Time Tourny, what's optimal here?

DOHHHHHHH

lock up slow clock down roi ftw

DOHHHHHHH

Final level of a 30 min game, very close to the end, not that that matters.....

The missing stacks of the players behind, I think one was just under 10xbb and one just over 10xbb.

I think that the limper makes this a fold..... (maybe it's still a shove)

But if utg folds is this a shove or a fold for us?

Plz don't say "no need to flip, lock up a profit etc etc" that's no reason to fold, I'm really not bothered about busting as long as I make the right play.

I want thoughts on wether or not this is a profitable shove long term with, and without a limper.?

I have no specific reads but generally people either call too wide or too tight. I think as it's nearly the last hand, players will be inclined to play too tight here, but I have nothing concrete to prove that.

Any thoughts?

(Is mr/fold an option if the limper folds?)

Cheerz.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Crambo63	Small blind		200.00	200.00	6450.00
MHC	Big blind		400.00	600.00	5300.00
	Your hole cards	2 2
jonfitz	Call		400.00	1000.00	3375.00
DOHHHHHHH	Fold				About 6k
HORNET	Fold				4.5k ish
Crambo63	Call		200.00	1200.00	6250.00
MHC	Check

IDONKCALLU

meaning fold

unknown_username

Hi Dohhhhh

I don't know how many chips you have so what monetary value 400 chips is worth but maybe the set mine was worth looking at IMO.

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: Time Tourny, what's optimal here?:

Hi Dohhhhh I don't know how many chips you have so what monetary value 400 chips is worth but maybe the set mine was worth looking at IMO.
Posted by profman15

Oh wow! ha how could I forget my own stack?

I have around 6k (15xbb) sorry. 

percival09

LOL you so flopped a 2 didnt you. 

unknown_username

OOOOO that set mine is tempting Dohhhhh for less than 8% of your stack plus there has been a limp before you so may get through. However i would fold if any resistance before flop.

Lambert180

Don't ever set mine IMO. I think it's a shove. You get alot of limping in TTs at all stages, but just like the money bubble in MTTs, not many will be wanting to put their stack in the middle so close to the end of the game when they have money locked up if they fold.

You're gonna get alot of folds, and as Percival said recently, flipping is +EV if there's dead money in the pot.

pr1nnyraid

Seeing as it's a timed tourney and payout is directly proportionate to chip count you can evaluate the hand purely on cEV.. Same as a cash game. 

You are risking ~15bbs to win 2.5bbs. So if you shove it needs to get through 5/6 times to be profitable purely on the merit of the shove (not including your equity in the pot when called). This is worst case scenario as that is playing your relative stack if called by the player who covers you, relative stack against any of the others is less, which means you are risking less to win same amount. 

So if they are folding ~84% of hands then the shove is profitable with any 2. 

Say you get called by 66+ AQ+ (not sure what % of hands this reps), then your equity against this range (again no stove so cant tell). I'd guess the numbers would strongly back up a shove anyway. 

Just a case of judging how often utg limp calls his stack. how you feel he's been playing and whether you have been active enough for him to limp call hands wider. 

long story short. SHOVE imo. 

grantorino

Jam it in his eye