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edited April 2012 in Betting Chat
ust a quick note to say that I haven't done the preview this year, my form man has, and I have to say what a tremendous read it is. Personally I'm on Chicago Grey, Shakalakaboomboom and Killyglen antepost, but I will support the rest to small stakes also. Cappa Bleu looks a big player.

Good luck all.

The Grand National is a minefield at first glance and with fences being altered and it becoming attractive to a larger number of classier horses the stats continue to evolve, with some becoming unreliable. There are still plenty that are useful and hopefully they will enable us to produce a shortlist and, ultimately, the winner.

Age: 

Ten year trends:

6 six year olds have taken their chance and none were placed
22 seven year olds have taken their chance, none were placed
There has been one eight year old winner and 7 placed from 66 entries.
There has been 3 winners and eight placed nine year olds from 111 entries.
5 winners were ten years old and six of that age group placed from 92 entries.
Only 9 eleven year olds were placed and none won from 69 entries.
There has been a twelve year old winner but none of the other 25 entries placed.
Horses thirteen years and over have been responsible for seven entries and none placed
No horse has made the frame who was less than 8 or older than 12 from 39 entries.

The last seven winners have been aged nine or ten and that age group placed 14 times from 198 entries.
Every winner since the last war has been aged between 8 and 12.
In the past seven years all 28 places have been taken by horses aged 8 to 11
Horses that fail the age stat are: Organised Confusion (7), Viking Blond (7), Our Island (7), Black Apalachi (13) and Hello Bud (14). On His Own, Quiscover Fontaine, Alfa Beat, Tatenen and Shakalakboomboom are all listed as eight years old but have not yet reached their birthdays so they are borderline.
Weight:
In recent years the weights have become more contracted as the number of better horses has increased with the result being that the higher weighted horses have done better. 14 of the 16 placed horses in the past 4 years have been filled by horses carrying more than 10-11
All winners in the past ten years have carried less than a stone more than the bottom weight and eight of those winners were allocated between 10-5 and 11-0 on publication of the National weights in February.
Top weights have not won in the past ten seasons and only two of them placed.
Horses carrying more than 11 stone (i.e more than a stone above bottom weights) are: Sychronised (11-10), Ballabrigs (11-9), Weird Al (11-8), Neptune Collognes (11-6), Calgary Bay (11-6), Alfa Beat (11-5), Planet Of Sound (11-5), Black Apalachi (11-3), Deep Purple (11-3) and Junior (11-2)

Class:

In recent seasons higher rated runners have began to fare much better. The winners of the last three renewals have all been rated above 144 and horses in that band were responsible for eight of the places (from 74 entries. Horses rated below 144 found just one placing from 46 entries. 

Horses rated below 144 are Sunnyhillboy (142), Killyglen (141), Quiscover Fontaine (141), Tharawat (141), Becauseicouldntsee (140), State Of Play (140), Swing Bill (140), Postmaster (139), Giles Cross (138), Midnight Haze (137), Vic Venturi (137), In Compliance (137), Viking Blond (137), Hello Bud (137) and Neptune Equestor (132) 

Breeding:

Mon Mome became the first French bred horse in a century to win this race when he triumphed in 2009. Of the other 99 French breds that took part in the past ten years, only five were placed. Irish bred horses were responsible for all of the other nine winners and 19 were placed from 227 entries. British Bred runners have had 64 entries in the past ten years and six placed. Our Vic has been responsible for two winners and three placings from 16 entries over that period of time. 

Form:

Ten year trends:

All ten winners had won no more than one Chase season.
All ten winners had between 3 and six outings after September
All ten winners had won a Chase over three miles plus. 
All ten had more than ten career starts over fences.
All ten had run within 50 days of the National
All ten had achieved an RPR rating of 141 at least once in their last three starts
Nine of the ten had won a Chase worth at least £29K
Nine of the ten had won three to five Chases. 
Nine of the ten posted their highest RPR figure on a left handed track. 
Eight of the ten finished in the first five on their last completed start
Eight of the ten had won a Listed or Graded Chase
Eight of the ten had won one to three handicap Chases.
Eight of the ten had run over hurdles since the turn of the year leading up to the National.
Seven of the ten were third or fourth season Chasers
Seven of the ten had run in five to twelve Handicap Chases in their career to date. 

