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Live Game - Decision On The River

Lambert180Lambert180
edited June 2012 in The Poker Clinic
Hi all,

Gonna post up as accurate a HH as I can from a pub game I play in where the result annoyed me a bit. I won't post the result to get more unbiased responses, but I'll post up what happened after I get some answers. I can't remember the exact suits of particular cards but it was a rainbow board that had no FD on flop or turn.

We're 3 handed, blinds are 25/50, here's the table layout

Button (me) - 4k
SB                 - 4k
BB                 - 5.5k

So I raise to 150 on the button with A6off.

SB folds, and BB flat calls. Pot is now 325

Flop comes QJA. He checks to me and I bet 250, knowing he's calling wide pre and I get value from most if not all of his Qxs and Jxs, and protect my hand/charge him to outdraw me. He flat calls. Pot is now 825

Turn comes a 6. He checks again and I bet again, 400 this time (looking back, should definitely have bet more, think I lost track of pot size), he flat calls again. Pot is now 1625

River comes another Q and he now decides to lead into me for 1000 I believe.

What do you do?
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Comments

  • rancidrancid
    edited June 2012
    fold w/e sigh wp
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  • KAM99KAM99
    edited June 2012
    Have to say it looks like a fold on the river. To be honest with him leading the river he either has a missed draw and is bluffing or he has you beat with a queen, a better two pair or the straight. I can't see him leading out with much worse very often in this spot on a board like this. Very unlikely he leads out with an ace only as he can only really be called or raised by better in most cases and should know this.

    So for me with 2 calls and then a lead out for what appears to be value, then he has to have you beat in most cases unless he is just horrible player, and thats down to if you have any reads off him yet. Think I'd be surpised if someone is bluffing here more than 10% of the time, or has worse than you.

    Maybe others disagree, but think your not beating a whole lot if he does have a hand other than a bluff or AK or similar.
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  • EvilPinguEvilPingu
    edited June 2012
    Fold. Either you were beat already, or gone behind to trip queens IMO.
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  • WilhelmWilhelm
    edited June 2012
    In Response to Re: Live Game - Decision On The River:
    Fold. Either you were beat already, or gone behind to trip queens IMO.
    Posted by EvilPingu
    Obviously player dependent but I know a lot of pub players that could do this with any Ace, but as we're only splitting with those (apart from AK), +1 for the fold.
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited June 2012
    Ok, well I know it's being a bit results orientated but here's the result.

    I did let it go, and thought it was the only option really. As people have said, I'm splitting with every ace except AK, and losing to Qx hands.

    He turned over K8off (complete air), I can only assume he was calling for the GS on flop and turn, then he said to me after I folded that he knew I'd hate that 2nd Q on the river and was a good card to bluff.

    Just frustrated me, I felt initially like my hand had been counterfeited on the river, but then with a seconds thought I realised there is only one Ax hand that just went ahead of me (AK), obviously AQ was always ahead, and AJ has just went from winning to splitting.

    He said he was shocked I folded it (which is funny cos why bluff then :p) but I just couldn't see a hand I was beating, apart from a complete bluff like K8 lol. It just annoyed me a bit that he bluffed me off it, but I guess without knowing him well, there's nothing else I could do.
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  • AMYBRAMYBR
    edited June 2012
    how are you 3 handed @ 25/50??

    Think you know its totally player dependant.  Bluffcatching, chopping or crushed.  Chopping I suspect though as played.  Just depends on villain but I can find plenty of reasons to call/fold vs particular reads.

    Reasons/thought process for betrting flop/turn obv fine.  Just going to be judgment call on river.

    EDIT Fwiw, only just saw you posted result, will go n read :p
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  • AMYBRAMYBR
    edited June 2012
    Yeah if oppo is bad can turn up their alot with stuff like that.  Tbh hand is so villain dependant and situational its very hard to ask for/receive advice on.  Its just going to be instinct rather than an EV mentality imo.

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  • BorinLonerBorinLoner
    edited June 2012
    I'd actually say that the second Queen makes this more of a call. It's totally player dependent of course, but assuming it's against a fairly average player I don't see many Queens in his range by the river. Is a one-pair Queen going to call you down on the flop and turn on an Ace-high board? Most players won't. I'd make KQ and QT less likely because of that, despite the gut-shot draw. Two-pair Queens like AQ and QJ are likely to raise before the river on an Ace high board. The same would be true of flopped sets or KT: They'd expect to get value and would protect against scare cards like the Ace, King, Ten or Six.

    So most of the time I'd think it unlikely that my opponent's holding a Queen. That means that now we're only fearful of AK.

    I've had fifteen mintes to think about it and the more I look at it the more I think it's a call. I think saying he bluffs 10% of the time here is a fairly arbitrary number. It's player dependent, of course, but I actually think there's plenty of scope for alot of players to bluff this river. In a vacuum I'd assume that I wasn't up against a Queen... but I don't know if I could actually find the call. Without knowing that my opponent understood the game, I couldn't assume that he would lay down a hand like second pair and a gut-shot to two streets of aggression.

    I don't blame you for folding in that situation. If you feel you have an edge on the table, it's probably right to pass this hand. In a vacuum I'd say the call's right, though.
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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited June 2012
    should of bet more on the turn like u said 650 maybe but is a fold for me what are u beating your 2 pair has been counter fitted and guy aint betting jack here call n hope for a split but its a fold
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  • BorinLonerBorinLoner
    edited June 2012
    In Response to Re: Live Game - Decision On The River:
    should of bet more on the turn like u said 650 maybe but is a fold for me what are u beating your 2 pair has been counter fitted and guy aint betting jack here call n hope for a split but its a fold
    Posted by IDONKCALLU
    It totally depends on the level of the player. The fact that this is a pub game isn't promising but if he's decent then he ought to never have a Queen or better. That means that, if we assume that the majority of the time it's a chop, then we just have to decide if he's going to be bluffing more or less often than he's going to be holding AK... No 3-bet pre-flop should mean that he doesn't have AK too often, so I think it's a call on the river.

    I say I don't mind the fold because it's a pub game. They're not famed for the standard of play in the first place, then you add some alcohol and a Queen suddenly looks possible again. Read dependent.
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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited June 2012
    Check flop

    I'd fold river in pub game
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