nl25 turning hand into bluff

percival09

Villain plays 23/20/9 WTSD% 25
flop cbet 75% turn cbet 43% river cbet 72%
2.6K hands
I play at 21/18 and villain probz knows I'm capable of making a move but knows I don't get out of line too much - there's always metagame between us when we're on same tables
I decide to flat pre mainly because there's a fish in the blinds but he folds :-(

just wondering what people think of my line

SB: $25 (100 bb)
BB: $26.12 (104.5 bb)
MP: $88.05 (352.2 bb)
BTN: $27.79 (111.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T T
MP raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.85) Qs 6c 9s (2 players)
MP bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.35) 8s (2 players)
MP bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75

River: ($9.85) 8c (2 players)
MP bets $6.25, Hero raises to $20.25 and is all-in, MP folds

grantorino

Flat pre 

Don't mind river, but idk if he triple barrell folds many value hands, so flat may be better. Depends what he does with stuff like Kk

KAM99

Yeah, i actually think its a pretty awesome board to bluff the river. I mean its staggeringly difficult to call that board even with top two pair with a flush, fullhouse and even potential straight out there if he thinks you'd call with one gapper, most of which completed on the river. I mean this would be a massive hero call on his part with two pair or less, and even then would be dubious, as how often will it be a bluff?

Personally I quite like it even if the guy has triple barrelled. Think unless he has the hands you representing its no easy call for him to make. Only downside might be his stack and fact it might make him feel kind of bullet proof if he is having an awesome session.

EDIT: And of course i'd ONLY do this against a villian i KNEW was thinkng about what I might have, and have the ability to lay down things like two pair, or TPTK or KK+ here.

LOL_RAISE

what do we rep apart from 89

percival09

I know, altho the board is great I'm not repping anything - maybe a fd though but I wouldn't shove that right? mmm

EDIT: I think the flush is pretty well repped looking again, I'm flatting the turn sometimes with a flush - I'm pretty sure he hasn't got a housebecause he'd bet more on the turn.. he value bets pretty thin so I think I make a lot fold

percival09

AJss A10ss QTss KTss etc

KAM99

In Response to Re: nl25 turning hand into bluff:

what do we rep apart from 89
Posted by LOL_RAISE

89, 66, QQ, 99, 88 or any flush. Sure the flush is less likely a good player shoves into a paired board, but a shove into a paired 3 flush board, how often are they going to be bluffing you after calling two strreets? I know if I'm holding AQ, KK, AA I wouldn't be liking to suddenly be facing a shove, would you? Not saying I'd fold to it 100%, but still its pretty strong move.

Have a feeling I saw this same sort of move on the big game in similar circumstances that got through cus he couldn't see him making the play with anything other than fullhouse.

percival09

I agree it's a tough board to call on, but in all honesty I'm not repping much

I'd raise all sets on the flop

I'd sometimes raise a fd/straight draw and sometimes call

I'd flat call tp

I wouldn't call pre flop with 89

The flush is the only thing I'm repping; I'd definitely flat call the turn sometimes with a flush - and then shoving on a paired board is definitely thin value but I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a house

I suppose 88 is possible as I might not raise the turn all of the time but probz would

TommyD

You know this guy more than i do but are you sure you needed to bluff here?  Maybe this guy does make tough and tight folds (such as top pair, good kicker etc) but you're offering $14 to win $36 approx.  Plus he's the big winner in the game here, they are always more likely to call unless you have direct history that they lock up with a profit.

Also out of interest did you have the Ts?

EDIT - Also how often are you 3betting pre?  We may be pretty under repped here.

percival09

I know he bets thin but no way is he value betting with less than a Q here - I'd say QK is at the bottom of his range

I'd sometimes raise pre and sometimes not - depending on the dynamics, the opponent etc... here I chose to flat because there was a fish in late position who I wanted in the pot

I did have the 10s yes, which might have factored into my decision when shoving

I guess this was just an unprofitable experiment vs a good loose aggressive reg on a v.scary board for whatever he may be holding 

TommyD

In Response to Re: nl25 turning hand into bluff:

I know he bets thin but no way is he value betting with less than a Q here - I'd say QK is at the bottom of his range I'd sometimes raise pre and sometimes not - depending on the dynamics, the opponent etc... here I chose to flat because there was a fish in late position who I wanted in the pot I did have the 10s yes, which might have factored into my decision when shoving I guess this was just an unprofitable experiment vs a good loose aggressive reg on a v.scary board for whatever he may be holding 
Posted by percival09

So is he defo value betting?  I think he's pretty polarized between barrelling an airball and having a hand he is not folding for those odds.  My point is I think your hand has enough showdown to call rather than turn into a bluff.  Of course if he'll fold much bigger hands than KQ here then swing away.

percival09

I agree - if villain is a good thinking player he would call with most of his value betting range here

luckily my bad play paid off!