Can I fold, as played?

greenjoe

Early in the tournament (10k bh) and I have no notes on the opponent. Now my question is, can I fold when he shoves the river? King,Jack seems to be the only hand that has took over me by the river (is what i thought, anyway). I was initialy going to barrell the river for value if he checked to me like on other streets but when he shoved; I did think about folding because all I can beat is a complete bluff. BUT eventually, I did call because I thats what I thought he had. I WAS WRONG!

Hand History #516353771 (20:10 07/05/2012)

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
roland77	Small blind		10.00	10.00	1960.00
MOOCH	Big blind		20.00	30.00	1950.00
	Your hole cards	A 7
ROGUE77	Fold
greenjoe	Raise		60.00	90.00	1980.00
28havo28	Fold
Mucka1	Fold
roland77	Fold
MOOCH	Call		40.00	130.00	1910.00
Flop
		10 7 5
MOOCH	Check
greenjoe	Bet		65.00	195.00	1915.00
MOOCH	Call		65.00	260.00	1845.00
Turn
		A
MOOCH	Check
greenjoe	Bet		130.00	390.00	1785.00
MOOCH	Call		130.00	520.00	1715.00
River
		Q
MOOCH	All-in		1715.00	2235.00	0.00
greenjoe	Call		1715.00	3950.00	70.00
MOOCH	Show	Q Q
greenjoe	Show	A 7
MOOCH	Win	Three Queens	3950.00		3950.00

KAM99

100% fold for me. I'd give it some thought, but just not sure I'd like to gamble he is bluffing here often enough so early in a tournament. That said not sure why you are raising pre with such a poor hand at level one? Seems a bit of a waste of chips. I guess if you that desperate to look for a flush I could see calling, but blind aren't worth stealing and most callers will have a better hand.

Oh, and if KJ was the only hand you thought of that he shoves there, its hardly the only hand he could have, and not the only one he may shove here.

AMYBR

Readless its very difficult to say.

My first instinct would have been KJ/AQ/A10.  But they dont really make a great deal of sense.  So would likely lean towards bluffs and sets.

Would depend on BI, but can honestly not fully decide tbh.  Its close.  If oppo c/r's river i'd be inclined to fold or if we are oop and he sets us in when we open id likely be in bf mode.  But as we are IP and he just fires off his stack I would think bad player Ax or bluff more than "I'm beat" I suspect.  But this is very much one of my online leaks (lack of credit).

But with very limited time to decide and readless I prob assume oppo is bad and call (lol)

EvilPingu

Okay, my thoughts are as follows:

Pre-flop

We could probably fold pre. I don't think the raise is terrible, but we're in the Hijack. From the button, a raise is fine but in the Hijack I can probably let this go at this stage of a tournament. It's more likely to get us into trouble when we hit sideways than it is to win us a big pot.

Also, we're not really deep enough to be playing this - A7 is a rag ace. It is suited, but when we're only 100bb deep, Ax suited isn't great. Ax suited plays much better when we're deeper (e.g. start of the Super Roller recently, everyone started with 330bb) as we're going to be stacking people with coolers, nut flush vs 2nd nut flush, nut flush vs straight, etc, so this hand becomes more playable if we're deeper.

I think if this was the Primo where we start with 150bb, I like the raise more. 100bb deep, it's probably better to just fold.

Flop

I think the c-bet is fine. Some people may prefer to check back with middle pair, as better hands call and worse hands fold, but at the same time, if we check, we give a free card. It feels too passive to hit middle pair and just check/fold, but at the same time, we're never getting called by worse (maybe 76 and 78 but that's about it). This is why I fold pre, it's going to give us so many awkward decisions when we hit the flop sideways like this.

Turn

Turn is completely fine. I probably bet a little bit bigger, like 165, to get value from my opponent if he's got AJ+ or wants to call us second pair.

River

This is a really, really tough decision, and I can't blame you for calling.

