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What is the right move
wa down to the last 6 in a tourney big difference between 6-5 place pay-out. blinds are 20k - 40k
I raise utg 100k with A-10 my stack after raise is about 400k folds too the big blind who calls his stack about 800k. been on his table for a while bluffs alot saw him make alot of move's tricky player. the fop is 732 all hearts i have no heart and bb checks to me now the pot is 220k i have i nearly timed out just being checked too my thinking is if i continuation bet this guy is not folding on this board i know he liked to float alot and just from playing with him im 80% sure he is not going to give up on this pot on that board. sounds stupid but i'm in possision i feel i should have the best hand but i could not work out what too do if i bet i think he will shove. he might call and bet on the turn. basicly im confident if i bet out he is going to shove on me or float and bet out on the turn what ever come's. My first way out was too insta shove and take it down there and then but i didn't want to gift him if he had a hand. But after thinking this what i choose to do i was confident if i checked he will bet out on the turn giving me then control to shove over the top. the turn came a 6 he called the shove and actually had the same hand and made the flush on the river. But i'am intrested in what people would have done in this situation
To explain more my big problem in this hand i dont/cant be bet folding cuz of my stack size. even after the hand i'm still not 100% what the best move was here look foward for what other's would have done
I raise utg 100k with A-10 my stack after raise is about 400k folds too the big blind who calls his stack about 800k. been on his table for a while bluffs alot saw him make alot of move's tricky player. the fop is 732 all hearts i have no heart and bb checks to me now the pot is 220k i have i nearly timed out just being checked too my thinking is if i continuation bet this guy is not folding on this board i know he liked to float alot and just from playing with him im 80% sure he is not going to give up on this pot on that board. sounds stupid but i'm in possision i feel i should have the best hand but i could not work out what too do if i bet i think he will shove. he might call and bet on the turn. basicly im confident if i bet out he is going to shove on me or float and bet out on the turn what ever come's. My first way out was too insta shove and take it down there and then but i didn't want to gift him if he had a hand. But after thinking this what i choose to do i was confident if i checked he will bet out on the turn giving me then control to shove over the top. the turn came a 6 he called the shove and actually had the same hand and made the flush on the river. But i'am intrested in what people would have done in this situation
To explain more my big problem in this hand i dont/cant be bet folding cuz of my stack size. even after the hand i'm still not 100% what the best move was here look foward for what other's would have done
Comments
What would you do if someone shoves over your 2.5x raise?
Personally UTG I would have folded pre especially with the info you have on the Big Blind player
Agree with freechips, if you don't like the fold pre option then it's a shove pre
Dave
You cant put 20% of your stack in then fold with 12bb.
pot is 660k you have to call 400k to win 660k.
Vs villans shoving range we are better than 40% so we have to call.
Its better to shove pre as we will make people fold lots of hands that will 3bet shove on us, 22-99 being a few of them.
As i said fold or shove pre, make it easy for yourself.
But like i said i'am at BEST racing calling or being called on a shove. I dont need to gamble i play poker i actually only was allin once in this 10 hour tourney
The game had been played so tight getting to this stage this is why the blinds are so high and so many people left in the game it's nearly a super turbo game at the min and alot of luck was now comming in to it there was a few of the weaker players that was just folding or shoving but if i shove 100% of my stack witch would of been about 60% of most of the remaining players stack i'am not getting called with a weaker hand
i know alot of players think this way with 10bb shove or fold rule but on you saying you cant fold after betting 20% of my stack. if i get re-raised in that spot and there not expecting me too fold WHYYYY the hell would i call lol i know i know most players agree with the 10bb or less shove or fold. I dont agree with somtime's this is the case yes somtimes but not when the blinds get high and people have less play left a min raise gets walks. but the big thing is WE DONT HAVE TO CALL cash game i'm in yes i have to call. tournement when 2 double up's make's me the chip leader why when i'm best racing i cant re-buy i can find a better spot i can still grind a bit higher up the ladder.
