilities here imo he's either holding AA QQ KK or lower set he's continued to bet the flop which can rule out the flush draw as only one heart on flop. very rarely going to be a st8 draw here no way he reraising a raiser with jq suited preflop. i aint folding here tbh i think your hand was the best hand and he got you to lay it down.
  • edited April 2012
    turn comes another heart and he checks then river another hearts you bet £18 and he shoves no way i'm laying it down because if he got flush any decent player would value bet here
  • edited April 2012
    imo I think he has the flush maybe ace x hearts or total bluff but more likely he has it and prob knows you are value betting with a hand and wants max value from making this bet on river.
  • edited April 2012
    I had no reads on him as I've only just moved up to this level. IMO the games were harder on 50nl than on 100nl tonight....

    I don't think we can read anything into the bet on the flop, thats as standard as folding 7,2o/s UTG IMO, he has 3bet me on the button and I have checked the flop to him, its bad play to not bet the flop here.

    IMO I had him a bit worried the fact I check called his flop bet, where normally I fold, it looked like he was giving up, but in heinsight he probably picked up a load of outs. Maybe I should of bet the turn but apart from the FD there was no danger, the plan was to check/raise. I put him on AK so I bet out to try get some value. Jakally is a decent player and I can't see him shoving here with less than a flush.
  • edited April 2012

    i dont know how much history you have with jakally but i think he has the flush here a huge % of the time.  the only thing that makes this so sick is if he knows you and perceives you as tight he may shove this river knowing you fold everything other than a flush


  • edited April 2012
    could equally be a bluff or got you beat

    so balanced there isn't he :S

    The amount you bet on river I think you have to call
  • edited April 2012
    this is a sigh fold I think

    jakally is possible of getting out of line but not in a spot like this
  • edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Surely this isn't a bluff....:
    this is a sigh fold I think jakally is possible of getting out of line but not in a spot like this
    Posted by scotty77
    Doesn't it depend on how jakally views the small lead on river

    Does it look weak :s
  • edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Surely this isn't a bluff....:
    In Response to Re: Surely this isn't a bluff.... : Doesn't it depend on how jakally views the small lead on river Does it look weak :s
    Posted by rancid
    As Flash says they aint played a lot together which prob makes it very unlikey that Jakally is bluffing
  • ybyb
    edited April 2012
    yeah like scotty says he has a flush loads here, especially if he's readless. i don't think i could fold in game though. are you sure he is readless on you? i seem to remember you playing 100nl quite a bit a while ago.

    i think c/ring the turn would be pretty bad btw, you allow him to not stack off with an overpair.
  • edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Surely this isn't a bluff....:
    yeah like scotty says he has a flush loads here, especially if he's readless. i don't think i could fold in game though. are you sure he is readless on you? i seem to remember you playing 100nl quite a bit a while ago. i think c/ring the turn would be pretty bad btw, you allow him to not stack off with an overpair.
    Posted by yb
    Looking back on the hand, if I did bet the turn, I would have to make it about £25... The chances are if he has picked up a FD he still calls, making the pot over £80 with a £60 stack behind, can't see me getting off it in that situation, so maybe the turn check was a good move!

    He might still have notes on me from then, but that was about 18 months ago not sure how much notice he would take of them.
  • ybyb
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Surely this isn't a bluff....:
    In Response to Re: Surely this isn't a bluff.... : Looking back on the hand, if I did bet the turn, I would have to make it about £25... The chances are if he has picked up a FD he still calls, making the pot over £80 with a £60 stack behind, can't see me getting off it in that situation, so maybe the turn check was a good move! He might still have notes on me from then, but that was about 18 months ago not sure how much notice he would take of them.
    Posted by FlashFlush
    as it's such a dry flop i'd just c/c down rather than leading or c/ring the turn, that way you rep a lot wider than just sets
  • edited April 2012

    depending on your history I dont mind c/r flop

    I would prob call now, think we are good often enough

  • edited April 2012

    AQhh for a shout?

    i agree with YB on this board im probably C/c 2 streets then trying to exrtract value.

    also as someone above says, "a good players surley goes for value with a flush here" thats exactly why i think an overbet by oppo is good, expessially if we know our opponent is strong.

  • edited April 2012
    know before you bet if you are bet calling or bet folding, as played B/F imo, c/c river instead if you're not confident with B/F.
  • edited April 2012
    this looks like a set of kings written all over it :)
  • edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Surely this isn't a bluff....:
    this looks like a set of kings written all over it :)
    Posted by IDONKCALLU
    What? That's one of the very few hands he hasnt got. 
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