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Good spot for thin value?
Reads opponent seems to be a strong thinking player, capable of making outside the box plays. He either views me as a very capable regular, or complete idiot moron monkey drooler. Probably the former, but a hand came up before this, where I raised the btn /w T7o, and he flatted, Flop 993r, he checked, I bet 2/3 pot, he made a smallish c/r and I called. Turn came a K and he checked, I checked back. River came a T, He bet, I called and he had T8o.
Think he might realise my value range should be really really narrow in that spot, so my percieved range is polarised to straights/flushes (though I doubt he thinks i'd bet the river this big with these sinc ehis hand is pretty face up), and air...lots and lots of air.
However, I expect to be valuetowning myself vs 2p, but is there enough 1p hands (weaker jacks, 8's, 7's) in his c/c range to make this good?
Competing poker site Game #35470544960: Tournament #213375649, $30.00+$1.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2009/11/17 11:58:48 WET [2009/11/17 6:58:48 ET]
Table '213375649 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: 2Wisdomy (1640 in chips)
Seat 2: archenemy85 (1360 in chips)
2Wisdomy: posts small blind 10
archenemy85: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 2Wisdomy [Ah Jd]
2Wisdomy: raises 40 to 60
archenemy85: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [Jc 4c 8d]
archenemy85: checks
2Wisdomy: bets 90
archenemy85: calls 90
*** TURN *** [Jc 4c 8d] [6c]
archenemy85: checks
2Wisdomy: checks
*** RIVER *** [Jc 4c 8d 6c] [7d]
archenemy85: checks
2Wisdomy: bets 300
Comments
He can't have a flush or else he would have bet the river, at least.
If he had a straight, he would surely have made an infamous bbv (blocking bet for value) on the river.
Your check on the turn shows weakness (or a made flush, I guess) and means that he could call with any 1p hand on the river.