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KK facing 125bb river shove on raggy paired board

edited May 2012 in The Poker Clinic
I haven't played with this guy before this session and I've made a note on him which reads something along the lines of he likes to play strong hands quite cautiously.  I haven't seen him do anything like this all session.  Is a fold too tight? As I recall he shoved the river quite quickly.  Also what do you think of my turn bet? 
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
PCLOSUSER Small blind   £0.02 £0.02 £2.30
bigAL_69 Big blind   £0.04 £0.06 £3.06
  Your hole cards
  • K
  • K
     
BLOCKBUSTE Fold        
DickShaft Fold        
XXX Call   £0.04 £0.10 £8.10
chipchick Call   £0.04 £0.14 £3.52
TOD19 Fold        
Wilhelm Raise   £0.28 £0.42 £6.65
Fonzy180 Fold        
PCLOSUSER Fold        
bigAL_69 Fold        
XXX Call   £0.24 £0.66 £7.86
chipchick Call   £0.24 £0.90 £3.28
Flop
   
  • 3
  • 9
  • 5
     
XXX Check        
chipchick Check        
Wilhelm Bet   £0.68 £1.58 £5.97
XXX Call   £0.68 £2.26 £7.18
chipchick Fold        
Turn
   
  • 9
     
XXX Check        
Wilhelm Bet   £1.00 £3.26 £4.97
XXX Call   £1.00 £4.26 £6.18
River
   
  • 4
     
XXX All-in   £6.18 £10.44 £0.00
Wilhelm ???
       
           
           
           

Comments

  • edited May 2012
    Bet turn bigger, we want to leave less than a pot size bet behind to shove the river with, so bet like £1.60ish.

    Probably snap off the river shove. Looks valuey, but can't fold KK @ 4NL here
  • edited May 2012
    hes either going nuts with a missed flush or he has a 9. i sigh fold.
  • edited May 2012
    pre & flop nice.  Likely go bigger on turn.

    Feels like your always beat on the river tbh with reads.. 

    Ad2d or FH ftw :p
  • edited May 2012
    I'd bet flop turn bigger at NL4.

    River is kind of strange, if 9 didn't pair I'd call but this just looks so much like trips going for max scared that you will just check behind, sigh fold for me. 
  • edited May 2012
    Probably has 6 7
  • edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: KK facing 125bb river shove on raggy paired board:
    Probably has 6 7
    Posted by murray69
    I'll consider that a vote for folding.
  • edited May 2012
    Im more interested into how dickshaft got away with that username??!! :)
  • edited May 2012
    Think I fold in this, but only because of the level. Yes, some of the fish do shove with top pair, but generally a shove at this level is done by someone with a strong hand expecting someone with a weaker hand will call anyway. Yes, KK maybe good, but there is enough out there that beats you and short of a shove with a bust flush draw I struggle to see what else he would be holding to shove other than a strong hand. If it was a PP he had he would likely be concerned a bit you had a 9 himself, so seems unlikely he shoves if he holds that type of hand. So think in this one spot I fold even if I nash my teeth as I do it.
  • edited May 2012
    I think this is really close, without reads Ild give some weight to the fact that he has doubled his buyin so far.

    In favour of a call:

    from villain's perspective your flop and turn bets look a little weak, there's the possibility of a missed flush draw - both increasing likelihood of bluff

    In favour of fold:

    villain most likely would play 67 or a 9 this way. A desperation bluff here is often half to full pot size

    I'ld lean towards folding, dont know if i could fold in game though
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