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-£ but most +ev. Is my math correct here?
dnt like the raise preflop if your floating why not call ? and try take down later street and on the turn its deffo a check call here
Comments
Is my math correct?
we have 25% equity vs villains hand
(Edit, and vs villains range.
AA,KcKd,KcKh,KdKh,QQ,TT,AcKc,AdKd,AhKh,AsTs,KcQc,KdQd,
KhQh,KcTc,KdTd,KhTh,QsTs,JsTs,AcKd,AcKh,AdKc,AdKh,AhKc,
AhKd,AsKc,AsKd,AsKh,KcQd,KcQh,KcQs,KdQc,KdQh,KdQs,KhQc
,KhQd,KhQs,KcTd,KcTh,KcTs,KdTc,KdTh,KdTs,KhTc,KhTd,KhTs we have25% equity)
so if we fold we loss £31.07
so if we fold 4 times we loss £124.28
If we call we loss 3 times £171.03
And win 1 time £114.02
£171.03 - £114.02 = a total loss of £57.01
So Fold vs Call.
Fold we loss £31.07
Call we loss £14.25
So allthough -£ the most +ev play in this situation is to call.
OOP: Fold /> 4bet > Call IMO.
Villains also has no calling range and at a guess i'd say he's 3Betting 12%
10s+,A10o+, A9s+, All suited broadways and KQo
If played this way have to call turn once opened. Math is slghtly off, but still closer to a call than fold - ergo a call.
Bink & apologise.
You do the opposite of what I see and hear so much lately. You give yourself EVERY chance to with this pot. Sure, he has J's on this occasion.
BonB, we get creative, pick up equity and try to push him off what would often be a marginal holding.
I cant be a computor. Every hand oughtnt to be a cooler. One would think that creative aggressive poker is a good thing, rather than something to be criticised. Even though he is at the top of his range here, you still put him in a hard spot and still hold plenty of equity.
I may be hugely wrong, maybe it is better to play like a robot. Maybe this isnt great multi table approach. But it certainly isnt bad poker.
Some of the replys to the thread arn't making much sence.
Im not asking if my play is good or bad, Im asking someone to check my maths, as this isnt my strong point.
Also villain is raping me IP with these 3Bets, I do have a 4Bet bluff range and I'd guess that if I 4bet or folded vs villian than I'd be even money, that said I wanna make money by exploiting villian in this situation. so I've choose a 3Bet calling range with the intention on check/raiseing alot of low flops.
If anyone can tell me a better way to exploit villains 3Betting IP than please elaborate instead of telling me my play sux.
Input from some of the respected regs would be nice?
Only flaw in your maths is your taking it I have jacks, what if I have higher flush draw, or sets etc.
You could nearly be dead already.
Vs KK we have 23%
vs K10s we have 25%
vs AsQs we have 20%
and vs As10s 6.8%
But vs range its 25%.
Ok, I guess AsTs is only hand your bad against.
I would just unhappily snap call from your spot in that hand to be honest, too little time for me to do maths.
I just thought it would be a good hand to review for people in the forum, and to show that a -£ call can be better that a fold.
Hope someone can learn supm from all this.
I think my grasp on villains range is correct.
So are you saying that the villian cant be explioted in this situation? And i just have to except breaking even from folding 3/4 of the time and 4Betting 1/4 of the time?
Plus I already covered the math: "£25 into £89 with 12outs @ turn.If played this way have to call turn once opened. Math is slghtly off, but still closer to a call than fold - ergo a call.".
In previous posts you seem to think that i donk have a clue about villains range. Villain and I have played 1k's of hands together. I think I have villains range down. Like I said 12-14% all broadway combos.
I Have to disagree with you about not being able to turn a profit long term.
First; Yes the numbers on the call are fine. You can reasonably expect to have 12 outs, so are 3/1 to win. Therefore you need 3/1 pot odds and 89/26 is better than 3/1. You'd be pretty unlucky to see a higher flush draw.
I do have concerns with your flop raise size and your turn bet size though.
The problem with the flop check-raise is that you offer really good odds on the call. I don't necessarily hate the size but you have to be confident that it will get two random overcards to fold (so it's read dependent). You are making a pure bluff here. You can't like getting called and if you can't get two overs to fold, then what's the point? With that in mind, one of two things is wrong: Either the size of your raise is wrong or the range you're assigning to your opponent on the turn should not include those AK, KQ type hands that had no hand and no draw on the flop. You should be making a raise that you would expect to only be called by a made hand, not be called by just two overs or as a float.
The issue I have with the turn bet is that it's a bit small. If you're leading out on the turn you might as well make a bet that continues a reasonably strong story and gives a chance to those weak one-pair hands to fold. You're not going to be bet-folding, so make it £20. However, I'm not sure we should be leading on this turn.
The alternative to the bet-call line on the turn would be a check-fold, I think. I wouldn't mind that since you should expect that your check-raise on the flop would only be called by a made hand, with no draws on this dry flop. Once you check you wouldn't be getting the right odds to call, unless he makes a very small bet, and you might just get a free card out of him.
As for playing out of position; we do need to form strategies for doing it. We definitely don't want to play out of position but it can't always be avoided. In this case, I think you had a sound strategy for dealing with someone who had been 3-betting alot. Calling with the 67s or similar and check-raising a dry flop is fine but once our check-raise fails, most of the time we'll have to give up.
So in this hand, if I was using your strategy, I'd check-raise the flop to about £15 or £17, then check-fold the turn. I'm sure there are people who'd disagree.
EV of calling (assuming your range correct)
=(89.08*0.25)-(25.94*0.75)
=22.27-19.46
=+£2.81
so its a call.
We dont own money in pot already so I would usually use above method, your method may be fine also
I'm not a respected reg,i am a simple micro stakes player so if someone could confirm whether my math is right or wrong it would be appreciated.