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odds of set over set

sikassikas
edited November 2009 in Poker Chat
last couple of days variance has been kickin my b utt, losin to some horrendous outdraws etc, but also ive lost set over set about 6-7 times in the last 2-3 days for some sizeable pots, so does any1 know what the odds of some1 else having a set when uve flopped one yourself?
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  • GREGHOGGGREGHOGG
    edited November 2009
    In Response to odds of set over set:
    last couple of days variance has been kickin my b utt, losin to some horrendous outdraws etc, but also ive lost set over set about 6-7 times in the last 2-3 days for some sizeable pots, so does any1 know what the odds of some1 else having a set when uve flopped one yourself?
    Posted by sikas
    Merenovice will be along shortly to explain, that i have no doubt
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited November 2009
    The odds of them hitting a set were precisely the same as the odds of you hitting a set. Seemples!
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  • scrumdownscrumdown
    edited November 2009
    say  about   7 to1
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited November 2009
    Does it even matter? If you flop a set you're never laying it down without some kind of advanced read. It will happen for and against you the same amount of times in the long run. It's just a cooler. Reload and play the same game.
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  • Loki-RogyLoki-Rogy
    edited November 2009

    Let's do it the simple way.

    Assume heads-up, assume you both have PP

    Odds of you flopping a set = 11.9% (Assume 48 unknown cards, assume set, not quads/boat)
    http://www.ohrt.com/odds/index.php
    48 total cards, 3 drawn, 2 outs, 1 needed.
    Pretty standard poker knowledge...

    Then looking from the other player's point of view, one card on the flop has to match your pp, so there are 47 unknown cards, 2 more cards to come on the flop, 2 outs, 1 needed.
    This has an 8.3% chance of happening

    So when you flop a set, assuming you know for certain the other person has a pp, they are 8.3% (11-1 to hit a set too)

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  • sikassikas
    edited November 2009
    oh dear.... is this a level?

    anyway....

    firstly if i flop a set im not gonna lay it down (unless i have some soul read, and im not that good), if some1 else has a bigger one, its just bad luck i know

    second, i know the odds of some1 else making a set one are the same as mine duh! lol   (mayb elsadog just takin the pi** here)

    maybe a i didnt phrase the question properly... what are the odds of 2 ppl flopping sets on the same flop, its not something that will affect my post-flop play at all, i just wondered if some1 knew....anyway i found the answer


    "ASSUME: you hold 10-10 and your opponent holds Q-Q.
    (We make no assumptions regarding the distribution of other cards to other
    players at the table.)

    This leave 48 cards unaccounted for. Therefore, based on our assumption,
    there are C(48,3)=17296 equally likely flops possible. (Note: C(n,k) = the
    number of possible combinations of k cards from n cards. The formula is
    n!/(k!(n-k)!).)

    In order for both players to flop sets, the flop must include one of the
    two remaining queens, one of the two remaining tens, and one of the other
    44 cards in the deck. The number of ways such a flop can occur is
    2*2*44=176.

    Therefore, the probability of set-over-set occurring, given our initial
    assumption, 176 in 17296. This is about 1.02%, or roughly one in 98."



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  • TalonTalon
    edited November 2009
      To do this calculation we first need 1 more piece of information. How many people were sat down at the table?

      It is 15:1 to have a pocket pair.
      So it is the same for your opponents divided by the number of opponents.
      Then we need to know what your pair you have so we can adjust the odds of them having a higher pocket pair.
      To hit a set on the flop is about7.5:1
       This is the same for your opponent as well but we have to allow for the 1 card removed for your set so it is only 2 out of 3.
     With all of the relevant data i could work it out but as a rough guess on a six handed table  and assuming you have  a middle pocket pair it is over 300:1
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  • namesb0ndnamesb0nd
    edited November 2009
    once i had set over set over set!Sent it into "the club" and they acted like they hadnt seen anything like it before
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  • SirFrankSirFrank
    edited November 2009
    Sorry chat ...but i looked up who wrote this softwhare... apparently it was...

    BUZZ LIGHTYEAR   ... lol
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  • Hogg321Hogg321
    edited November 2009
    hard to say on the odds of set over set, it depends what pocket pair you hold and your opponents

    say its about in the middle pocket 8's, and you're first to act 6 handed. the chances of someone else having a pocket pair are 15/5 (1 in 3) and the chances of them having a higher pocket pair than you is 1 in 6  probably something around 75-1 you both hit a set i think it'd be something between 300-1 and 500-1
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