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Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls

MP33MP33
edited December 2012 in Betting Chat
Early odds - Not sure who eveyone is but i think Denise Van Outen, although favourite may be a good price

Perhaps We could get Orford to post and let us know if she,s any good or done much dancing before

I think Nicky Bryne ( Boyzone singer )will be popular with the ladies although they never did much dancing - mainly sitting on stools from what i remember

Any other tips, bets  or advice pls post

108.3% BackAll LayAll 95.1%
Market Activity Denise Van Outen 3.85 £12 3.9 £21 4.2 £49 4.6 £17 5 £2 5.4 £110
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Market Activity Louis Smith 4.2 £10 4.3 £15 4.4 £9 4.6 £2 4.7 £3 4.8 £110
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Market Activity Kimberley Walsh 6 £7 6.4 £7 6.6 £26 6.8 £9 7 £41 7.2 £2
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Market Activity Nicky Byrne 7 £20 7.2 £2 7.4 £72 8 £7 8.6 £2 9.6 £2
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Market Activity Victoria Pendleton 9.6 £5 9.8 £15 10 £7 11.5 £7 12.5 £10 13 £10
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Market Activity Dani Harmer 13 £4 14 £9 14.5 £19 15 £4 16 £25 17 £8
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Market Activity Colin Salmon 20 £5 26 £4 27 £9 38 £2 40 £5  
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Market Activity Michael Vaughan 27 £5 28 £10 29 £4 38 £3 40 £4 42 £8
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Market Activity Richard Arnold 28 £9 65 £8 70 £5 200 £2   
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Market Activity Sid Owen 40 £8 42 £7 44 £2 95 £2   
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Market Activity Fern Britton 48 £3 50 £6 55 £2 100 £7   
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Market Activity Lisa Riley 80 £5 85 £2 90 £4 150 £2 170 £2 180 £6
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Market Activity Jerry Hall 80 £2 85 £2 90 £2    
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Market Activity Johnny Ball 60 £4 70 £2 75 £5 180 £2 190 £2 250 £2
Ps - Theres always someone who the public like to vote for - for comedy value - Anne Widecombe - Russell Grant amongst others as it is at the end of the day it is an entertainment show and they often do a lot better than expected . I,m thinking maybe Lisa Riley (used to be in Emmerdale) . Can,t see her getting lifted up and gliding around a dancefloor

My first thoughts are Denise Van Outen and Nicky Bryne in the final and for a dark horse Victoria Pendleton. looking forward to see her in some of those sexy outfits they wear on the show

GL to all having a bet
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  • joesman1joesman1
    edited September 2012
    In Response to Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:
    Early odds - Not sure who eveyone is but i think Denise Van Outen, although favourite may be a good price Perhaps We could get Orford to post and let us know if she,s any good or done much dancing before I think Nicky Bryne ( Boyzone singer )will be popular with the ladies although they never did much dancing - mainly sitting on stools from what i remember Any other tips, bets  or advice pls post 108.3% Back All Lay All 95.1% Market Activity Denise Van Outen 3.85 £12 3.9 £21 4.2 £49 4.6 £17 5 £2 5.4 £110 Loading Market Activity Louis Smith 4.2 £10 4.3 £15 4.4 £9 4.6 £2 4.7 £3 4.8 £110 Loading Market Activity Kimberley Walsh 6 £7 6.4 £7 6.6 £26 6.8 £9 7 £41 7.2 £2 Loading Market Activity Nicky Byrne 7 £20 7.2 £2 7.4 £72 8 £7 8.6 £2 9.6 £2 Loading Market Activity Victoria Pendleton 9.6 £5 9.8 £15 10 £7 11.5 £7 12.5 £10 13 £10 Loading Market Activity Dani Harmer 13 £4 14 £9 14.5 £19 15 £4 16 £25 17 £8 Loading Market Activity Colin Salmon 20 £5 26 £4 27 £9 38 £2 40 £5   Loading Market Activity Michael Vaughan 27 £5 28 £10 29 £4 38 £3 40 £4 42 £8 Loading Market Activity Richard Arnold 28 £9 65 £8 70 £5 200 £2     Loading Market Activity Sid Owen 40 £8 42 £7 44 £2 95 £2     Loading Market Activity Fern Britton 48 £3 50 £6 55 £2 100 £7     Loading Market Activity Lisa Riley 80 £5 85 £2 90 £4 150 £2 170 £2 180 £6 Loading Market Activity Jerry Hall 80 £2 85 £2 90 £2       Loading Market Activity Johnny Ball 60 £4 70 £2 75 £5 180 £2 190 £2 250 £2 Ps - Theres always someone who the public like to vote for - for comedy value - Anne Widecombe - Russell Grant amongst others as it is at the end of the day it is an entertainment show and they often do a lot better than expected . I,m thinking maybe Lisa Riley (used to be in Emmerdale) . Can,t see her getting lifted up and gliding around a dancefloor My first thoughts are Denise Van Outen and Nicky Bryne in the final and for a dark horse Victoria Pendleton. looking forward to see her in some of those sexy outfits they wear on the show GL to all having a bet
    Posted by MP33