River gives KJ broadway, but unless we know our opponent can call with just 2 overs on the flop, then call with a gutshot on the turn, then I'm discounting that. He'd have to be a massive station for me to even consider KJ here.

Opponent could have sets but it's difficult, I would probably expect to be 3bet pre by AA, QQ and maybe TT as well, I'd also expect to find out about a flopped set sooner than this. 

AQ is possible if villain can call flop with 2 overs. Then again, if that's the case, he's just as likely to turn up with AK which we beat.

AT is possible, although I expect more money to go in on the turn if he has AT. I'd expect a lot of bad players to take this exact line with QT. However, I think QT is the only hand which we are beating, even if it is the most likely thing we'll see here IMO, so this is really, really marginal. I probably chicken out and fold. It's such a strange decision - the opponent shouldn't ever turn up with anything better because of how it's played, but at the same time, we're only beating one hand.

However, this is where our notes come in handy - If we have notes on the villain saying he's passive (which he presumably is as he's flat called QQ pre when people are meant to be 3betting and getting stacks in), then it means he can have a set as he's more likely to flat call premium pairs pre-flop and on the flop, or take this line with a flopped set. Also, if we know he's passive, he's probably not value shoving very wide on the river, so are Aces and Sevens ever good?

I can't blame you for making the call, I think it is just about a fold, but it's a really, really interesting hand. Hope this is a TV table as it'd be really interesting to see this hand on the Poker Clinic show on Thursday IMO

Dudeskin8

Pre and flop fine.

Turn I bet more, at least 200 for value charge draws.

River I'm not sure I can fold in game even though it is a very big overbet, I can't really see any draw that gets there, only str8 is KJ and that just wouldn't get to river. 

All sets probably would have played it stronger on flop or turn. 

In BH's people will call raises pre with almost any two suited cards so I certainly wouldn't rule out many worse two pairs, Q7/Q5 for instance as well as T7/T5/75 who do the sneaky slow play then go crazy on river. Of course he can do the slow play then big river bet with hands that beat you but it's not only hands beating you here IMO.

Also think it would have been great if you left result out as it's not needed.

greenjoe

 Cheers for feedback guys, much appreciated. As for playing the rag Ace, fair enough, I could have folded pre but I wasn't going to get too excited about hitting just the Ace if opponent put up huge resistance. Once I turn two pair, I feel like my hand is almost certainly good (lol). I very nearly folded but I felt like I needed to see what he could possibly have or i'd be kicking myself for being bluffed out of a pretty big pot for this stage of the tournament.
@Evil, yh it was on TV Table so will be interesting to see it analysed. Really enjoying reading your diary btw, keep it up m8.

greenjoe

@Dude, yh I was thinking about leaving the result clear, but I wanted to see if anyone else would even consider a set of queens turning up here. If I was playing live, admittedly, I probably fold after tanking for an age and then 'unknowingly' regret it afterwards haha. I know my decision should be the same regardless but in a 10second gap, I just couldn't fold it.

KAM99

In Response to Re: Can I fold, as played?:

@Dude, yh I was thinking about leaving the result clear, but I wanted to see if anyone else would even consider a set of queens turning up here. If I was playing live, admittedly, I probably fold after tanking for an age and then 'unknowingly' regret it afterwards haha. I know my decision should be the same regardless but in a 10second gap, I just couldn't fold it.
Posted by greenjoe

Yeah I kind of forgot about that small issue.. In ten seconds I may well make the call as well, unlike what I said in first post. My main thoughts why I said fold are with no information I have to wonder what he will shove. I can't see them doing it with much less than two pair. Sure its possible a real donkey is doing it with a rag ace, or even AK, but most of the time I wouldn't be expecting that after way he played it.. but then wouldn't expect the shove either. To be honest its hands like this (and cash multitable) that make me miss having a time bank. Mix in any latency in and sometimes 10 seconds is sucky amount of time. hehe