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Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.

djblacke04djblacke04
edited April 2012 in Area 51


ok as you may know we have been studying the results of certain hands now for the last 6 months..

so far :

Pocket Pair v Raggy A= 45% win instead of 55% win...  
KK v Anything.....       = 60% win instead of 70% win...

hmmm.. we are now onto AA v anything..... 
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  • step7step7
    edited April 2012
    How many hands in your study? Are you just examing preflop all ins or all situations?

    Not sure what you classifying as a raggy ace, but would expect pp to bet winning a lot more often than 55%

    End of the day I suspect you just have a relatively small sample and seeing negative variance at work.
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  • djblacke04djblacke04
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    How many hands in your study? Are you just examing preflop all ins or all situations? Not sure what you classifying as a raggy ace, but would expect pp to bet winning a lot more often than 55% End of the day I suspect you just have a relatively small sample and seeing negative variance at work.
    Posted by step7

    yep 6 months of 51 player's contributions... very small sample size :)
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  • step7step7
    edited April 2012
    Suggestion for your "experiment", every hand you add to your collected samples deal a board from a real pack of cards - this can be your control. Post the results from the control alongside the online results.

    Not here to defend any online poker site, just trying to help you understand the underlying mathematics. If you find results are seriously skewed toward certain weaker hands winning above their expectation then you have two options:
    1. Call foul and don't play on that site anymore.
    2. Start playing those hands and exploit your findings.
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  • djblacke04djblacke04
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    Suggestion for your "experiment", every hand you add to your collected samples deal a board from a real pack of cards - this can be your control. Post the results from the control alongside the online results. Not here to defend any online poker site, just trying to help you understand the underlying mathematics. If you find results are seriously skewed toward certain weaker hands winning above their expectation then you have two options: 1. Call foul and don't play on that site anymore. 2. Start playing those hands and exploit your findings.
    Posted by step7
    suppose you only find hands that lose more than they should....fold KK pre?
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  • step7step7
    edited April 2012
    If that's what your data telling you yes - good luck.
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  • SlykllistSlykllist
    edited April 2012
    I won a hand with AA and stacked a guy earlier, add that to your 'sample'

    As you very well know Toby, you're only ever gonna get the bad beat stories in this 'study'
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  • SlykllistSlykllist
    edited April 2012
    I just beat KK with my A8off

    because..... he literally couln't have played the hand any worse!
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  • step7step7
    edited April 2012
    Or maybe he pot controlled knowing his KK going to get cracked anyways??

    And you won bl@@y two hands with AA - in quick succession - submit them both for analysis.
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  • splashiessplashies
    edited April 2012
    lol I've seen some nonsense in my time in Area51, but this takes the biscuit.


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  • djblacke04djblacke04
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    I won a hand with AA and stacked a guy earlier, add that to your 'sample' As you very well know Toby, you're only ever gonna get the bad beat stories in this 'study'
    Posted by Slykllist

    FYI this has been a study based on observations of over 5000 games,and no particular players.... we just sat down and watched...

    we all kept quiet and just posted on our survey what the out come was eg KK > A6 flop 667 turn 2 river 3..

    ( it was hands that went to showdown)

    this has been going on for last 6 months with various hands.




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  • Tikay10Tikay10
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    ok as you may know we have been studying the results of certain hands now for the last 6 months.. so far : Pocket Pair v Raggy A= 45% win instead of 55% win...   KK v Anything.....       = 60% win instead of 70% win... hmmm.. we are now onto AA v anything..... 
    Posted by djblacke04
    Hi Toby,

    Would you like to explain the criteria by which you measure this, please? It's not for me to reveal it, but it IS relevant to the results, in my opinion.  
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  • Tikay10Tikay10
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good. : FYI this has been a study based on observations of over 5000 games,and no particular players.... we just sat down and watched... we all kept quiet and just posted on our survey what the out come was eg KK /> A6 flop 667 turn 2 river 3.. ( it was hands that went to showdown) this has been going on for last 6 months with various hands.
    Posted by djblacke04
    I would respectfully suggest that therein lies Clue # 1.

    We play K-K VERY strongly (or should), & generally, by betting pre flop, flop, & turn, our customer lets go by then. But those hands do not reach showdown, so are not included in the results......

    As such, the ONLY hands that are still in by the River, are the sets, 2 pairs & suchlike that are beating us.....      
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  • Tikay10Tikay10
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    I just beat KK with my A8off because..... he literally couln't have played the hand any worse!
    Posted by Slykllist
    I would respectfully suggest that there is Clue # 2.

    The results of hands ARE strongly determined by how well, or badly, we play them, I would say.....the survey does not include this critical factor, though.
     
    Essentially, you can make a survey say anything you want it too if you frame it accordingly.
     
    The survey is fine, of course, anyone can do one, though I'm not entirely sure what it sets out to prove.

    I've played poker for well over a decade. I've never played a SINGLE session in all that time where I did not get outdrawn a few times, & ourdraw others a few times.
     
    Anyway, this is my annual visit to Area 51, time for me to go I think, it blows my mind when I see this stuff.

    Have a good day, all of you.  
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  • SlykllistSlykllist
    edited April 2012
    I love to pop in to Area 51 every now and again when I need a good laugh Tikay, some of the stuff in here is hilarious!
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2012

    You should ask Don if you can include the figures off his spreadsheet.