    As soon as I saw the line up Louis Smith stood out a mile to me. Young, good looking, poss' still in his closet (ideal for all the middle aged women who tend to vote on this show), very fit gymnast who will have no problems with all the moves required. 

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  • rosjim1rosjim1
    edited September 2012
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:
    In Response to Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls : As soon as I saw the line up Louis Smith stood out a mile to me. Young, good looking, poss' still in his closet (ideal for all the middle aged women who tend to vote on this show), very fit gymnast who will have no problems with all the moves required. 
    Posted by joesman1
    Van outen stared in chicargo in the west end pro dancer for the win
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  • joesman1joesman1
    edited September 2012
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls : Van outen stared in chicargo in the west end pro dancer for the win
    Posted by rosjim1
    Mr club foot himself. . . What do u know about fleet footedness unless it's how quick can YOU lay down 7's with 13 big blinds!!

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  • joesman1joesman1
    edited September 2012
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls : Van outen stared in chicargo in the west end pro dancer for the win
    Posted by rosjim1
    And I reckon it's about 'likeability' as much as quality of performance in this show. I think Louis Smith will charm the ' old wrinklies' that watch this show. Stick to yer X Factor!! Lol 
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  • 12671267
    edited September 2012

    Pendleton will almost guranteed be the best dancer after a few weeks, as she is by far the most competetive.  Wheather she gets the votes or not is another question.

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  • SlykllistSlykllist
    edited September 2012
    Victoria will win this.

    If she puts her mind to it and decides she wants to win, no-one will beat her.
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  • BELL_POKERBELL_POKER
    edited September 2012
    over the years dancing ability seemingly more important than likeability so Van Outen should be right in the mix
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  • MP33MP33
    edited September 2012
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:
    Pendleton will almost guranteed be the best dancer after a few weeks, as she is by far the most competetive.  Wheather she gets the votes or not is another question.
    Posted by 1267
    I thought this as well. I can,t imagine she,s had much time for dancing in her career but will probably improve more than the others as the show goes on due to her competitive streak. So will probably wait until after first episode to bet on her depending on prices
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  • MP33MP33
    edited September 2012
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls : And I reckon it's about 'likeability' as much as quality of performance in this show. I think Louis Smith will charm the ' old wrinklies' that watch this show. Stick to yer X Factor!! Lol 
    Posted by joesman1
    I was going to start a thread on it but i did it about this time last year before boot camp and most of my bets didn,t even make it to the televised stages so will wait until then and put some odds up. I think the "likeability" factor comes into both these shows although ultimately in Strictly its always been the best dancer who goes on to win in the end
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  • SHANXTASHANXTA
    edited September 2012

    Westlife spent their careers sitting on stools, not sure how this will help him in Strictly. Been off the main scene for a while, not sure how much this will affect his support, to some extent the same can be said about Kimberley.

    1st instincts tell me to go with Louis, hugely in demand after the Olympics, will get tons of female fans, and being a gymnast gives you the impression that he will be able to easily adapt to the dance floor.  Obv the Olympic factor also applies to Victoria, but tbh although i think she's get to the last few, i can't see her winning.