Course Form:

Seven of the last ten winners ran at the previous years National meeting (four of those in the National itself, Two in the Topham and one in the John Smith's handicap)
Six of the last ten winners had previous experience of the National Fences

Racing style:

It seems that it is best to be prominent runner (6 of the last ten winners). Three of the winners in the past ten years were held up and one raced in midfield.

Market Position:

Eight of the last ten winners were priced 20/1 or less. 
Favourites have won three of the last ten renewals.

Looking at the trends over the past ten years the strongest stats seem to be: 

Aged 8 to 11, preferably nine or ten.
Carrying no more than a stone above the bottom weight.
OR of 144 or above.
Irish Bred
Won a good quality Chase (Listed or graded worth at least £29K)
Finished in the first five of last completed start
Won no more than one Chase in the current campaign
Had at least ten career starts over fences, winning between 3 and 5 of them.
Won over three miles plus
Run between three and six times after September and at least within the last 50 days.
Posted an RPR of 140 or above within their last three starts
Posted their best RPR on a left handed track
Had a run over hurdles in the current calendar year
Priced 20/1 or below. 
Recent renewals have seen the winners and the vast majority of the places going to horses carrying 10-11 or more. However none of the winners carried more than 14 pounds above the bottom weight. 

Of course stats don't run the race and Lady Luck, Jockeyship and inclement weather can all play their part. It's normally unusual to find a statistically perfect horse so it's worth making a brief synopsis on each of the runners:

1. Synchronised (9-11-10)

This year's Gold Cup winner and a previous winner of both the Midlands and Welsh Nationals. Hard to pick holes in those credentials and now officially weighted higher than the mark he has been allocated. His last two efforts have dispelled the theory that he needs testing conditions and there aren't many more game than him. However his tendency to make mistakes and not travel well through his races could soon find him in trouble and it's not difficult to imagine him leaving himself a mountain to climb going into the latter stages. Top weights have found life tough in this race in recent years and he had a hard race at Cheltenham. You have to go back to the 1930's to find a horse who completed the Gold Cup/National double in the same season. Given those concerns it's not surprising to see his price now drifting, although with Tony Mccoy on board it wouldn't be surprising to see his price contract again in the hours leading up to the start.

2. Ballabriggs (11-11-9)

Last year's winner but he is ten pounds higher in the handicap and has to shoulder 11-9. No horse has managed to repeat a win in consecutive years since Red Rum back in the 70's so his task is much harder this time round. It's not helped by a less than ideal preparation which has seen him run just once this season. A good run cannot be ruled out but there are others better priced and probably better handicapped than him.

3. Weird Al (9-11-8) 

A winner of 5 of his 9 starts over fences and has a touch of class but he has also had his problems. He broke a blood vessel for the second season in a row in the Gold Cup and that has to be a massive worry now he tackles this test with 11-8 on his back. He didn't seem to get home in the 2010 Hennessy the only time he has completed beyond 25 furlongs and, although he may have the inherent ability to run well, it's doubtful if he has either the resolution or the stamina to be involved at the finish. 

4. Neptune Collonges (11-11-6)

Not the force of old and being a French bred is statistically against him. However he is a good weight carrier and his second in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last time out was a very good effort considering he was giving the winner, Giles Cross, 14 pounds (21 if you don't include his rider's claim). Back in professional hands but that means he now has to give his conqueror 19 pounds, although the ground will suit him better than his rival if it's rides no worse than G/S. Absent for 56 days going into this race but that shouldn't be a problem. There are worse horses at shorter prices than him but, although a place is far from out of the question, the percentage call is to oppose for win purposes. 

5. Calgary Bay (9-11-6)

Won his last two starts and fair to say he hasn't been better but he now sits on a career high handicap mark and this venue hasn't been a happy hunting ground for him in the past. He took a soft fall in this race last year but it's not unusual for him to make the odd mistake although he rarely loses his jockey and, given his style of running, he may find himself with plenty to do going out onto the second circuit.. Both three mile victories have come at Doncaster and yet to prove he stays much beyond that. Comes here after an absence of 77 days and that's not ideal either. Given the weight he is carrying, his position in the handicap, his absence and stamina doubts there are enough concerns to oppose. 