The point is if you decide to shove with over 10bb someone won't have good odds to call you unless they have a strong hand, and so you stand a chance of a walk because they are forced to decide if they have enough to call you. However, you min raise and they shove on you and then you are the one facing the tough choice if you are at all weak.
Lets look at this hand in question. If you had min raised and the guy had shoved on you, would you have folded? you gie the impression you would have by your posts after your orginal. So you would have effectively tossed 20% of your stack away with the same hand. If you fold you lose nothing, and if you shoved preflop the guy with A10 "may" have worried about a shove from UTG and folded it. Impossible to say, as he may have called, but if he does you have the same hand and likely chop. The fact is you point the choice ON THEM, rather than yourself.
No harm I guess to fold this spot as its marginal A10 UTG, but raise at your stack is not really a good mathematical play at your stack size. Anyway, play your game how you wish as i said, but maybe read up on the reasons why people do advocate the shove/fold princibles at 10bb or less.
The player on the BB was a tricky player but he was a good player and i don't see him calling with me ahead unless at best racing. maybe i should of just folded pre but my big problem was the flop had any pictuer or even a 9 it's somthing i can bet at if i was in his situation and i bet out on the flop i would of punished me myself.
It was a £35 buyin 180 runner. 6th was about £260, 5th £380. 1st £1800 i know i have to get some luck of the cards to get the 1st cuz of how high the blinds but i'd rather be going gun ho if you like down to 4 player's i was still playing aggressive at this point but becaouse 3 of the players was shoving or folding i know there is going to be some showdowns before i'm dead in chips
A funny thing in this hand if i had shoved with A 10 suited and got called with A 10 and lost i would of been abit sick lol
But going back on it again like i say i dont like the idea of just shoving straight out. I think just folding A 10, 6 handed is too weak i dont have much longer to waite for hands. i know he hasn't called me with anything i put him on KQ small pair if he had small pair i couldn't take the pot if he had K or Q of hearts i think he calls me i think when i have taken so long and can't think of a way to take this pot down i could of gave up and tryed to get a cheap show down?
although again if he dont have the nut flush draw when i shove the turn i take it down.
.
If i changed this question around and said i was sat on a 6 handed table a guy went allin UTG with 12BB and it's the first time i have seen him go allin the hole tournment how strong of do i need to be to call him forgetting the BB there is still other player's in the hand and obviously the answer would be you need a strong hand too call, this guy dont put all his chips in light there for if i get called i'am way behind right so i will say it again some give me a REASON to shove 12BB at this stage of a tournment when everyone is faily close in chips and all i'am saying is i hope nobody has a big hand and if i'am i'm out that is not poker for me.
UTG its marginal, shove wouldn't be bad, folding wouldn't be bad.
However what you can't do, I repeat CAN'T DO, is raise/fold with that stack. There is simply no logical reason for doing it.
Just make your life sooooooo much easier, shove or fold pre. Simples.
Ok like i said i UNDERSTAND the reason to shove i know somtime's this is the case this 6 handed table i'am in is not.I know it's differen't too how alot of people play i have played in a tournment with 5k people and i wasn't allin once till the last 38 i know this is just my game and how i play. But this tournement here is at a stage where i have 3 players doing nothing but going alling or folding thats it nothing else i have raised 4 times in a row 2.5x from the button and got a walk. everybody is around the same amount of chips and i have 3 guys just going allin or folding if i wake up with a hand or somone else of the table wake's up with a hand while these are doing this not only will i move up in the prizes with this but with less players the more i can play poker. and another thing on this i just been to look at that helps my argument lol is the 3 players shove/folding guess what they came 5th 4th and 3rd
1) The value of the dead money in the pot.
2) The value of being first into the pot and EXPECTED VALUE.
3) The strength of your hand, relative to your position.
4) Maintaining your stack size and fold equity.
1) The reason why we should shove or fold when we have 12.5BB as here - or even as high as 20BB in some situations - is that the value of the dead money in the pot makes up a significant proportion of our stack. In this example, the 60k in the pot would be a 12% boost to our stack at a time when we and many other players at the table are short. That is a significant boost to our stack and effectively means we pay the rent for another orbit.