    Can't see any of the outsiders winning so that leaves DVO and Dani, Dani does have a huge following with the kids and with SCD seemingly having an earlier slot this year maybe that will have an effect, whether she can dance or not is another matter.  That leaves DVO, probably the deserved fav, loads of pro experience and well known and liked.

    Despite thinking all of this, I still have absolutely no intention of watching any of it, so probably won't be betting on it either!

    I'll throw my prediction in the hat anyway:

    1st Louis
    2nd DVO
    3rd Victoria

    If anyone knows anywhere you can do a tricast bet i may well combo those up :-)
     
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited September 2012
    Vicky.P is 10/1 on betfair. 

    Not clued up on this back to lay thing, but surely at some point she will be in to 5/1 or lower?

    Free money? (if only I understood how to do it)


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  • MP33MP33
    edited September 2012
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:
    Vicky.P is 10/1 on betfair.  Not clued up on this back to lay thing, but surely at some point she will be in to 5/1 or lower? Free money? (if only I understood how to do it)
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    For example - Put £10 on at 10/1 then wait until she goes in to 5/1

    When she,s 5/1 you can then lay (bet on her not to win at about 5.5) - It will show up in green and your profit will get paid str8 into your account - Best doing a few little £2 bets on the horses and then laying them if the price goes in just to get used to it

    Cheers for pointing out my mistake in OP Shanxta with Nicky Bryne  ( Boyzone - Westlife ) All sounds the same to me     
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited September 2012
    LAY VAN OUTEN ANYWHERE YOU CAN, she will not win as the public do not like people who are "semi pro" dancers already. She has had so much pre publicity about chicago performance she will not win.

    It will be the same as for Gabby Logan who had so much pre publicity that she was a rhthmic gymnast and see where that got her, out first or second.

    One of the sports people will win unl;ess they have two left feet

    Father V 
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  • MP33MP33
    edited September 2012
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:
    LAY VAN OUTEN ANYWHERE YOU CAN, she will not win as the public do not like people who are "semi pro" dancers already. She has had so much pre publicity about chicago performance she will not win. It will be the same as for Gabby Logan who had so much pre publicity that she was a rhthmic gymnast and see where that got her, out first or second. One of the sports people will win unl;ess they have two left feet Father V 
    Posted by vaigret
    Probably not worth it now as even with nearly 3 weeks to go she has slipped to 2nd favourite behind Louis Smith who seems to a firm favourite on this thread as well
     
       
    3.5Louis Smith       Louis Smith 9/49/4 9/49/45/29/49/49/49/49/4 5/2  9/49/42  271/100  24-27
    4.5Denise van Outen       Denise van Outen 37/2 310/37/2310/37/2310/3 11/43 11/410/33  43/10  21-24
    6.0Kimberley Walsh       Kimberley Walsh 44 59/211/49/24454 9/29/2 9/244  47/10  17-20
    8.5Victoria Pendleton       Victoria Pendleton 15/215/2 6767715/277 77 777  37/5  13-16
    9.0Nicky Byrne       Nicky Byrne 76 715/213/277877 87 777  37/5  10-13
    17.0Dani Harmer       Dani Harmer 1412 1614121412141012 1414 161416  147/10  8-11
    26.0Michael Vaughan       Michael Vaughan 2220 2520162016162016 1625 202020  24  2-4
    51.0Sid Owen       Sid Owen 4050 3340505033334033 5040 404050  41  5-7
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited September 2012
    Not back her!!!!Lay her at any odds over 4-1 and you will make money
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  • MP33MP33
    edited October 2012
    Haven,t really been following this but just checked the odds and it seems the odds havent changed that much and seems pretty predictable this year

    Even at 2/1 Louis Smith looks good value and now is probably the best time to back him as he,ll only get shorter imo
          