    He forgot to add the flip he won in the orfordable when I was watching him though, I had to remind him later.

    He assures me that's the first one he forgot to add.

    Think he may have forgot that he's forgot some though.

    DJ FTW :)))

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  • igimcigimc
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    I love to pop in to Area 51 every now and again when I need a good laugh Tikay, some of the stuff in here is hilarious!
    Posted by Slykllist
    "tikay tikay,you're my hero".You can ask him for your tongue back now.
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  • jonjo75jonjo75
    edited April 2012
    So every time someone has had KK and lets say four bet pre and got the opponent to fold , you can not have counted this because you did not know they had KK(no cards were shown).
    I think there is a slight flaw in your experiment.
    DOH !!
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2012
    btw, if KK is winning 60% of the time in the hands that actually get to showdown, I'd suggest that's too often.

    The majority of your sample, you will have raised or 3b pre flop?

    Bet flop?

    Bet turn?

    Bet/shoved river?

    How often do you get 3 streets of value from worse with KK?

    Less than 60% imo.

    Team's obviously running golden ;)


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  • LadyFingrsLadyFingrs
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good. : suppose you only find hands that lose more than they should....fold KK pre?
    Posted by djblacke04
    If KK still won 60% of the time why would you fold it haha

    God damn this area of the forum is amaaaazing! Pure gold! Keep up the experiments guys.

    Heres a thought though, if Sky was rigging hands, for whatever reason, why would they allow crackpots to make threads like this.
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  • LadyFingrsLadyFingrs
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good. : I would respectfully suggest that there is Clue # 2. The results of hands ARE strongly determined by how well, or badly, we play them, I would say.....the survey does not include this critical factor, though.   Essentially, you can make a survey say anything you want it too if you frame it accordingly.   The survey is fine, of course, anyone can do one, though I'm not entirely sure what it sets out to prove. I've played poker for well over a decade. I've never played a SINGLE session in all that time where I did not get outdrawn a few times, & ourdraw others a few times.   Anyway, this is my annual visit to Area 51, time for me to go I think, it blows my mind when I see this stuff. Have a good day, all of you.  
    Posted by Tikay10
    Why would you do this respectfully, it just validates the ridiculousness.

    Next time just quote post > "lol" > exit thread.
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  • pod1pod1
    edited April 2012
    cant believe i wasted 4 mins of my life reading this, more importantly i cant believe so many people wasted so much of there time collecting info like this when the whole expoeriment is flawed!
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  • Seagull158Seagull158
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    lol I've seen some nonsense in my time in Area51, but this takes the biscuit.
    Posted by splashies
    LOL at the "flat earther" making the expected response.
    Only surprise to me is that the bias against the "correct" random odds is only 10%.
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  • GREGHOGGGREGHOGG
    edited April 2012
    And i thought Don's "flip" spreadsheet was pointless (well it is!)

    This is also a complete waste of time

    Why not concentrate on improving your poker game rather than analysing something that achieves nothing (other than waste time)

    Might as well count how many red cars pass your house on a Thursday morning, and compare it to a Sunday morning. Then do the same with Blue cars the following week

    Anorak Alert!

    :)
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  • Seagull158Seagull158
    edited April 2012
    On a completely unrelated topic - I thought James Murdoch's evidence today was quite enlightening.
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  • splashiessplashies
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    And i thought Don's "flip" spreadsheet was pointless (well it is!) This is also a complete waste of time Why not concentrate on improving your poker game rather than analysing something that achieves nothing (other than waste time) Might as well count how many red cars pass your house on a Thursday morning, and compare it to a Sunday morning. Then do the same with Blue cars the following week Anorak Alert! :)
    Posted by GREGHOGG
    HaHa!

    I'm going to do this. I live in a cul-de-sac though, so in theory i should count the same number of red cars each day. If there a different numbers each day, then something is definitely amiss.

    I'll report back in a few weeks.
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  • Tikay10Tikay10
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good. : HaHa! I'm going to do this. I live in a cul-de-sac though, so in theory i should count the same number of red cars each day. If there a different numbers each day, then something is definitely amiss. I'll report back in a few weeks.
    Posted by splashies
    Will you still count them if they don't go to the end of the cul-de-sac?
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  • Tikay10Tikay10
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good. : Why would you do this respectfully, it just validates the ridiculousness. Next time just quote post > "lol" > exit thread.
    Posted by LadyFingrs
    Well I prefer not to be rude, & given my position here I'm never going to be. It's a bit like fighting with one arm tied behind my back, but thats how it is.

    One day I'll be able to speak my mind openly, & say what I really think, but I have no desire to bring that time forward.....so "respectfully" it is.
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  • pod1pod1
    edited April 2012
    you will get your day tikay im sure, god forbid when that day arrives :-)
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  • step7step7
    edited April 2012
    Quote: Heres a thought though, if Sky was rigging hands, for whatever reason, why would they allow crackpots to make threads like this.

    As cover of course, God knows DJ even works for Sky! While we are all laughing at this thread we'll ignore what is plainly going on under our noses!!
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  • LadyFingrsLadyFingrs
    edited April 2012
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good.:
    In Response to Re: Probabilites....and our study so far..not looking good. : Will you still count them if they don't go to the end of the cul-de-sac?
    Posted by Tikay10
    A+
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