6. Alfa Beat (8-11-5)

Winner of five of his fifteen Chases and recorded a victory in the Kerry National for the second season in succession at Listowel in September. Hasn't completed in both starts since and was very disappointing when pulling up at Fairyhouse last time out. Fell in the Topham Chase here last season so he doesn't have the most attractive of profiles. Has run well after a poor performance in the past but to do it in a race of this nature from a stiff looking handicap mark is a big ask. The presence of blinkers is also off-putting. Only Comply and Die has worn then to victory in the past ten renewals.

7. Planet Of Sound (10-11-5)

Wouldn't want any appreciable rain and the description of the ground by a few of the jockey's as dead would be a worry. Won a Grade One at Punchestown in April 2010 and has only been seen four times since. Two of those starts came this season. He ran a blinder on his return in the Hennessy at Newbury but he was slightly disappointing at Kempton last time out despite making the frame. Coming here on the back of such a light campaign is a negative statistically and there are stamina doubts. However a recent breathing operation and his class could take him a long way and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him run well.

8. Black Apalachi (13 -11-3)

Now a thirteen year old but he has only been seen once in the past two years. That came when finishing second in a Grade two at Fairyhouse in February. It showed there was still life and ability in him and he runs from the same mark as when finishing runner up here in 2010. He will give it his best shot but it's likely his age and a light campaign coming into the race will count against him. 

9. Deep Purple (11-11-3)

Comes here after just two runs this season but his reappearance at Sandown in December saw him win over 30 furlongs. Broke a blood vessel and eventually fell when last seen at Kempton in February and that's not an ideal preparation for this. Wouldn't want too much rain and, despite that Sandown victory, most of his running has been over shorter. Paul Moloney deserts this doubtful stayer and the market suggests he won't have much support elsewhere.

10. Junior (9-11-2) 

Another who has the disadvantage of coming here on the back of just two runs this season and, having had just eight starts over fences in all, his inexperience could count against him. Seems to have plenty of stamina but tends to jump low at his fences which would be a worry round here. The presence of blinkers is off-putting as are the most recent market vibes which have seen him drift quite alarmingly. Sometimes needs plenty of urging to keep him interested and that wouldn't be ideal in a race where it's important to travel well and get into a rhythm. Well handicapped and trained for the race by a yard who know what it takes to win it but too many doubts concerning his inexperience, his jumping and his ability to travel kindly through the race to back him.

11. Chicago Grey (9-10-13) 

Winner of the four mile National hunt Chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival and has plenty of positives to recommend him but there are some areas of concern. He is relatively inexperienced in handicap company (just three races) and his racing style means he can ill afford any mistakes, which can be his want. He has the right partner to give him the confident quiet ride he needs to be seen at his best and he could go well if he is on a going day but he is just as capable of running no sort of race. Likely to need luck in running if there are many casualties but laid out for the race by a Grand National winning Trainer. Has won in testing conditions but better on faster ground so he wouldn't want much rain. 

12. Tatenen (8-10-13)

Never won beyond 22 furlongs and has failed to get competitive in six attempts beyond three miles. Prone to jumping mistakes and it would be an achievement for him to complete yet alone be involved at the finish. 

13. Seabass (9-10-12)

Made relentless progress over the past two years which has seen his mark rise 54 pounds. Still two pound wells in according to the handicapper but the question he has to ask concerns his stamina and the suitability of the ground if the rain doesn't materialise. He has yet to win beyond 22 furlongs under rules, both three mile victories coming in Points, and most of his best form has come in soft/heavy ground. Trainer knows what it takes to win this race but could've presumably been ridden by Ruby Walsh who is now aboard On His Own. Jumps well and, if he does stay and doesn't find the ground too quick, he could get involved at the finish. 

14. Shakalakaboomboom (8-10-12)

Relatively inexperienced as a Chaser with just nine starts over fences. Eight of those have come in handicap company but he showed when winning a good race at Cheltenham over 26 furlongs in December that he has the necessary class to win this. Now on a career high mark but open to improvement over extreme trips and passes a lot of the trends to be seriously considered if his age and inexperience don't cause a problem. Wouldn't want much more rain and represents a Trainer who, for all his achievements, doesn't have a good record in this race with all nine of his runners in the past ten years failing to place. 

15. West End Rocker (10-10-12)

Winner of the Becher here in December when last seen but the absence since then is a concern. Brought Down at the sixth in this race last season and, although two of his five victories have come in good ground, he may be seen to better effect with the mud flying. Highly likely to stay and the way he jumped in the Becher suggests he enjoys these fences. If the rain comes his chances will be greatly enhanced but his absence and a light campaign are not typical preparations of a winner. Twelve pound rise for that last win sees him on a career high mark and he is a bit of an all or nothing character. Capable of going well for a top trainer.