    Sort By: Fav/Name
    		 
       
    3.0Louis Smith       Louis Smith 15/8  215/87/4 2215/82 2  237/20  223/100   
    4.5Denise van Outen       Denise van Outen 3  7/27/27/2 11/411/411/411/4 11/4  11/43  157/5031/10  
    4.5Kimberley Walsh       Kimberley Walsh 7/2  7/27/23 7/27/27/27/2 7/2  7/27/2  41/10   
    11.0Lisa Riley       Lisa Riley 10  10108 10101010 10  1010  62/556/5  
    17.0Victoria Pendleton       Victoria Pendleton 14  141216 14161214 14  1214  64/556/5  
    17.0Sid Owen       Sid Owen 12  141210 12121212 16  1412  76/573/5  
    21.0Dani Harmer       Dani Harmer 20  202020 16161616 14  1620  2221  
    34.0Colin Salmon       Colin Salmon 33  333333 25332525 33  2833  3736  
    41.0Nicky Byrne       Nicky Byrne 33  252520 25332525 40  2533  2825  
    101.0Fern Britton       Fern Britton 100  100100100 10010080100 50  66100  189183  
    101.0Michael Vaughan       Michael Vaughan 100  1006666 66808066 66  66100  208183  
    126.0Jerry Hall       Jerry Hall 100  125100125 125125125125 125  100100  189164  
    151.0Richard Arnold       Richard Arnold 125  100100100 100125150100 125  100100   
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited October 2012
    The winner will be one in the top four of the betting, especially now the dance off is back so the judges have more say.

    I said earlier Van Outen wouldnt win but she is looking very good although I still have the feeling she wont win the vieweres vote in the end.

    If I was backing anybody it will be Lisa Riley at 10's.

    Reason- she was the obvious BBC "joke" pick but although she is on the big side, she can move. Wouldnt surprise me that the great british public vote for her in big numbers to start with because she is not your obvious dancer and then fall in love with her over the series.  
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  • FLASHJONNYFLASHJONNY
    edited October 2012
    cant see a bloke winning dvo and kimberley walsh way ahead sneaky fancy for dani hamer
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  • MP33MP33
    edited October 2012
     2 suprises this week. Michael Vaughan after been in bottom 3 nailed it and didn,t expect Ricky Butcher to go this week, but with the best score was Louis Smith and still fav

    Still some value in the betting though, although i can,t see past the top 3 in the market

    Biggest mover (literally) has to be Lisa Riley who started at 90,s in OP

    Sort By: Fav/Name
    		 
       
    2.38Louis Smith       Louis Smith 5/45/4 11/8 11/105/45/45/45/45/46/55/45/45/45/4   123/100  26-29
    4.33Denise van Outen       Denise van Outen 10/33 10/3 10/311/4333333310/33   323/100  21-24
    5.0Kimberley Walsh       Kimberley Walsh 44 4 7/24444444444   399/100369/100 17-20
    13.0Lisa Riley       Lisa Riley 912 8 107888878888   62/5  11-14
    17.0Victoria Pendleton       Victoria Pendleton 1414 12 1612141112141212121214   69/5  11-14
    29.0Dani Harmer       Dani Harmer 2225 25 2220202025202020252816   2017 6-8
    41.0Nicky Byrne       Nicky Byrne 3333 33 2228333333333340334028   3534 3-5
    67.0Colin Salmon       Colin Salmon 5040 66 6633504550503366406633   5652 1-3
    76.0Michael Vaughan       Michael Vaughan 4066 66 3340507566505066406650   5646 3-5
    151.0Richard Arnold       Richard Arnold 150150 125 15015010010010010010012540100100   199193 0-0.5
    201.0Fern Britton       Fern Britton 150150 125 20010010010010010010012540100100   170135 0.1-1
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited November 2012
    Just got on Richard to be elimanted fourth at 9-4 after he had danced that awful Foxtrot for 17 points, just hope he doesnt improve in dance off.

    Couldnt resist those odds !!!!!
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited November 2012
    NOTE TO SELF -dont bet heavily on this LOL

    Knew Richard wouldnt get the fans votes and also Colin was in danger as they were not voting for him either. Problem was didnt realise Colin was going to give up when it came to another dance off.

