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Can't think of a title as its 3.55am but any input would be cool! What do we put villain on here?
KIN MON!
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PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance-Small blind £0.25£0.25£68.12VillainBig blind £0.50£0.75£151.27-Big blind £0.50£1.25£124.50 Your hole cardsAA -Check -Fold -Fold dub1Raise £2.00£3.25£121.50-Call £1.75£5.00£66.37Villain Raise £10.00£15.00£141.27-Fold dub1Raise £26.00£41.00£95.50-Fold Villain Call £17.50£58.50£123.77Flop Q35 Villain Check dub1Check Turn 3 Villain Check dub1Bet £20.00£78.50£75.50Villain Call £20.00£98.50£103.77River 6 Villain Bet £35.00£133.50£68.77dub1Fold Villain Muck Villain Win £96.70 £165.47Villain Return £35.00£1.80£200.47
I don't know if you've given them a wide enough range here, regardless of whether they are a capable reg or not, the large 3bet doesnt instantly mean QQ+ / AK. Also you always have to attribute a small portion of villains range to lighter holdings.
You have taken a very standard line in a 4bet pot, your thought process in this spot is fairly transparent. 4bet pre then checking back a flop is almost always signifying showdown value. eg you never have AK or any light 4bet holdings here.
So now your villain will probably narrow your range to 10 10+ if he hadnt already done this pre flop.
I think you are correct his river lead is for value, looks like he doesn't want it to go c/c, also he might be trying to induce. He could also be bet folding a flush.
It's a respectable fold imo. i just find it odd that you are 4betting then shutting down. If you are only looking for 1 street of value then maybe you could c back turn as well, then call off on riv or make value bet if checked to.
didnt read alot of it as it was a big wall of text but basically he should be super strong to put 56bbs in preflop with 200bb behind.
on flop i think checking is fine or you can bet like £15 try to look weak and let him do something stupid. doesnt make much sense for villain to have KK here because he is turning his hand into a bluff (although your hand can look alot like aq here)
reminds me of a hand i played a few months ago and they had qq that time so maybe im biased!
I think putting villain on a specific range of QQ+,AK is dangerous. He could profitably call a 4bet OOP precisely because he can be 100% sure of getting his implied odds knowing that your committed and ready to stack off as you say (ironically with villain knowing you'll stack off with the exact range of QQ+,AK-the range you think he holds).
You have blockers to AK, giving him AK 50% of time (8 combos instead of 16). And Aces 2/6.
If you crunch the numbers your laying... his getting 1) immediate odds of 2.34:1 { his range only needs >29% equity to call } 2) implied odds of 7.8:1 {so he could profitably flat with 22 as he only needs 11% equity}.
Lastly if he is as solid as you say, then yeah he could be 3betting squeezing you (most likely the reason for £10 to get pot HU IP BvB) with 99+,AJs,AQo,KQs,T9s-98s and continuing to flat with most of his range given price.
I'm just pointing out its really dangerous to put as much time as you have thinking about this hand but then only restrict him QQ,KK which is basically what your doing when you say QQ+,AK.
As played with an Stack to Pot ratio of 1.6 on the flop, I don't mind a bet/fold on flop based on a strong read and a gut feel. Your turn sizing nice if you wanna jam river but if your not prepared to call river dont bet turn, just bluff call his river donk. Looks like he had the best hand tho, trying to induce you to shove on river.
Hope this helps, see you at the tables.