PREM WEEK 7

Wilhelm

Last week's results were terrible for me.  I can't see that trend changing much this week but hey ho.

West Brom to beat QPR at home @ 10-11 looks good value.  West Brom is a well organised machine, QPR is a shambles.

I've also gone for draws for City and Chelsea.  They've had to play midweek and the prices for both are just too tempting.

I've also had another bet put on in error.  Everton to beat Wigan at the DW @ 10-11.  Last week the bet I put on by mistake was the only one to come in.  I can see that happening again.  

Date Event Pick Odds Stake Result P/L

18/08/2012 Arsenal v Sunderland Draw 4-1 1 pt 0-0 4 pts

26/08/2012 Liverpool v Man City Man City 29-20 3 pts 2-2 1 pts

25/08/2012 A Villa v Everton Everton 6-4 3 pts 1-3 5.5 pts

25/08/2012 Norwich v QPR Norwich 7-5 3 pts 1-1 2.5 pts

01/09/2012 Man City v QPR Draw 13-2 0.5 pts 3-1 2 pts

01/09/2012 Tottenham v Norwich Draw 21-5 1 pt 1-1 6.2 pts

01/09/2012 Wigan v Stoke Wigan 13-10 3 pts 2-2 3.2 pts

02/09/2012 Newcastle v A Villa Newcastle 13-20 6 pts 1-1 -2.8 pts

17/09/2012 Everton v Newcatsle Draw 13-5 1.5 pts 2-2 1.1 pts

22/09/2012 Newcastle v Norwich Norwich 9-2 1 pt 1-0 0.1 pt

23/09/2012 Liverpool v Man Utd Draw 12-5 1.5 pts 1-2 -1.4pts

23/09/2012 Tottenham v QPR Draw 7-2 1 pt 2-1 -2.4pts

29/09/2012 Stoke v Swansea Draw 13-5 1.5 pts 2-0 -3.9 pts

29/09/2012 Norwich v Liverpool Norwich 19-5 1 pt 2-5 -4.9 pts

29/09/2012 Man Utd v Tottenham Man Utd 8-13 6.5 pts 2-3 -11.4 pts

29/09/2012 Arsenal v Cheslea Chelsea 13-5 1.5 pts 1-2 -7.5 pts

06/10/2012 West Brom v QPR West Brom 10-11 4.5 pts Pending -12 pts

06/10/2012 Man City v Sunderland Draw 19-4 1 pt Pending -13 pts

06/10/2012 Chelsea v Norwich Draw 6-1 0.5 pts Pending -13.5 pts

06/10/2012 Wigan v Everton Everton  10-11 2 pts Pending -15.5 pts

Wilhelm

Week 1:

Had a long look at the prices and the only thing I've got on is the draw in Arsenal v Sunderland at 4/1.  That price is just wrong.

Edit: 15/4 still value imo

Wilhelm

Week 2:

This week I fancy Manchester City away to Liverpool at 29/20.    I have no idea why that price is so big.  They'll win this tie 60 times out of 100.  Im a huge fan of Brendan Roger's philosophy, but there are too many egos at Liverpool, and the defenders aren't as comfortable in posession as they need to be.

Edit: I also like Everton and Norwich this week.

1267

Good luck.

Man city price does seem pretty massive. 
Quite like the Everton bet. but Villa are abit of an unknown quantity at the minute. Wouldn't be too surprised if Villa were to win 4-0 or something out of nowhere !
Not so keen on the Norwich bet.   QPR players have gotta start playing soon.   Think they have the better players, just cannot play as a team .......yet. !

1267

For the record, i think City will win . Nasri and tevez on fire.

Wilhelm

In Response to Re: PREM WEEK 2:

Good luck. Man city price does seem pretty massive.  Quite like the Everton bet. but Villa are abit of an unknown quantity at the minute. Wouldn't be too surprised if Villa were to win 4-0 or something out of nowhere ! Not so keen on the Norwich bet.   QPR players have gotta start playing soon.   Think they have the better players, just cannot play as a team .......yet. !
Posted by 1267

I was in two minds about Norwich.  I think Chris Hughton is one of the most overrated managers in the country.  However, I don't think he's changed too much from Lambert's reign.  I don't think the players QPR have brought in are necessarily any bettert than the players they already had.  Hopefully Norwich'll just edge it.  I'm confident I'm getting a good price anyway.