    OH WELL LESSON LEARNED

    Father V
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  • MP33MP33
    edited November 2012
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:
    NOTE TO SELF -dont bet heavily on this LOL Knew Richard wouldnt get the fans votes and also Colin was in danger as they were not voting for him either. Problem was didnt realise Colin was going to give up when it came to another dance off. OH WELL LESSON LEARNED Father V
    Posted by vaigret
    UL - I missed it this week, but the latest markets have it pretty much with 3 in contention

    Louis Smith
    DVO
    Kimberley Walsh

    After watching X factor tho - The best singer (by a mile )went home after the sing off and as Tulisa said its not about who.s the best singer anymore . Its about who connects with the audience more.

    Having said that i think Strictly is a bit more about the actual danbcing rather than the personalitys although it does come into it somewhat     
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited November 2012
    Hi Mp33,

    I agree with you although I have a feeling Lisa Riley might pinch final place although that will be hard if she in a dance off with any of the three you mention.

    As to last week I was sure I had a sure fire bet with Richard to go out

    Father V
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  • MP33MP33
    edited November 2012
    Latest odds - Despite Louis Smith getting lowish scores he,s still a strong 2nd fav so must be getting lots of votes from the public but if he makes it to the final I feel the judges will go with Denise Van Outen who is outclassing everyone at the momnent -  Ps Lisa Riley was 90/1 at start of thread
    Denise van Outen 1111/1011/1011/1011/10111/101111/101111121/20  11/9  32-35
    3.0Louis Smith       Louis Smith 13/813/813/813/813/86/46/47/46/46/47/47/426/4213/833/20  13/7  28-31
    13.0Dani Harmer       Dani Harmer 91091191081211121298991012  19/292/11 12-15
    13.0Kimberley Walsh       Kimberley Walsh 12812101210981010891017/21099  18171/10 14-17
    17.0Lisa Riley       Lisa Riley 161614141412121471614121612161416  171/10157/10 8-11
    41.0Nicky Byrne       Nicky Byrne 4033334033333340253340332525282840  4337 4-6
    67.0Michael Vaughan       Michael Vaughan 4033404040664040453340334033404040  6151
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  • MP33MP33
    edited December 2012
    Just looking through the markets this morning and Denise is still favourite.

    I,m sure i had a bet on her but not sure which site, but if i was looking for a 1-2 or a runner up i think danni Harmer could well be that person. She reminds me of Cheslea Healey last year who just missed out to Harry Judd.

    Len Gooodman, the head judge has critised Louis on a cpl of occasions now , but is a big favourite of Danis as he was of Chelsea Healey last year so i think theres definately some value on Danni coming 2nd ahead of Louis Smith
    2.32 £31 2.36 £83 2.38 £21 2.42 £16 2.46 £49 2.48 £14
    Loading
    Market Activity Louis Smith
    		2.64 £21 2.68 £11 2.7 £30 2.78 £21 2.8 £28 2.82 £53
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    Market Activity Dani Harmer
    		9.8 £2 10 £12 10.5 £27 11.5 £3 12 £13 12.5 £12
    Loading
    Market Activity Kimberley Walsh
    		13 £5 13.5 £2 14.5 £3 16 £2 19 £4 19.5 £7
    Loading
    Market Activity Lisa Riley
    		19 £3 20 £3 21 £17 23 £4 24 £7 42 £5
    Loading
    Market Activity Nicky Byrne
    		44 £2 46 £7 48 £2 60 £7 75 £4 80 £2
    Loading
    Market Activity Michael Vaughan
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited December 2012
    HAVING SAID NO MORE BETS ON THIS I AM DOING SO BADLY ON THE HORSES COULDNT RESIST mICHAEL vughaN TO BE voted off tonight.

    More money down the drain ?
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited December 2012
    NO

    A WIN AT LAST
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  • joesman1joesman1
    edited December 2012
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:
    NO A WIN AT LAST
    Posted by vaigret
    How do u know already Father V?
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited December 2012
    If you go on any of the bookmakers sites on sunday morning they will already have the odds for the next week with the person who has gone out omitted. Easy really. LOL
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  • joesman1joesman1
    edited December 2012
    In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:
    If you go on any of the bookmakers sites on sunday morning they will already have the odds for the next week with the person who has gone out omitted. Easy really. LOL
    Posted by vaigret
    So the 'Sunday Show' is actually filmed on the Sat Night? Why does Brucey 'have it off' then?
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