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Is this a call on the river?
donkeyplopSmall blind 100.00100.007555.84spornybolBig blind 200.00300.003577.88 Your hole cardsAK chocs505Fold IDONKCALLURaise 450.00750.002361.28donkeyplopFold spornybolCall 250.001000.003327.88Flop 8A2 spornybolCheck IDONKCALLUCheck Turn Q spornybolBet 750.001750.002577.88IDONKCALLUCall 750.002500.001611.28River 10 spornybolAll-in 2577.885077.880.00
Comments
I'm not keen on anything you did in this hand.
Pre-flop: You've got 14BB and I'm assuming that if you had KQ, KJ, AT, A9, 55, etc. you would be shoving from the button. In order to balance your range you should also be shoving with AK. Of course I understand wanting to get extra value when you have a premium hand but if you're shoving often with this stack-size, you're more likely to get the call anyway. AK isn't even a made hand so when you're this short you don't want to see flops with it.
If I'm wrong to assume that you'd be shoving regularly with this stack, then at this blind level there's no need to add that extra 50 chips. A min-raise will do exactly the same job. It is only a small difference in any one individual hand but if you make this bet ten times, that's 500 chips (2.5BB). It soon adds up across your poker career. Frankly I think you should be shoving, as you ought never to be bet-folding out of a 14BB stack in a tournment anyway.
On the flop: Why did you miss the c-bet? You should be confident that you have the best Ace, given the pre-flop action. C-bet for half-pot and be happy if you take down the huge number of chips in the pot and be equally happy to get the lot in. The chances are slim that your opponent has a better hand than you right now but you can make them pay to draw to a flush and get value from weaker Aces. There are alot of scare cards that can come for you, so make your opponent pay to see them. There's no reason to not c-bet the flop.
On the turn: When you face this 750 bet, it's effectively a committing moment for you. If you think you have the best hand then shove. After the flop action you can still be called by weaker aces and someone holding a flush draw may give you a spin. You shouldn't be calling 750 out of your 2360 stack. If you think you're beat then fold but I don't see enough evidence to make me believe that you are beat.
When you get to this river it's a bit unpleasant. You've got to call 1600 to win 4100 so better than 2.5/1. We should never have got to this point but saying that is no reason to now make another mistake and make a bad call or a bad fold. Essentially you need to beat 2/7 of his range to break even in this spot. He's unlikely to be bluffing after you called his turn bet for so much of your stack but equally he was never likely to check a value hand on the river and risk either you checking behind when he has a monster, or you shoving behind when he has a slightly marginal hand, so his bet isn't necessarily huge strength. I would say you're much more likely to be behind than ahead here but he could perhaps be betting here with AJ, though that may have 3-bet pre-flop.
The only question now is whether those AJ's or some weird, unpredictable meta-game play make up 2/7 of his range for the bet on the river. I would expect that they don't to be honest so, in a vacuum, I'd say a fold to this river bet is correct...
Folding the river is what I would advise after you got into this situation but by focusing on your play on the river you're overlooking the big mistakes you made in the hand up to that point. You should never have got to this river without your money in the middle.
Your stack is 2300 right?, so 11 bbs?...Allin preflop
As played bet the flop!. Why are you checking behind so any worse hand can catch up.
As played shove allin turn!, why leave so little behind.
Misplayed every street in my opinion.
I think you've got to accept that you murdered this hand. I'm not trying to sound cruel but attempting to justify your play suggests that you're not recognising your mistakes.
You cant pot control with an 11 bb stack!
Just shove pre as it makes life sooooooooooooooo much easier.
+1... Didn't mention it in my first post, as just commented on as played. But with your stack, its all in preflop, or all in on flop as next best.. No pot control ever with your stack.
Also did the fact it was the money bubble that stopped you going for it??
If so even more of a reason to shove pre as hes going to have to have a very strong hand to call you.
You are beat on the river but even the small chance your not. so little information you cant call anyway i think the check on flop is really bad. thats what has cost you the pot free cards. if the guy has A with q of hearts dont worry about the pot controll when 1) You have a Big Hand you dont want to try and keep pot small 2)you have hardly any chips. with a short stack on A high board and top kicker lick ur lips get the money in the way you played it looked like u was scared to get your money in and if you had checked and heart came on the turn all you would be saying now is oooops. now u cant bet or call.
so yes fold river forget pot odds cuz we know you are beat but bet the flop next time
shove pre, next case
you can mr to induce, but bet bet bet bet if called, never check that flop
however looks like the point has been made! Shove pre!