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The math of spewing
Sorry mate, I really tried.
I lost it somewhere after O.K.!
I think I get the idea, but will try and have a proper read when I have the house to myself.
I tend not to bluff too often, and only if I sense real fear from my opponent over the texture of the board. Perhaps I need to bluff a little more to get my ROI up a little as my account has stalled somewhat in the last 2 weeks.
But I suppose everyone has these sort of weeks every now and then.
I lost it somewhere after O.K.!
I think I get the idea, but will try and have a proper read when I have the house to myself.
I tend not to bluff too often, and only if I sense real fear from my opponent over the texture of the board. Perhaps I need to bluff a little more to get my ROI up a little as my account has stalled somewhat in the last 2 weeks.
But I suppose everyone has these sort of weeks every now and then.
Comments
OK, so you claculate bluffing equity via the following equasion.
(pot before bluff)*(% Fold)-(Amount risked)*(1-%fold)
Do give a backdrop to demonstrate this, I'm going to take a pretty standard bluff raise spot from a $30 HU SnG I played today.
PokerStars Game #35423352083: Tournament #213047541, $30.00+$1.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2009/11/16 8:55:21 WET [2009/11/16 3:55:21 ET]
Table '213047541 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: 2Wisdomy (1320 in chips)
Seat 2: Smiley9999 (1680 in chips)
2Wisdomy: posts small blind 10
Smiley9999: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 2Wisdomy [Qc 4h]
2Wisdomy: raises 40 to 60
Smiley9999: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [7s Ts 2h]
Smiley9999: checks
2Wisdomy: bets 80
Smiley9999: calls 80
*** TURN *** [7s Ts 2h] [8h]
Smiley9999: checks
2Wisdomy: checks
*** RIVER *** [7s Ts 2h 8h] [6c]
Smiley9999: bets 160
2Wisdomy: raises 240 to 400
Smiley9999: folds
So
If we put every flush draw that he defends with in his river range, as well as 2p & 1p hands that he bets as a blocker and some set hands that he bet/folds for value.
so like As8s-As2s, Ks9s-K2s, Qs9s-Qs5s, Js9s-Js5s, 9s6s, 8s6s & 8s5s and like 6s5s, 5s4s, 22, All T7, T8, 87 combo's, and like T9, 97, J9, 98, maybe 96.
So 100% of his range is 111 hands, and he folds 66 of them.
So to convert fractions to percentage we divide the top of the fraction by the bottom and multiply by 100.
66/111 x 100 = 59.4% fold
So
(440)*(.594)-(400)*(.406) =
261.36 - 162.4 =
t99 chips (rounded).
This means that we make 99 chips in equity every time we make this play.
You obviously dont have to calc ENTIRE ranges every time you calculate, BUT, you can mess around with the amount risked to see how often you have to get villain to fold to make raises profitable.
In this spot, If I had been like "Blah he can't call w/o a nine and his range is wide so i'll raise big, get him to fold", then, I might have seriously affected my equity, without affecting his % Fold
Lets say I had raised to 750
(440)*(.594)-(750)*(.406) =
261.36 - 304.5 =
-t43 chips (rounded).
So now we see how important sizing is when making even the most standard bluff raises.
Hope you all learned a little something and are not now bored to the point that you have begun to weep gently.
Bon' Chance
It would probably be worth learning how to use it.
But using the example above, many good players would 'feel' that the raise to 400 was about right as a bluff. The min raise would get called too often, the 750 raise would cost too much when it got called, the 400 just 'feels right'.
It's 10,000 hard hours of experience which has shown them that 400 tends to work best in that situation. A brief understanding of the mathematics can save you a lot of time!
Too little gets called, too much can be seen as a blatant bluff, which can get through more often than not, but when it's called will cost you the tournament you are in.
Also, if you place the size of the bluff the same as what you would expect to bet should you have hit the hand, it is one of the best disguises.
In summary:
1. The subtle differences in betsizing can make big differences in the long term.
2. Bet too small and your opponent wont budge as he's priced in and he calls your air too often;
3. Bet too large and you will lose too many chips on the times that you get called compared to the times your villain folds.
Here we have 15 sec clock and when mulit-tabling it is near impossible to make these kind of decisions. Although the more you play with someone the more in-tune you get to their ranges so it does help.
But yeah try it out on another site guys, theres some really good 180 man SnGs on the 2 'big' sites that are a very good place to learn.
I take it that HU is your format of choice?
I can't even beat the micros. I am sure I can, I probably need to invest in some coaching or get some proper sweat sessions going though to assist me in laying down hands where I am beat alot but refuse to believe the villain. Took some shots at NL10 recently, ran $260 below my EV, blew my entire bankroll practically. Got a really pretty graph somewhere.
Why am i ranting. No1 cares. St*u matt. To answer your question, I play micros online and live I play in £10 freezeouts, or whatever me/my friends feel like. Got a very friendly poker club quite nearby so its always a fun and relatively cheap night out.
I will keep hammering, as long as I'm using some decent BRM i'm never spending out of my means so volume's not much of an issue. One thing I do find difficult to gauge is that SkyPoker micros are a *ridiculously* low standard, thus I find its actually harder to isolate people with big hands than any other site, and placing people on hands is even harder. I know I can demolish 90% of the players at the SkyNL4, I just need a bit of variance to hit me with an upswing.
If either of you (scotty/LF) have ventrilo, I would love to have a session spectating your play and hearing your lines as you make them.
Keep up the good work LF... and keep crushing those master cash tables scotty!
Also if you'd like I would be willing to stake you @ 10NL for like 20 buy-in's on a site /w good rakeback like cake, if you'd be interested.
Btw; my NL4 graph from Cake before i spewed my BR there to ~ $40
http://www.msoutham.plus.com/poker/10knl4.jpg
also the best thing about cake is you can change your alias!!
Used to play the $24 turbo SnG's.
Used to like it but then it took me an effing age to make a withdrawal from it. Donked off a fair whack of my profits before I eventually got clearance to take my monies.