2) When we get our money in first we give ourselves two chances of winning: Our opponent may fold or our hand may win at showdown. The importance of this is that we can effectively add the value of our opponents fold to the chances of our hand being best at showdown. Let's say we make the shove and play this exact scenario out 100 times:
70% of the time our opponents all fold - Result: We gain 4,200,000
15% of the time one opponent calls and we are a 50% to win - Result: Neutral
15% of the time one opponent calls and we are 30% to win - Result: We lose 2,250,000
NET RESULT: +1,950,000
These numbers are merely illustrative and do not include the possibility of being called by worse than AT or of being called by AA. However we can see that the net result of shoving across a 100 hand sample is a profit of 1,950,000 chips. This is what we refer to as the Expected Value(EV) of the shove. The added value of the folds is the huge benefit to our stack and even when the chances of being called and being behind are added in, we're still making a profit.
The trick is in assessing how likely it is that we will be called. If we alter these numbers to say that the other players all fold only 60% of the time, 20% of the time we're flipping and 20% of the time we're a 70/30 underdog, the expected value becomes -400,000 chips.
3) Our position at the table is critical to assessing our hand strength. When we're folded to on the button or in the Small Blind with AT our hand is very likely to be best. This is because AT is far ahead of the average hand (Q7) and there are only one or two players yet to act. This means they are very likely to have weaker hands than our AT. Obviously the more players there are yet to act, the greater the chance that someone is holding a better hand than ours. When we're Under The Gun with AT there are five unknown hands behind us meaning there is a far greater chance that our AT is not the best hand. This forces the Expected Value of our shove down and means it's less profitable to play the hand. Our hand effectively becomes weaker as our position grows worse.
4) I think awareness of fold equity is perhaps the weakest area of your understanding. The reason that people say you should never be raising out of your 12.5BB stack with the intention of folding to a raise is simply that as you lose chips your fold equity falls and therefore your opportunities to win pots without the best hand are reduced. If we shove an unopened pot for 12BB, our opponents need a good hand to call but if we do the same with 9BB they don't need such a good hand and with 6BB they need even less of a hand. Once you get below 5BB they don't need any hand at all to call and you have lost all of your fold equity and are now totally reliant on your hand to be best. This means you are no longer playing a game of skill, you are playing a game of pure chance.
By being willing to bet 2.5BB and then fold you are willing to allow your stack to fall to 10BB without seeing a flop. After the blinds pass through you, you will have only 8.5BB. With 8.5BB you have far less fold equity than you do with 12.5BB or the 11BB you would otherwise have. Those extra chips that you have lost have greater value than just 2.5BB, they have the value of increasing your chances to win chips in future. By raising, then folding, you not only lose 100k chips but also the extra chips that those 100k could have allowed you to win.
These are the reasons why you should be either shoving or folding when your stack is this small. Raise-folding costs you more chips than you think. Also, there's a good chance that by raising then folding, someone might shove on us with a hand like 22, 33, 44, 55 or 66 that they might not be willing to make an all-in call with. We end up folding what would be a race and losing 2.5BB, while if we'd shoved we would have claimed the pot and gained 1.5BB. Remember, if we shove with AT and they call with these underpairs we've made a better EV play than they have. The same is true in reverse, so if we call a shove from them with AT hoping to see an underpair, they have made a better EV play than us.
As it is in this hand I think I would probably fold. I would rather make a shove into an unopened pot from late position with any two cards than shove from early position with this. It's a close decision, though. It all depends on how tight the table has been playing. If they've been tight and are unlikely to call without a big made hand then it's more a shove as I'm going to win without a showdown more often. Certainly a limp is never correct out of this stack and neither is a raise, intending to fold.
It's difficult to gauge exactly how much you are aware of from just a few posts but I can see that some of this ought to be helpful.
However I do understand what your trying to say. You can raise/fold with around 16-20bb against good players who understand the fundamentals of stack sizes in relation to the blinds. This means if you raise 2.5x pre, to them you have just moved all in, so you can fold if someone shoves over your raise as your going to be racing at best.