dubmaster

10 accum pays around 17/1

everton  7/5

sunderland 4/5

leeds 11/8

notts county 4/6  all to win

same teams £5 accum half-time win around 50/1

good luck all with bets

shuv

Spurs
United
Mansfiled
Luton
Partick
Queen of South

£50 returns £399.57

achill

£5 returns £36

	Championship	Peterborough v Leeds	Both Teams to Score	25/08/2012 15:00	Yes @ 1.57
	Championship	Charlton v Hull	Under/Over 2.5 Goals	25/08/2012 15:00	Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.73
	League 2	Bradford v AFC Wimbledon	Both Teams to Score	25/08/2012 15:00	Yes @ 1.67
	Scottish Division 3	Montrose v Annan	Under/Over 2.5 Goals	25/08/2012 15:00	Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57

Be lucky.

dubmaster

In Response to Re: PREM WEEK 2:

10 accum pays around 17/1 everton  7/5 sunderland 4/5 leeds 11/8 notts county 4/6  all to win same teams £5 accum half-time win around 50/1 good luck all with bets
Posted by dubmaster

 notts county ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Wilhelm

Week 3:

I've had another long look at the opening prices and the only thing that jumps out at me is in the Man City/QPR game.  Man City at 2/9 and QPR at 14/1 both seem like bad value, but the draw at 13/2 screams of value.  I think it should be closer to 5-1.  Get on if you can.  That price won't be around for long.

Edit: I've added a couple more value busters to the betslip.  I've gone for a draw at White Hart Lane at a good price and a win for Wigan against Stoke.  I think Stoke might really struggle this season and Wigan ended the last campaing (and started this one) playing some decent football.  I think Martinez has cracked it.  I'm also in two minds over backing Newcastle at home to Villa at a very short price.  I might just sleep on it.

2nd Edit: I slept on it, and the Newcastle price improved to 13/20.  I lumped a bit on and regretted it immediately as I remembered Newcastle are playing in the Europa League tonight, and they only drew the first leg.  With any luck Pardew will field a weakened team, but from my memories of him at West Ham, he did like a cup run.  

1267

Man city will NOT draw with QPR i am afraid.

Wilhelm

In Response to Re: PREM WEEK 3:

Man city will NOT draw with QPR i am afraid.
Posted by 1267

Probably not, but when the price is wrong you have to jump on it.

It's a bit like AA v 22.  Sometimes 22 gets there.

MP33

In Response to PREM WEEK 3:

I've had another long look at the opening prices and the only thing that jumps out at me is in the Man City/QPR game.  Man City at 2/9 and QPR at 14/1 both seem like bad value, but the draw at 13/2 screams of value.  I think it should be closer to 5-1.  Get on if you can.  That price won't be around for long. Date Event Pick Odds Stake Result P/L 18/08/2012 Arsenal v Sunderland Draw 4-1 1 pt 0-0 4 26/08/2012 Liverpool v Man City Man City 29-20 3 pts 2-2 1 25/08/2012 A Villa v Everton Everton 6-4 3 pts 1-3 5.5 25/08/2012 Norwich v QPR Norwich 7-5 3 pts 1-1 2.5 01/09/2012 Man City v QPR Draw 13-2 0.5 pts Pending 2
Posted by Wilhelm

Definate value - Man City looked to casual in 1st game and went behind as a result. QPR only just survived last season despite the money behind them and now Mark Hughes has been there a while i think they,ll get better and will be quite happy with the draw as well

1267

In Response to Re: PREM WEEK 3:

Man city will NOT draw with QPR i am afraid.
Posted by 1267

Wilhelm

Week 4:

The only thing that has jumped out at me this week is the draw in the Everton/Newcastle game.  Sky are offering 13/5 which looks a tiny bit tasty.  Only a tiny bit mind.  Otherwise I can't find any value this week.

Wilhelm

Week 5:

Had another early look at the prices.  Sky are offering 9/2 for Norwich to beat Newcastle at St James' Park.  Newcastle are playing away midweek in the Europa League, but even if they weren't I still think 9/2 would be a good price.  They should be more like 4-1.  Had to jump on it.

Edit: I've added a couple of draws into the mix.  Liverpool/Man Utd at 12/5 and Tottenham/QPR at 7/2 are both good value.

