You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.
You might need to refresh your page afterwards.
Sky Poker forums will be temporarily unavailable from 11pm Wednesday July 25th.
Sky Poker Forums is upgrading its look! Stay tuned for the big reveal!
NL10 - Implied hand
Figure oppo is limp/raising big hand so should get paid
Failing that oppo could be playing back at me, so I have position if I need it
Does it look ok through the streets - result doesn't matter, suffice to say I am going for the whole stack
Failing that oppo could be playing back at me, so I have position if I need it
Does it look ok through the streets - result doesn't matter, suffice to say I am going for the whole stack
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| elpapagal | Small blind | £0.05 | £0.05 | £5.92 | |
| HulkBanana | Big blind | £0.10 | £0.15 | £6.44 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| EssexD | Call | £0.10 | £0.25 | £15.31 | |
| rancid | Raise | £0.40 | £0.65 | £27.48 | |
| Thierrizle | Fold | ||||
| SLEDGIE | Fold | ||||
| elpapagal | Fold | ||||
| HulkBanana | Fold | ||||
| EssexD | Raise | £0.90 | £1.55 | £14.41 | |
| rancid | Call | £0.60 | £2.15 | £26.88 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| EssexD | Bet | £1.00 | £3.15 | £13.41 | |
| rancid | Call | £1.00 | £4.15 | £25.88 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| EssexD | Bet | £2.00 | £6.15 | £11.41 | |
| rancid | Call | £2.00 | £8.15 | £23.88 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| EssexD | Bet | £4.00 | £12.15 | £7.41 | |
| rancid | |||||
Comments
really flop is fold instant you call and again call turn so what was your end game what were you going to do if the river came blank?
my advice dont do this again unless you have a trigger your going to pull or know you opponent very well
Normally results don't matter, but this result does in that it may lead you to think this is a good play. Its not unless you are floating with a specfic plan to do something like a bluff etc, and that might well be difficult if he has AA or similar at this level as he will not likely give credit to a reraise anywhere and just be thinking he has top pair if he does have AA, and for certain not if its KK.
Did you have a plan for the hand preflop when you called his reraise? I like to have one, and while it may change sometimes I do like to have some idea what I'm going to do with the hand post flop.
Wondered what the thinking is here with regards to calling down IP with IO - Turn for example it makes no sense for me to raise now - weakness + blank on river then i may have to pull a bullet out but.... mmmmmmmm
really not sure, hence the post
edit: looked at this again and I have calculated how much I would need to win to make this profitbale/break even
Am I way off the mark or does this look ok ?
flop = £7.80
turn = £1
Fact is you just plain should never chase a gutshot only, if that is all you are doing. Hell, I'll lead out with a gutshot sometimes, and even reraise with one if I think they might have missed, but both those plays are more hoping to take the pot down and have outs if I fail to, and hopefully slow them right down if they call.
So all in all you are only making either your straight of flush here 1 in 5 times, and in most cases it would likely cost you more than this one hand in a bottle did, so all in all its BAD.. don't do it.
flop = 3/1 - turn = 2/1 direct odds
chance of hitting draw - flop = 11/1 - turn = 4/1
we can work out how much we need to win to make the call profitbale
flop = £7.80
turn =£4
If I think I can win this amount if I hit my draw on each street to break even, then this is ok ya ?
If it's very plausible i can get more than this, say the whole £14ish - then calling can be profitbale !
is this flying over peoples heads or am I just crazy bad !
The turn call of course is fine once you get there as you are getting the right price to make the call, but the call on the flop mathematically is poor at best. You'll never find any pro or book suggesting you chase that gutshot, and chasing runner runner is worse.
Just because you have not got the correct direct odds, it doesn't mean you should fold if you beleive you can hit hidden draws and get PAID IN FULL where the implied odds when calculated make sense
If I hit my draw on turn I am certain i can get at least £7.80 from oppo, so in my book - it's ok baby
If I am wrong then everyone can call me a station and abuse me on here, but no one is because I am RIGHT !
Only bluffing blank turn :S
I just don't think I am totally wrong on this one, but I am obviously keen to be proven wrong !
In game I was like mmmmmm think this is ok, after I am like - really was it so bad !
If you get time later have a work through the calcualtions and give me some feedback, would be appriecieted - thanks
You can't look at this hand the way you are that you only have to make back the money or more you spend on this one hand. but on many hands where you make the exactly the same choice. Over the long run you will lose money because the odds will run against you over time.
But I am looking at the situation, effective stack and a very strong possiblity that oppos going to ship everything to me
I would not advocate calling a gutshot with the price given because like you say if you keep on doing this then it's just giving away money )
I could be very wrong, but I don't think I am -_-
So the princible is this, if you carry on making calls with 11:1 odds and pot odds of 3:1 you will lose money hand over fist in the long run, and this is not a theory. By all means do as you wish as its your money to play with, but it would be quicker if you just took the money out of your wallet and took a lighter to it.
I thought I would come here to feel better but sadly no one can fix me-_-
I thought we come here to discuss poker hands and explore other avenues
I do appreiciate you comments but it's a bit tedious telling me that I shouldn't be doing this everytime I have a GS )
I do know that -_-
if the effective stack was £100 do I call on the flop )
As for effective stack sizes. Not overly relevant. Yes, to a degree it is, but its more about what can you win? The question becomes can you win at least £12 on the time you hit your gutshot on the turn? if the answer is 100% yes you will always get £12 then its a fine call to make. Problem is will you? The answer is generally no, as while sometimes they may stack off or pay at least that, on many occasions they just won't because their hand is not strong enough when you put more heat on them.
To put that into form on this hand. Lets say you call that £1 and on the tunr you hit your straight. Villian bets £2 and you know that to get your money you will need to raise here or the river. So you have to decide if he will bet the river if you call here. So you raise, villian dwells and folds. So you fail to get money you needed to make calling this flop bet over the long run. And this is what is CERTAIN to happen. Yes, sometimes you'll get it all, but over thousands of hands, you won't get it all every time.
Anyway, like said do as you wish, much like anything how you play a game is down to you. I'm just explaining why its not the best option as a long term profitable poker play.
EDIT: yes lolraise I do fully understand implied odds, but over thousands of hands the chance they have a set here everytime we hit and won't fold is tiny, and the amount of times we get paid off enough is not often enough as i said. I don't mind a call here with some other plan, but solely on a gutshot isn't likely to work as long term winning play even in deepstack, and definely not if playing 100bb stacks.
I made it £7.80 using another method
Subtract your pot odds from the odds of hitting your draw to work out your required implied odds.
Then multiply the result by amount you need to call