With 12bb though you can't do this. As someone already mentioned, given the % of your stack you've put in, if someone shoves you would HAVE to call.
Personally I think you should read his post thouroughly and try improve your game from it because it's an excellent, well thought out post.
Like I said no one is trying to have a go at you, everyone just wants to try and help. GL at the tables.
It's not me not understanding advice people giving me i have had this argument for YEARS and the few people i have found that do agree me a good at poker right i'm just going to take this one bit
70% of the time our opponents all fold - Result: We gain 4,200,000
15% of the time one opponent calls and we are a 50% to win - Result: Neutral
15% of the time one opponent calls and we are 30% to win - Result: We lose 2,250,000
LET ME CHANGE THIS AS A JOKER OK
95% of the time our opponents all fold
5% of the time one opponent calls
I AM STILL NOT GOING TO SHOVE I Play poker i take as much gamble out of my game as possible.I know people not having a go CURT360 but i had this argument for years. when i can win an extra £1500 with 6 players left and i know 5 of them i can crush and destroy i don't need to gamble i wont.
i went through 4950 players being without being allin once. in one day i played 2 tourney with 5k players and came 4th and 1st ok i dont think i will do that again any time soon but it works i know it works. if you are playing with good players right forget the stack sizes and i raise pre flop 12x i know if i get called i'am not going to be over the moon when somone calls now lets say this get's through and everyone folds what happens next hand then do i now raise 3x then fold to a shove leaving myself 10 BB if not do i carry on shoving till i'm up to how many BB? 16BB - 20 BB so either way everyone who agree's with this have look those made up odds thing by borinloaner cuz those odds can only be made when you have good idea how everyone on the table is playing for example if somone calls everyhand where your 15% odd they call now it's 100% yea lol.
But the big thing is if you say and stick with this rule how many time's do you do this and when do you say you can play poker again i'am just guessing but to me if you say you have to fold or shove with 12 BB then you must say that you need at least 18BB right so this would mean. You need a double up before you can play again yes. you get you double up your up too 24BB boom yea 2 lots of blinds go past we ent had a hand to play back down too 21BB now chance to nick the blinds somone shoves back down too 18BB i call on a board tryed to make a flush didn't get there lost the hand down to 11BB now ok here we go again allin or fold yes got the double up but the blinds have just gone up now i have only 14BB dam dam lets go again.
Ok i'am taking the mic with this now but ok if you get down low on chips you can still build your chips stack the same way if you have a large stack SO MUCH in big tournments unless you doing really well on chips there usually come's a stage when everyone do's not have many blinds unless a good deep stack tournment. if you are the one just trying to get the lucky double up's you will be the loosing player. The players making those little bets trying to grind there way up agressive or tight players they will be the one's making the money in the long run.
I'm calling a poker friend to get him to explain better for me anyway lol it's been fun
o yea one last thing though people saying i can't bet 20% of my stack and fold i can understand the debate about this but that is jut %$^%$ING stupid. come play some cash with me i know if you got £500 on the table i know if you get £100 in the pot i can have the rest of the £400 lol jokers
Just to address one or two points:
I have seen awful players win poker tournaments and I have no doubt that you have won some and placed highly in others. The trouble is that you think it's rational to use a few tournaments as examples of your own great ability. You need to appreciate that small sample sizes are meaningless and only over thousands of tournaments will your results actually reflect your ability.
You can't defend -EV plays as being good because they might win a tournament or two. Across a large sample size these plays will lose you money. That is not merely my opinion but indisputable, concrete fact. Arguing with that is simply illogical and betrays your own limited understanding of the game.
I'm afraid that those "jokers" you refer to are far better players than you. Since they are willing to listen and learn they will undoubtedly improve further, while you will not.
WOW
Unbelievable how arrogant and niave you are! Someone has taken the time and effort to explain in the clearest possible way what to do in these spots and you STILL refuse to accept he may just have a point!