shove or fold?

Mohican

Bubble of sat for £33 bh tonight(although 4th pays £19.80) and I've got an idea he's not folding so there's a good
chance that it's going to be a flip (At best). Player to my left has 8k,other one 14ish i think. Can I wait for a better spot or go all-in as I did? A normal tourney I wouldn't bat eyelid about jammimg it in his eye but sat dynamics makes me wonder if a fold would be better in this format.

visgrand28	Small blind		300.00	300.00	17020.00
Mohican	Big blind		600.00	900.00	6595.00
	Your hole cards	4 4
goodgirluk	Fold
mattuis12	Fold
visgrand28	Raise		1200.00	2100.00	15820.00
Mohican	All-in		6595.00	8695.00	0.00

3barrels

i think its a good shove cos he has too think if i call and wrong its almost half his stack but i like the shove plus min raise 80% of the time is never strong here

Mohican

Not a min raise, it's a raise to 1500.

3barrels

ohh im proberly looking wrong 300/600 blinds 1200 raise

Batkin88

It's one of them hands when you know the correct play is to shove but because of his chipstack he is always calling with two overs here so your prob slightly ahead but flipping.

beaneh

I would fold.

rancid

fold

Mohican

In Response to Re: shove or fold?:

It's one of them hands when you know the correct play is to shove but because of his chipstack he is always calling with two overs here so your prob slightly ahead but flipping.
Posted by Batkin88

It is in a normal tournament scenario but do I want to be doing this in a Sat?

Dudeskin8

11bbs if you fold, not in panic territory yet. 

BorinLoner

This is on the bubble of a satellite? If so, this is a spot you should always fold. You should fold here with AA.

The logic is simple: Let's say we have 20BB and our opponent shoves 7BB into us. We have AA and we snap fold. Why?

Because if we call, we'll win our seat right now between 80% and 94% of the time. If we fold, we'll win our seat in the next ten minutes 100% of the time. So the correct play is to fold.

With 11BB on the bubble, we can be fairly patient and wait for someone else to bust. Usually at this stage there is someone hanging on with just a few blinds and they will bust soon enough. We can pretty much let ourselves get as low as 5BB or 6BB before we have to shove, and for you that means as many as 6 more orbits. The chances of someone busting in those 6 orbits are vitually 100%, so the fold is definitely the way to go.

Mohican

In Response to Re: shove or fold?:

This is on the bubble of a satellite? If so, this is a spot you should always fold. You should fold here with AA. The logic is simple: Let's say we have 20BB and our opponent shoves 7BB into us. We have AA and we snap fold. Why? Because if we call, we'll win our seat right now between 80% and 94% of the time. If we fold, we'll win our seat in the next ten minutes 100% of the time. So the correct play is to fold. With 11BB on the bubble, we can be fairly patient and wait for someone else to bust. Usually at this stage there is someone hanging on with just a few blinds and they will bust soon enough. We can pretty much let ourselves get as low as 5BB or 6BB before we have to shove, and for you that means as many as 6 more orbits. The chances of someone busting in those 6 orbits are vitually 100%, so the fold is definitely the way to go.
Posted by BorinLoner

Only us 4 left in this and 4th paid 19squids so wasn't the true bubble and I had the least amount of chips but others are confirming what I thought that a fold is good here as I'm only ever at best in a flip.

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: shove or fold?:

In Response to Re: shove or fold? : Only us 4 left in this and 4th paid 19squids so wasn't the true bubble and I had the least amount of chips but others are confirming what I thought that a fold is good here as I'm only ever at best in a flip.
Posted by Mohican

I do apologise. I'd assumed there were other tables running. Must have missed you saying that 4th gets paid.

Well, I'd still fold here. You really want to get your chips in first and you can be fairly sure that's he's going to call a shove. He knows that you're going to be shoving alot before he makes his initial raise, so ought to have at least half a hand. You don't have much fold equity here. It is a bit trickier than I'd thought but I still think it's a fold.

AMYBR

Read dependant, think both fold & shove are fine.

EDIT: Bubble of Sat?  Always a fold.