ALFIE123

I have to say Wilhelm you say u cant find much value in the Prem League betting wise.
I cant remember the last time i put a Prem match in an Acca as just cant get value whereas all the value
seems to be Div 1 and Div 2 and Scottish lower leagues. 
Same applies to Champions League as well as Prem.
Good luck tho m8. 

1267

Fulham and Villa prices looking pretty massive to me  !

68Trebor

 Tasty treble for the weekend.

 Friday night - Blackburn 4/5 to beat Boro.

 Saturday - West Brom 4/5 to beat Reading.

 Sunday - Newcastle 8/11 to beat Norwich.

 4.6/1 TREBLE.

 Fill your boots.

THEROCK573

In Response to Re: PREM WEEK 5:

 Tasty treble for the weekend.  Friday night - Blackburn 4/5 to beat Boro.  Saturday - West Brom 4/5 to beat Reading.  Sunday - Newcastle 8/11 to beat Norwich.  4.6/1 TREBLE.  Fill your boots.
Posted by 68Trebor

yep agreed, blackpool on monday at 4/5 against huddersfield aswell tho!!!

68Trebor

 Looked at Blackpool but was slightly put off by Huddersfield's really good 3-1 win at Sheff Wed on wednesday night.

MP33

In Response to PREM WEEK 5:

Had another early look at the prices.  Sky are offering 9/2 for Norwich to beat Newcastle at St James' Park.  Newcastle are playing away midweek in the Europa League, but even if they weren't I still think 9/2 would be a good price.  They should be more like 4-1.  Had to jump on it. Edit: I've added a couple of draws into the mix.  Liverpool/Man Utd at 12/5 and Tottenham/QPR at 7/2 are both good value. Date Event Pick Odds Stake Result P/L 18/08/2012 Arsenal v Sunderland Draw 4-1 1 pt 0-0 4 pts 26/08/2012 Liverpool v Man City Man City 29-20 3 pts 2-2 1 pts 25/08/2012 A Villa v Everton Everton 6-4 3 pts 1-3 5.5 pts 25/08/2012 Norwich v QPR Norwich 7-5 3 pts 1-1 2.5 pts 01/09/2012 Man City v QPR Draw 13-2 0.5 pts 3-1 2 pts 01/09/2012 Tottenham v Norwich Draw 21-5 1 pt 1-1 6.2 pts 01/09/2012 Wigan v Stoke Wigan 13-10 3 pts 2-2 3.2 pts 02/09/2012 Newcastle v A Villa Newcastle 13-20 6 pts 1-1 -2.8 pts 17/09/2012 Everton v Newcatsle Draw 13-5 1.5 pts 2-2 1.1 pts 22/09/2012 Newcastle v Norwich Norwich 9-2 1 pt Pending 0.1 pt 23/09/2012 Liverpool v Man Utd Draw 12-5 1.5 pts Pending -1.4pts 23/09/2012 Tottenham v QPR Draw 7-2 1 pt Pending -2.4pts
Posted by Wilhelm

Definately always something worth considering depending on where they are playing as well. I often find teams are playing to many games in the Europa league and it often interupts their Premier league season

Just got a £5 match bet so couldn,t pick a winner out of these two so had the draw


20/09/2012
23:12Bet StakeSouthampton v Aston Villa - Draw @ 9/4 -£5.00

20/09/2012 23:50

Bet Stake

Wigan Athletic v Fulham - Draw @ 9/4

£5.00 Freebet Used

Wilhelm

Week 7:

This week I've had three bets.  Hopefully they'll go a better than last week's.

I've gone for the draw in the Stoke/Swansea game at 13/5.  Its very hard for any team to get a win at Portman Road, and Stoke are winless in their last 11 games, having drawn eight of them.

In Norwich I have backed a home team at a long price; 19/5.  You can get 4/1 but I don't have an account with any of those sites.  19/5 is still decent value.  

The last time I backed a short priced favourite I felt a bit sick.  Undettered, I've gone for Man U to beat Tottenham @ 8/13.  I can't see where the bookies are getting that price from.

Edit: I've also had  abit on Chelsea to beat Arsenal @13/5 in error.  I wouldn't advise that one.

1267

Hate to say it, but i personally think its very very unlikely norwich and man,u will win.

I think Newcastle are a great price,  and spurs an even greater price,  AVB has said he is going to attack, and man.u defense is looking better going forward than actually defending !   Cumonn Spurs

Wilhelm

OP ammended