16. According To Pete (11-10-12)

Done most of his winning on soft/heavy ground and he will be praying the rain arrives. Went without a win for three years prior to winning the Rowland Meryck at Wetherby (heavy) and the Peter Marsh (soft) at Haydock in consecutive outings in December and January this season. A stat that is actually against him (9 of the last 10 winners had won no more than one Chase in the current campaign). He followed that with a second in Ballabriggs comeback race at Kelso on good ground and runs here from a mark of 149, which is four pounds higher than it will be in future handicaps. Done most of his winning on the Northern circuit but has yet to fall in 14 starts over fences and, even though he is not the biggest of horses he is normally a safe jumper. Has five Chase victories to his name, two in handicaps, has been seen out five time this season and has enough in his favour to get involved, especially if plenty of rain gets into the ground. Probably a shade high in the handicap for win purposes but represents a yard who have notched a double here with the two horses with which they did the same at the Festival. 

17. On His Own (8-10-11)

Now the mount of Ruby Walsh after the defection of Prince De Beauchene and he is probably proving popular on that basis alone. However he is not eight until July and he has just six starts over fences behind him. He has won three of them including last time out in the Thyestes at Gowran Park from a mark of 125. That was by far his best effort to date on only his second start for his current yard (formerly with Howard Johnson) but it means he has seen allocated a mark of 148 for this. Two of his three victories have come going right handed and it was noticeable that he kept jumping to his right when winning at Ayr going the other way round. Comes her on the back of just two outings this season and hasn't been seen for 77 days. Probably has the raw ability to run well and certainly has more than potential than most of these but this race may come a bit soon in his career and there are horses at bigger prices who hold better credentials. 

18. Always Right (10-10-10) 

Came within a length of winning last seasons Scottish Grand National and enjoyed a progressive first season in handicaps under rules. That looked set to continue when he won his return at Kelso in December but he has been pulled up in his last two starts, the latest when stopping quickly after travelling well into the latter stages of the Grand National Trial at Haydock. That suggested all was not well and he has since had a wind operation. He jumps and travels well and if his procedure has cured what has been ailing him recently then he satisfies most of the strong trends for this race. He is tactically versatile and he has no ground issues. His mark of 147 still looks within his capabilities and he should get away with an absence of 56 days. His well-being is obviously the issue but his price compensates for that concern and he is one to be interested in.

19. Cappa Bleu (10-10-10)

Winner of the Foxhunters at the Festival back in 2009 but has only came back to that level in three runs this season. Has only had six runs over fences under rules but had four wins in six Points prior to that. Both Chase victories came in G/S ground and is lightly raced enough to still have the potential for more. Irish bred and, his inexperience aside, he has plenty going for him. Stable Jockey rides in preference to both State Of Play and Deep Purple and couldn't rule him out getting highly competitive. 

20. Rare Bob (10-10-9) 

Unseated his rider in the John Smiths on the Mildmay course at last seasons meeting but that is the only occasion he has got rid of his jockey in 24 Chases. A winner of four of those starts and he has improved with each of his five outings this season. Well beaten in the Becher Chase here in December behind West End Rocker but there have been more positive signs without the cheekpieces in his last two outings. Obviously vulnerable to improvers but likes to race up with the pace so he could go well for a long way and, even though his best days may be behind him, he could fight it out for a place if his stamina holds out. 

21. Organisedconfusion (7-10-8) 

Had plenty of Chasing experience for one of his age and ran out an easy winner of the Irish National last season. Now thirteen pounds higher and has been kept to hurdles and/or shorter trips this season in an attempt to protect his mark. That win has been the only time he has gone beyond 21 furlongs under rules so he is open to all manner of improvement now he steps back up in trip for the first time since. Fell for the first time on his penultimate start at Leopardstown but the biggest concern is that he is not even seven until next month. 
It's been 72 years since a seven year old won this race, although to be fair only 22 have tried. Most of his form is in testing conditions but his National win came on good ground and it may be that he just needs a test of stamina. Appeals as a horse with plenty of untapped potential and, although the heart gives him a decent chance, the head says that he will hold better chances in future years for win purposes. None of the previous 22 seven year olds have even placed but that may not be beyond this horse. 

