bubble time 5 euro rebuy

IDONKCALLU

played a 5 euro rebuy on other site top 20 pay 21 left i was 14th at the time so a comftable cash was only 18 euros for cash so going for the win anyway blinds are 1k/2k with 200 antes   i am big blind with ace jack sitting with 28 k so 14 big blinds folds all way round to guy on button who has me covered small blind is only on 9 k this guy jams all in 40 k thinking prob dnt mind if the ssmall stack calls still has enuff if he loses but is this a call from me knowing its the bubble he just bullying or is this a snap call thoughts please 

percival09

snap

beaneh

Fold I assume you want to cash? get it in more liberally relative to your stack once you're in the money or the shorties double.

IDONKCALLU

is top heavy 350 winner 200 2nd 150 3rd so i decided to fold and liek beaneh said cash 1st then go for it as 20 -11th is all same cash but top 5 is a nice profit i asked the guy what he had said he had 8s so woulda been a flip

beaneh

the question is whether taking the small edge with the flip or w/e else hand he holds does that benefit us more in terms of a chance to get first relative to how much you risk losing everytime you lose the allin and don't cash at all even though there is a much shorter stack than you.

IDONKCALLU

was happy with the fold if i call im never gonna be favourite by much 

Lambert180

Couldn't he be shoving worse Ax hands where you are a big favourite, if he's abusing the bubble. But yeah I probably fold.

IDONKCALLU

could be yeah but a 20 x shove more suspicious i thought any just crashed out had i wnt bore ya all had jacks i raised guy jams i snap call with jacks against queens

percival09

doesn't matter what he had or what stack he had.  the effective stack is 14bb so he's gonna be shoving many worse hands inc. worse aces. good chance of being at least 60% equity and when you're so shallow I think it's too good an opportunity to miss. Suppose it depends. With the intention of top 3 then it's an easy call, if you're set on cashing well yeah fold

unknown_username

HI ID'

Not looked at others but i'd fold TBH. I know we read 'be aggro' around bubble but you can lose with anything. SB has enough to make cash so surely has some sort of hand. Pocket pr would leave you a flip and even two lower cards leaves you in 60:40 range depending on SC's etc. I'd wait for a better time even after the bubble bursts as then you get the 'i'm just relieved to have cashed, let's chuck it in!' players who are tired out ....

mj8bs

For me thats a fold. I never want to be the one making the call in that situation. if it got folded round to me though Id prob shove the AJ

IDONKCALLU

yeah easier to shove then call

Curt360x27

TBH I'm baffled by the vast majority of people saying they would fold. Surely its a snap call unless we have solid reads? Right? 

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: bubble time 5 euro rebuy:

TBH I'm baffled by the vast majority of people saying they would fold. Surely its a snap call unless we have solid reads? Right? 
Posted by Curt360x27

+1

pr1nnyraid

If Villain had the hand face up and it was 7-2 off you should still fold AJ here.

There is going for the win and sacraficing $EV in the tournament by being all in on the exact bubble. This should never be a call.

percival09

In Response to Re: bubble time 5 euro rebuy:

If Villain had the hand face up and it was 7-2 off you should still fold AJ here. There is going for the win and sacraficing $EV in the tournament by being all in on the exact bubble. This should never be a call.
Posted by pr1nnyraid

couldn't disagree more.

surely we didn't play the 5 euro tournament to crawl into the money, we play a 5 euro tournament to win a few hundred euros. I think it's more profitable to make this call than not too. This is probz the best opportunity we'll have for a double up which we desperately need 

bugaloo

absolute snap call surely?

his range is massive here and our hand is in a decent spot against a lot of it.

i dont understand it when people post things like "yeah you were probably a 60% fav" in all likelyhood when you do get it all in in whatever way in the next 30 mins you would snap there hands off to be in that position

pr1nnyraid

In Response to Re: bubble time 5 euro rebuy:

In Response to Re: bubble time 5 euro rebuy : couldn't disagree more. surely we didn't play the 5 euro tournament to crawl into the money, we play a 5 euro tournament to win a few hundred euros. I think it's more profitable to make this call than not too. This is probz the best opportunity we'll have for a double up which we desperately need 
Posted by percival09

You have to take ICM into account, surely we are playing this tournament to win as much profit in the long run??!

when 21 players are left and 20 get paid, then you need far more equity in a hand to make it profitable $ wise. 

To simplify, a +EV play here can be a -$EV spot. 

It's all about thinking about the $ value of your stack, our stack at this stage is worth at a guess 25euros (a little over a min cash), this is the expected return from our stack in this position of the tourney if it was to play out over a large sample.

Therefore by calling an all in we are risking 25euros of expected value (or $EV).

