on the bubble - can I / should I fold

GELDY

£100 bi - final table 7/50 left - live

ante 500 blinds 1200/2400

cutoff (villain) raises to 7200

button (hero) 1010 - raises to 22000 (out of 75000 - avg size stack - no real short stacks on table - covered by villain)

villain calls

flop: Q84 rainbow

villain meant to bet 25k, but somehow accidentally drops another 10k over the line - no you cannot take them back says the dealer. so now my intended shove allin gets called regardless. I tank, I pick up my chips to put them in and the villain waves his hand dismissively, saying yeah, yeah. 

What should I do - he has me covered and has to call. I have a nice hand and could be ahead, and would have shoved without that extra 10k. We are on the bubble but I am playing to win.

The_Don90

Strange line from villian if im honest. Not sure what we can do now, although i dont think this extra 10k makes a differance. 25k bet probably still has to call your 50k anyways. It seems to me hes delibertly commiting himself to the pot, which suggests to me hes strong but not comfortable if put to a test. AK/JJ may do this 99 maybe. A8 would but woud he still be hear with that. If hes confident you have AA/KK he might do this with a set.

Hmmm interesting hand. I think i could use some more reads to give you a definative answer from my opinions. Assinging a range is pretty important here and i think im struggling to give an honest answer readless.

GELDY

not much of a read - never played him before this final table - but he's worked in/run a cardroom for years so knows poker (but maybe not how to play). Been mildly active but not enough to suggest playing light. Had donk bet a flop heads up and 3-bet strong to take it down 10 mins before against a cash pro (which he would have known).

he has more of a read on me - but only in the sense he knows I am a reg and that I do win.

didn't count the bet tbh - but I felt that without the extra 10k I did have some fold equity - but with it he was pot committed. do think it was a genuine mistake by him rather than some form of exotic table play. 

TommyD

Fold.

In spots like this when someone makes a chip mistake they do not make a fuss about the extra chip if they are light.  If they are light they generally freeze like a rabbit in the headlights and hope you fold.  When they put in a big show they generally have it.

I'm not sure how I feel about your 3bet TBH, need more info on how tight/loose the villain is.  We're playing 31BB and 3bet to a little over 9BB.  We're in funky stack land and if we bet to this level we really want him to be either shoving or folding.  Him flatting and donking is just hideous for us.  Either way I think you can 3bet smaller, I know he's 3x opened but I think we only need to go to 17k/18k.

Also have you seen him donk before?  Does he donk with strength, for info with marginals or with draws?

It's nasty but I fold, this has nothing to do with 'going for the win.'  I'm just seeing strength here.

The_Don90

In Response to Re: on the bubble - can I / should I fold:

Fold. In spots like this when someone makes a chip mistake they do not make a fuss about the extra chip if they are light.  If they are light they generally freeze like a rabbit in the headlights and hope you fold.  When they put in a big show they generally have it. I'm not sure how I feel about your 3bet TBH, need more info on how tight/loose the villain is.  We're playing 31BB and 3bet to a little over 9BB.  We're in funky stack land and if we bet to this level we really want him to be either shoving or folding.  Him flatting and donking is just hideous for us.  Either way I think you can 3bet smaller, I know he's 3x opened but I think we only need to go to 17k/18k. Also have you seen him donk before?  Does he donk with strength, for info with marginals or with draws? It's nasty but I fold, this has nothing to do with 'going for the win.'  I'm just seeing strength here.
Posted by TommyD

After Geldys reply think im inclided to agree tommy. i didnt even notice the 3bet sizing. Looks super strong to me. 

simonnatur

 I pick up my chips to put them in and the villain waves his hand dismissively, saying yeah, yeah. 

Surely his reaction as you're about to shove is designed to discourage you from betting and/or indicate that he is pot committed anyway.

To me it seems most likely he doesnt like you shoving, the hard part is working out whether this is because his hand is say QJ  or smaller pairs/AK. Feels like none of these love life when you shove but are still committed due to size of pot?

GELDY

So I kept my chips in my hand, and mucked instead. He kindly showed his 99.

Thanks everyone for your help, I'm glad it wasn't trivial, and that folding wasn't dumb.

Oh - good spot on bet sizing TommyD. Amusingly I also put the wrong number of chips over - it should have been 20200 but two 1000s went over instead of the 100s. This mistake was not revealed at the table. (I know, but we were all getting a bit tired - coming on for 3am). Have noted I should trim it down a little at that stage in the tournie.

& as for donking - just the one other hand that I mentioned above, which on that occassion at least wasn't being put down.

AllInKev

Youve shown super strength re-raising to that amount with your stack and generally shows to me that youve got a hand, even if you are in position. With TT in that spot, you dont really want to see a flop if your re-raise has been called especially if you have committed a 1/3 of your stack. Youve got a nice stack for a FT (normally its a shove-fest at this time!) but i'd either call to control the size of the pot and will make you feel slightly less committed post flop, or, more likely, id re-shove the lot, trying to make it look like a bit of a squeeze and if your picking up 15k, youve added 20% to your stack, which is massive at this time of the tournament. If you run into JJ-AA, your unlucky, but this happens 10% of the time, 10% of the time you get a call from AK (or such like) and that leaves you with massive fold equity which makes it even better for you.

Like you say, its late, youve been playing for 6+ hours, youve drunk too much coffee (or booze!) and id be suggesting a deal for 7th and get it done quicker (which normally leads to people calling lighter, which is always good!)

Kev