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Fold top pair on river?
A - readless
Your hole cardsAJ ARaise £1.20£1.65£59.34BCall £1.20£2.85£85.28KKripplerCall £1.20£4.05£67.96ronnieg197Fold ricoramb03Fold Flop 5J2 ACheck BBet £3.00£7.05£82.28KKripplerCall £3.00£10.05£64.96ACall £3.00£13.05£56.34Turn 10 ACheck BBet £9.00£22.05£73.28KKripplerCall £9.00£31.05£55.96ACall £9.00£40.05£47.34River 2 ACheck BBet £22.80£62.85£50.48KKripplerFold goochmanFold
B - Reg, tight, played alot last few days, have yet to see huge bluffs, ABC player.
Your hole cardsAJ ARaise £1.20£1.65£59.34BCall £1.20£2.85£85.28KKripplerCall £1.20£4.05£67.96ronnieg197Fold ricoramb03Fold Flop 5J2 ACheck BBet £3.00£7.05£82.28KKripplerCall £3.00£10.05£64.96ACall £3.00£13.05£56.34Turn 10 ACheck BBet £9.00£22.05£73.28KKripplerCall £9.00£31.05£55.96ACall £9.00£40.05£47.34River 2 ACheck BBet £22.80£62.85£50.48KKripplerFold goochmanFold
Comments
It really does depend on your reads on Player B. Is he the type of player that's can triple-barrell on a dry board with two other players in the hand. He almost certainly has something, since he has done this into two players. I wouldn't know but if I call on the turn I need to call the river.
There are some hands we can simply rule out. He only called pre-flop which is likely to rule out all over pairs. We have one of the Jacks which makes JJ unlikely and the normal play with JJ would be to 3-bet anyway. There will be some sets of 5's or 2's in his range having played this way and they have to be given consideration as does JT. However on such a dry board with top-pair, top kicker I'm probably calling him down here. KJ, QJ J9, etc only need to make up just over a quarter of his range to make this break-even. I wouldn't completely rule out a bluff with air or some sort of underpair either, though these bluffs aren't massively likely.
Read dependent. Is he capable of triple-barrelling with less than AJ here? If he's super-tight then you should fold the turn.
For me that makes the bluffs more likely and makes it more of a call on the river. The reason I say that I think the decision is on the turn is that, against a good player, I would expect the bet on the river as well. I don't think it's too likely that a reasonable player bets the flop, bets the turn, then checks the river, so I wouldn't necessarily perceive that river bet as being super-strong. People usually bet on only one street or on all three. If I think I'm ahead on the turn, I can't fold this blank river.
I just want to redress something I said. He doesn't need to be super-tight for you to fold the turn, as I said. If he's only fairly tight then it's fine. Alot of tightish players who fire at this flop will go into check-fold mode when called with KJ, QJ, so when these type of players bet you can fold. I'm not saying it's always a fold against them but sometimes it will be. Again, it's very read dependent.
I stick by not folding the river though, after calling the turn.
My honest opinion here is that he has put you on a jack with a good kicker and has sized his bet on the river for what he thinks he will get you to call with a jack, and it looks super value town sized, and might have expected more for a buff, unless its a level game (he thought so I thought etc). Tough to laydown but have a feeling this river bet screams value. I know some are saying if you call turn you call river, but I might call turn with someone that may well barrel two streets with KJ, QJ etc, and while the theory is that if you call turn you call river if its blank I don't think we can to often here unless we know player B has a 3 barrel air ball bluff in his locker.
not sure I like flatting btn to then call two streets with TPTK and then fold river
oppo range is hardly narrow so could turn over a fair range of hands you beat
oppo probably turns over house and you sigh :S
i think the leak from our pov is on the turn, i would lean more strongly to a fold given the action.. this is because even player A's over calling range beats us. for him to overcall in this spot i think he has jj-AA. he's pot controllig and is wawb. he doesnt want to lead into two players oop. player B must no this also and cant put two players on draws and just keep barrelling seemily bad cards to barrell as a bluff...
i fold the turn defo
Why can you not change your mind ?
