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Was this the right play?
Obviously after the event I should have folded.But was the all in the right move?First hand btw.
:39 30/04/2012)PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancegreggles65Small blind 10.0010.00990.00bignoise10Big blind 20.0030.00980.00 Your hole cards55 greggles65Raise 90.00120.00900.00bignoise10All-in 980.001100.000.00greggles65All-in 900.002000.000.00greggles65ShowJ5 bignoise10Show55 Flop Q78 Turn J River A greggles65Win
Comments
I don't think there are many players that are going to open so big with a big pair. Even inexperienced players will want to get value for their AA, KK, QQ, etc. so I wouldn't worry about those hands. I wouldn't assign his raise any great strength.
Since we only start 50BB deep and we're facing a big bet, I wouldn't like to call and see a flop. We certainly can't be set-mining for 10% of our stack and set-mining in heads-up sng's is pretty bad anyway. Our 55 isn't going to play well on any flop that doesn't contain a 5 and we're going to be out of position too, so we'll find it tricky to take down the pot. With 45BB back and a 10BB pot our moves are going to be limited.
Basically, I think it's too tight to fold and too tough to play a flop by calling, so I'd definitely want to 3-bet. The pot is 120 and we've got 980 back so any raise we make is going to commit us to the hand. So yes, I think the shove is correct. We've got reasonable fold equity for the shove and I wouldn't mind getting called by two overs and I'd be delighted to be called by J5.
If he had called us with AA, then that's something we need to take note of to use against this player in future. Equally, the fact that he did this with J5 is also something that we need to note. (Remember to date your notes, because all players are capable of improving)
1. Do you jam in a cash game 50BB deep? (just interested, not that relevant)
2. Fold pre is too tight, whatever, who cares its not like he knows we folded 55. Its not really that big a hand anyway
3. I think deciding an unknown doesnt do this with big hands is wrong, without some other info on raise size, it may just be his standard. Also people who open 5x more likely to call light in my experiene
4 The logic that folding is too tight ,its difficult to play if we call oop therefore we should 3bet doesnt add up to me (doesnt mean you cant 3bet, dont like the line of reasoning though)
5. I prefer 3b/c to jamming, even though it sucks a bit when he calls I think we get more folds
6. I think jamming pre is prob +cEV. Is it really the best option though against a player who looks like he might not be good? We are prob usually a slight dog v calling range, if he folds the 100 chips we win doesnt change things that much. Do you think theres merit in letting this go and waiting till we know a bit more?
7 Noteing he had AA overrated imo, just cos he shows AA doesnt mean he doesnt call wide. Noting he had J5 pretty important though
2) 55 is a big hand especially facing one bet. Most players will open every or nearly every button meaning that his range is close to any two. Pairs come once in every 16 hands so our pair is very likely best right now.
3) It may just be his standard opening bet but even someone who does this as standard will recognise that it's going to be hard for their opponent to get involved without some sort of hand. Since most of the time we figure to not have a strong hand, if he has AA or KK, he won't want us to snap fold our J8 or 57. The dyamic between him and his opponents may develop to make a 5x bet the way to go but readless almost every hand will be folded. (At least a significant majority of the time)
4) As I said in point 2, 55 is a big hand heads-up. The fold equity we have, added to the chance of getting called in a race, makes up for the relatively slim chance of our opponent having an overpair.
5) Any 3-bet is going to be a quarter of our stack at the very least. Leaving us pretty short in SPR terms on the flop if called. If he shoves on us we lose all that value of the fold equity and are forced to call in a spot we don't really love. I think we might as well shove and save ourselves some trouble from those occasions he calls a 250-300 3-bet. Obviously, in position might be a different story.
6) We don't really know that he's not good but we can say that he's almost certainly made a mistake here with his 5x opening bet. Granted, those 100 chips aren't massive but they are significant and we need to win them sometime... There are definitely arguments to say we could fold and look to play pots in position with small raises. The problem is that he may just be raising and 3-betting us wide for the next few hands while we try to make our small raises. Before we know it we could be 10-15BB down and forced to resort to shoving with a wide range ourselves to negate his aggression. Here we have a +ev spot and readless that has to take priority. Once we have a better idea of this opponent we can pass up potential spots like this in the knowledge that we can outplay him. Assuming that we play this opponent again, or that he folds and we carry on in the sng, we can take advantage of our reads later. Poker is a never-ending game... I once heard someone say.
7) I think that we've seen him open for 5x with AA would be worth a note in just the same way that it would be worth a note that he'd opened for 5x and folded for a shove. I'm not saying that it's supremely useful to note what we've seen him do in one hand but we can add future examples too. (Truth be told, I hardly ever take a note on my opponents. I do think it's good practice though)
Don't get me wrong, it's super-high variance to make this shove. However, without reads I'm confident it's +ev. We might never see this guy again and I think we have to stick with what's profitable in the long run, even if it's only slightly profitable.
3. Disagree with your assumptions here, obv they are assumptions I cant prove you wrong
4. Dont really have a problem with 3betting it, your reasoning there is fine. My point stands though, just cos we dont like folding and its hard to play if we call doesnt auto mean we should 3bet
5 yeah, I understand the reasons for shoving. Just in my experience small 3bets get more folds
6 Hard argue with anything you say there. I think though I will have an advantage on the guy who opens 5x generally (I'm an arrogant mofo) and I think theres definitely an argument for just folding till we get some slightly better feel for his play, cos that 5x raise is usually exploitable, and as I said above its not great when we get it in and stealing the 120 chips in pot wont make a huge difference. You make a lot of sense though, Im just trying to work out a clear answer for myself
7 lol yeah note everything. Not particularly aimed at you really, people always say note it when someone bets big with the nuts, think thats a note with limited use without knowing what else he bets the same way
Thanks for the reply