22. Treacle (11-10-7)

Seemed to find marked improvement in a Grade One at Leopardstown last time out but had run well there on his previous starts and on his reappearance at Gowran Park in December. Has been allocated a mark of 145 on the back of those efforts and, while that looks harsh judged on the rest of his form, he would still be feasibly weighted if that latest run is taken at face value. Has been well beaten, fallen and pulled up in three of his four attempts at beyond three miles and was beaten nearly eleven lengths the only other time in a veteran's Chase here in October. Percentage call is to oppose on balance but still a nagging doubt that connections have plotted this out well and he could get competitive if his stamina holds out. 

23. The Midnight Club (11-10-8) 

Favourite for last seasons race but his jumping let him down. Did well to finish sixth in the circumstances, staying on well late in the day. Progressive last season but hasn't been in the same kind of form in this campaign. His participation in the Gold Cup was presumably to get him right for this and he is now four pounds lower in the handicap than he was for last seasons race. He needs to bounce back to his best and he probably needs to jump with more authority than he did last season. However both of those are possible and, although his best Chasing form has been on right handed tracks, he had good hurdling form at the Cheltenham Festival going the other way. The defection of Ruby Walsh is not encouraging but Paul Townend, who was on board for his last victory, returns for the first time since. No ground issues and tempting at a big price. 

24. Mon Mome (12-10-8)

100/1 winner of this race three years ago and showed he retains ability when finishing second at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Now three pounds lower in the handicap than when won this race but didn't show much at Cheltenham last time out. Stays all day and could well complete but it's likely he will be out of the frame. 

25. Arbor Supreme (10-10-7) 

Has failed to complete in the last two renewals of this race and those jumping frailties are a big concern. There hasn't been much encouragement for his new yard in two runs over hurdles this season and that light campaign and a 122 days absence are further negatives. Still looks high in the weights and would be a surprise if he were to even place. 

26. Sunnyhillboy (9-10-7) 

Won the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival last time out and finished third in last seasons Irish Grand National (now ten pounds better off with Organisedconfusion who beat him six lengths. Festival winners coming here in the same season don't have a good record and Sunnyhillboy is prone to mistakes. Not a very big horse and it remains to be seen how he takes to these fences. Officially ten pound well in here after that Kim Muir victory so he is well handicapped and he is versatile regarding ground conditions. Definitely has the class and ability and satisfies a lot of the strong trends but it's his jumping and the effect that may have on his ability to travel well through the race which is the major concern.

27. Killyglen (10-10-4)

Still getting competitive when falling four out in this race last year and now five pounds lower in the handicap. He was the winner of a Novice Chase on the Mildmay course in 2009 and he returned to form after a soft palate operation last time out at Down Royal. He has no ground issues but he has yet to win a Chase in handicap company which is a negative. He is a former Grade Two winner over fences though and he is seven pounds better off for just over a six length beating by Cappa Bleu at Haydock in November. Comes here on the back of just two runs and doesn't have much form in big fields but his run in this race last season is still fresh in the memory and if his breathing operation has worked the oracle he could make the frame at least.

28. Quiscover Fontaine (8-10-4)

Confined to hurdles for his three outings this season in order to protect his handicap mark but he has only had seven outings over fences so far and only two of those have come in handicaps. Finished fourth in last year's Irish National the only time he ventured beyond 20 furlongs and he made up a lot of late ground. No victory over three miles plus, a 77 days absence, still being short of his eight birthday and being a French bred are all negatives. Has plenty of potential but there are likely to be other days for him. 

29. Tharawaat (7-10-4)

Seven year old who hasn't been at his best in his last three starts and has major stamina doubts. Flat bred and doesn't give the impression he is a National type at all. Not sure he will have many supporters and readily dismissed.

30. Becauseicouldntsee (9-10-3)

Ran a good race to finish second in the Kim Muir at the Festival last time out but the record of horses coming from there in the season isn't good. Lacks handicap Chase experience and was an earlier faller in this race last season. Bold jumping front runner who should be suited to the demands of this race but has taken a tumble in three of his eleven Chases to date. Only won a Beginners Chase up to now and hasn't won beyond three miles under rules. Likely to give it a good shot but too many little doubts to support with any confidence. 