Alot of players would bet turn here with a big J then check call river once they get called behind to control pot imo so to call turn and fold to a river bet isnt bad at all the way i see it mate.
But the old " if you call turn you have to call river " thing is wrong imo.
The issue is that when you're making the call on the turn, you should anticipate his bet on the river. If he has a value hand then he will continue to bet on the river after you call. If he's bluffing and he's fired on two streets, there's every chance that he will continue on the river.
If you call the turn, hoping that he won't bet on the river then you're doing just that; hoping. You're not acting on the basis of a plan. We don't want to play poker hoping that our opponent's will be accomodating to us because that's not what they want to do.
On this hand, since nothing changes on the river, you've either made a mistake by calling the turn or you're making a mistake by folding on the river. You're allowed to change your mind, of course. If you get to the river and think "woops, I made a mistake calling on the turn", then you'd be silly to follow that by making another mistake by calling on the river if you think you're behind. The key is to admit that you made the mistake on the turn, and then not make the same mistake the next time you're in a similar situation.
So next time you're in a hand like this and someone bets the turn ask yourself: "Can I stand another bet on a blank river?" If the answer is no, then you should fold the turn. Hoping that he won't bet the river is going to be -ev against any decent player.
The simple fact is that most of the time when someone bets the flop and turn, there's a good chance - more than 50% - that they will bet on the river. If you're constantly calling them down intending to fold to a river bet, you'll make yourself pretty exploitable.
People say triple-barreling is hard and it is hard with air. It's not hard to bet the flop on a draw, bet the turn on a draw and then bet the river having missed the draw, hoping that a) your opponents have also missed their draw or b) your opponent's will lay down their hand because you've shown strength on three streets and all they can beat is a missed draw.
I'm not saying I would definitely call it down here, but I would know what I was going to do on a blank river when making my mind up on the turn. If I can't stand a bet on the river I'd fold the turn.
The term "Old school" has become something of an insult these days. The thing is that a winning old school player is still a winning player. Even if I was an old school player, I'd be better than a "new school" losing player.
This point of not hoping for your opponents to be accomodating is neither old nor new school. It's just good poker. Poker is of course situational but if you keep calling bets, just hoping your opponent will slow down, you'll be losing money in these situations. You'll be very exploitable.
Problem with this thinking imo mate is that AJ would be ahead of alot of hands that most players fire 2 bullets with but not ahead of many that players fire 3 bullets with.
IMO calling the turn is ok because like i say in above post alot of players holding strong Js will fire 2 bullets then check call river for pot control letting you get to showdown for no extra investment and very few will fire 3 bullets in this situation with hands weaker than AJ so the only way you actually find this out is by calling the turn and this is the point when the strength of their hand becomes more clear imo.
All a game of opinions ofc but this is mine
Fully agree with this mate.
You worded it alot better than i did
You've got to go with what will be right the higher percentage of the time.
The fact he's betting into two players on both the flop and turn should make it even more likely that you should expect a bet on the river.
We all have our own thoughts on it mate and i respect yours.
Like i say its only my opinion on things.
Were all just trying to learn and debates like this are the way to do it.
GN mate
You're right about these debates being good to help us learn. I have pretty strong opinions on most things but the clinic is a big help in getting me to question those opinions: Reaffirming my good thoughts and habits and helping get me out of bad habits.
The point I'm making is pretty much for this hand or similar situations. If you know that you can't call a river bet, even if it blanks out, and you think it's more likely than not that you will face a bet on the river after he's bet flop and turn, then it's not a profitable call on the turn. I'm sure we both agree on that.
The only source of disagreement seems to be whether we will face a river bet more often than not in this situation. My thoughts are simply that you can't expect him to bet as either a bluff or a value play on the flop and turn, then not bet on the river. More often than not, I think, he will carry on with both his bluffs and value hands. Even if that only happens 55% of the time, it's demonstrably -ev to call the turn intending to fold the river.