If he doubles up here in chips then his $EV isnt going to double to 50euros, his $EV is only going to increase marginally in proportion to the tournament payout, with a double up our $EV in the tournament might become ~30euros at most.

So now we are sacraficing 25euros of $EV to gain an extra 5euros in $EV. 
Now you need to relate that to the ChipEV in the hand. to risk 25 to win 5 you need ~83% equity in the flip to make a profit. 
AJ vs 72off suit is < 83% equity. Therefore $EV wise this would be a fold vs 72off purely from a money making point of view. 

 

percival09

I'm not good with the maths side of poker, but I think there's more chance of it being profitable calling this shove and having a better chance of winning the entire tournament rather than just cashing

pr1nnyraid

In Response to Re: bubble time 5 euro rebuy:

I'm not good with the maths side of poker, but I think there's more chance of it being profitable calling this shove and having a better chance of winning the entire tournament rather than just cashing
Posted by percival09

Yeah but you aren't thick so you should grasp that concept?

in short- if our current value in the tournament is £25
Calling and going out = minus £25.
Calling and  doubling up = +£5
Folding and almost guaranteeing a cash = minus £0.50p

All aproximate but you get me..

grantorino

What prinnyraid said.  

You will never have enough equity v his range to make this a plus$ev call. Also his range may not even be that wide, not everyone in $5 tourneys plays optimally

bearlyther

Folding here is really nitty from a 14 bb stack from a button shove.  Folding so we can break into the bubble and win 18 euros.  SUrely if we had this mindset we should be entering a don sit n go to double our money rather than entering a tournament.

unknown_username

In Response to Re: bubble time 5 euro rebuy:

In Response to Re: bubble time 5 euro rebuy : You have to take ICM into account, surely we are playing this tournament to win as much profit in the long run??! when 21 players are left and 20 get paid, then you need far more equity in a hand to make it profitable $ wise.  To simplify, a +EV play here can be a -$EV spot.  It's all about thinking about the $ value of your stack, our stack at this stage is worth at a guess 25euros (a little over a min cash), this is the expected return from our stack in this position of the tourney if it was to play out over a large sample. Therefore by calling an all in we are risking 25euros of expected value (or $EV). If he doubles up here in chips then his $EV isnt going to double to 50euros, his $EV is only going to increase marginally in proportion to the tournament payout, with a double up our $EV in the tournament might become ~30euros at most. So now we are sacraficing 25euros of $EV to gain an extra 5euros in $EV.  Now you need to relate that to the ChipEV in the hand. to risk 25 to win 5 you need ~83% equity in the flip to make a profit.  AJ vs 72off suit is < 83% equity. Therefore $EV wise this would be a fold vs 72off purely from a money making point of view.   
Posted by pr1nnyraid

 A VERY GOOD POINT...THE ONLY TIME CHIP EQUITY IS THE SAME AS CASH EQUITY IS AT A CASH TABLE. ICM SHOULD BE CONSIDERED....

NColley

on the bubble you want to be applying the pressure yourself.. maximising your increased fold equity to win pots uncontested.

calling off 14 bb with AJ when a shortstack has ~ 4bb doesn't seem like a good idea to me

pr1nnyraid

In Response to Re: bubble time 5 euro rebuy:

Folding here is really nitty from a 14 bb stack from a button shove.  Folding so we can break into the bubble and win 18 euros.  SUrely if we had this mindset we should be entering a don sit n go to double our money rather than entering a tournament.
Posted by bearlyther

You don't seem to grasp that calling and losing here is a disaster. 

If your aim is to win more tournaments and you dont mind sacraficing some profit for that then go ahead and call. But if you are looking at this from an ROI point of view (which you should be) it's a clear as day fold.

21 left, 20 paid and you want to call it off with AJ.. your are one crazy cat

IDONKCALLU

woooow loads of responses didnt think this be a hot topic but yeah easy to shove with aj then to call with aj theres a term for this can any 1 tell me where its always easy to shove with marginal holdings but harder to cal 

pr1nnyraid

In Response to Re: bubble time 5 euro rebuy:

woooow loads of responses didnt think this be a hot topic but yeah easy to shove with aj then to call with aj theres a term for this can any 1 tell me where its always easy to shove with marginal holdings but harder to cal 
Posted by IDONKCALLU

The gap concept?

Which is way different from ICM obv

grantorino

Yeah the reason you don't call here is nothing to do with the gap concept

Bearlyther, we are not trying to limp into money, we are trying to maximise profit. We will not increase our average profit for the tournament by calling, even though we probably have enough chip equity to call. Calling increases our average chipstack, but reduces our average profit from the tournament

IDONKCALLU

thats the 1 prinny