31. State Of Play (12-10-3)

Been an admirable servant to connections and has finished placed in the last three renewals of this race. His only run in the last two seasons have been in the National but it hasn't stopped him running blinders. Two pounds lower this year so a repeat feat is not out of the question. However now into his veteran years and, although he deserves to be placed again, the likelihood is that he will complete but finish outside the places. Stable jockey deserts him for the first time in this race for Cappa Bleu. 

32. Swing Bill (11-10-3)

Doesn't look well handicapped and there is a major doubt him getting this trip. Honest sort but doesn't look to have the requisite class to win a race of this nature. Respected connections but that's about as good as it gets.

33. Postmaster (10-10-2)

Only been seen once this season and that was when winning a Hunter Chase at Ludlow. Thoroughly exposed and none of his victories suggest he has the class to get competitive in a race of this nature. Fell at the first in the Topham last season and easily opposed.

34. Giles Cross ( 10-10-1) 

All three of his victories over fences have come in very testing conditions up to 28 furlongs and the more rain that falls the better he will like it. Has run well on G/S ground but wouldn't want it any faster (which looks unlikely at this stage). Stills looks to be progressing and hasn't been over raced as a ten year old. However all three runs this season have been hard races and it remains to be seen if they have left their mark. Able to run off the same mark as when winning the Grand National trial and his style of running will be suited to this race. Knuckled on landing the only time he has fallen in his 12 Chases and is normally a sound jumper. If the ground comes right for him he has enough in his favour to run a big race. Paddy Brennan takes over from Denis O'Regan who couldn't do the weight and refused the offer to ride overweight to give the horse the best possible chance. 

35. Midnight Haze (10-10-0)

Ran well but faded late on in the Cross Country Chase at the Festival and that raises stamina doubts. Won four of his ten Chases, three in handicap company, but none of them suggest he has the class to get competitive in a race of this quality. Sound jumper and could outrun his odds but not tempting enough for even as place from a career high mark. 

36. Vic Venturi (12-10-0)

Failed to complete in the last two renewals of this race but is a former Becher winner and ran well to finish second in the Punchestown Gold Cup as recently as last May. Wasn't seen after that until reappearing in two Points in January, winning both. Ran a terrible race in a Hunter Chase last time out at Leopardstown but scoped dirty after that performance so it can probably be excused. On a good mark nowadays but hasn't won in handicap company for nearly two and a half years and it's debatable if he retains the ability to take advantage of his rating. Most of his victories have come in testing conditions but the jury's out on whether he will see out today's trip.

37. In Compliance (12-10-0)

Major stamina doubts having never won beyond 22 furlongs and looks on the downgrade nowadays. Easily opposable.

38. Viking Blond (7-10-0)

A seven year whose only had five races over fences and doesn't like being crowded. None of that augurs well here and he was well behind Cappa Bleu at Wetherby last time out. 

39. Hello Bud (14-10-0)

Admirable fifth at Warwick in January over 29 furlongs and is normally an assured Jumper. Fifth in this race in 2010 but pulled up last year and unlikely to have the legs to get seriously involved with the best of these. Deserves to get round. 

40. Neptune Equestor (9-10-0)

Five pound out of the handicap but that's sometimes not a huge disadvantage in this race. Won over 28 furlongs at Haydock in November but hasn't repeated that form in four races since. A winner of four of his 16 starts over fences but seems to lack the class to be effective at this level. 

Shortlist: 

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Neptune Collognes, Shakalakboomboom, Planet Of Sound, Chicago Grey, Seabass or Organisedconfusuion run well but for one reason or another they just fall off our shortlist which comprises of the following horses:

West End Rocker (best priced @ 14/1)
According To Pete (best priced @ 33/1)
Always Right (best priced @ 28/1)
Cappa Bleu (best priced @ 18/1) 
Rare Bob (best priced @ 40/1)
Treacle (best priced @ 25/1)
The Midnight Club (best priced @ 40/1) 
Killyglen (best priced @ 18/1)
Giles Cross (best priced @ 18/1)

Of these the following are recommended for support:

Cappa Bleu - 1pt win . Available at 18/1 (Coral, Bet365)
Giles Cross - 1pt win. Available at 18/1 (General)
Killyglen - 1 pt win. Available at 18/1 (General)
Always Right - 1 pt e/w. Available at 28/1 (Sportingbet, 1/4 odds first 6l)
The Midnight Club - 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 40/1. (SJ, Blue Square, Boylesports, 1/4 odds first 5) 

Total outlay - 6 points

Regards
 
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