Poker odds help - 23 outs

Kevilfish

On the flop;

player 1 has - 2c 2h

player 2 has - Qh Kh

Flop is Tc Th Jh

player 2's outs are;

Ac As Ad - Aces for an Ace high straight

Kc Ks Kd - Kings for 2 pair, Kings and Tens

Qc Qs Qd - Queens for 2 pair, Queens and Tens

Jc Js Jd - Jacks for 2 pair (higher kicker), Jacks and Tens

9c 9s 9d - Nines for a King high straight

Ah 9h - Ace or Nine of hearts for a straight flush
8h 7h 6h 5h 4h 3h - 3-8 of hearts for flush (not the 2 as P1 holds this card)

This is 23 outs, with 2 cards to come.

Each card has 2.2% chance of hitting = 50.6% but there's 2 cards to come which means you double it = 101.2%???

When you put this example into a poker odds calculator, the odds are P1 28.08% - 0.91% - 71.01% P2.

How would you calculate the exact odds of winning a hand like this one? 



Using basic logic I'd have thought you'd split each card group like I have done above and for each group you then calculate the re-draw possibilty for the full house, 2 Two's and 2 Ten's. So would this be 8.8% of each of the group's percentage except the straight flush and the 2 pair (it would need to only be 4.4% for the 2pr. as the Ten would also improve player 2.

Am I on the right lines?

I'd also need to include a "blank" turn card (3-8, non-heart), this then adds 2 more outs for P2 for the river.

Help!

OMahonyO

I cant remember the exact formula, but there is one to work out % with no of outs.  As a general rule, times ur outs by 2 for % with 1 card to come and times by 4 with 2 cards to come.  This is pretty accurate when uve not got loads of outs, but when ur outs are something like, an oesfd with 2 overs or something, there is a further calc to do.

Cant remember but im sure it involves the number 8 lol..

Anyway try googling it, it should be somewhere out there

apollo_11

Way beyond my brain to do this. I will leave it to merenovice to sort this one out.

diablo_pez

23 outs im fav on the flop and 50/50 after the turn that's about as in-depth as i would think...!

scrumdown

got 23 outs  dived  23outs  in to 47  remaining unseen cards  so his near as dam it 2 to 1  to hit to get your % double add  2  calling all day long with them odds

OMahonyO

I found this



http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/4051/96109346.jpg

apollo_11

Assuming this is a six seater table that is full, The stats that are quoted by the poker odds calculator are about right.
there are 38 cards left in the pack, 23 cards which are good, 15 of these you don't want to see, so that works out about 70-30.

Hogg321

i came across this before and had to have a good think about it! gone are the simple times your outs by 2 and then times it again by 2 for turn + river!

Loki-Rogy

On the turn, you have 23/45 good cards, but of course any 10 or 2 gives P1 a full house, so 4/45 beat you.
So 51.1% you hit the turn, 8.9% they hit the turn, 40% both miss.

So if you hit the turn, you still need him to miss the river, now 4/44 = 9%
So you hitting the turn and missing the river is 51.1% * 91% = 46.5%
Of course, this is slightly high, as there are combinations where you hit and still don't win, a non-heart J counts as a hit, but following it up with a non-heart Ace and you both have 2 pair, Jacks, Tens and an Ace kicker.

Those 40% you miss the turn, you need to hit the river, now 23/44 = 52.2%
So the odds of that are 20.9%, making a total of 67.4%
Of course, there are more dirty ways for you to win, runner runner pair will counterfeit his pocket 2s
Runner runner tens would be in particular horrible.

If in doubt, just ask PokerStove!
P2 wins 71% post-flop
With a blank on the turn (I used 8s), P2 wins 56.8%

Kevilfish

In Response to Re: Poker odds help - 23 outs:

Of course, this is slightly high, as there are combinations where you hit and still don't win, a non-heart J counts as a hit, but following it up with a non-heart Ace and you both have 2 pair, Jacks, Tens and an Ace kicker.Posted by Loki-Rogy

An Ace would give player 2 the straight, I was thinking of the split possibilities as well, the only ones are running Jacks for JJJTT on the board or running Jack, Ten for another full house TTTJJ.

Kevilfish

In Response to Re: Poker odds help - 23 outs:

On the turn, you have 23/45 good cards, but of course any 10 or 2 gives P1 a full house, so 4/45 beat you. So 51.1% you hit the turn, 8.9% they hit the turn, 40% both miss. So if you hit the turn, you still need him to miss the river, now 4/44 = 9% So you hitting the turn and missing the river is 51.1% * 91% = 46.5% Of course, this is slightly high, as there are combinations where you hit and still don't win, a non-heart J counts as a hit, but following it up with a non-heart Ace and you both have 2 pair, Jacks, Tens and an Ace kicker. Those 40% you miss the turn, you need to hit the river, now 23/44 = 52.2% So the odds of that are 20.9%, making a total of 67.4% Of course, there are more dirty ways for you to win, runner runner pair will counterfeit his pocket 2s Runner runner tens would be in particular horrible. If in doubt, just ask PokerStove! P2 wins 71% post-flop With a blank on the turn (I used 8s), P2 wins 56.8%
Posted by Loki-Rogy

Thank you for this, it's definitely helped me understand how to calculate this type of hand, I'd never actually seen the 23/45, 4/45 way you've done here, I've always went the 2.2 x 2 way, but that only calculates outs rather than odds.

Loki-Rogy

My bad with the Ace for split.

Assuming you magically know for certain what Mr. Villain has, there are 45 cards on the turn.
23/45 as a percentage is 23/45*100, which is the same as 23*(100/45). The 100/45 is the 2.2% you get when counting outs.

But you should look for PokerStove online - great for puzzles like this

Loki-Rogy

Pokerstove says there are 9 split pots out of the 990 potential ways this hand finishes...
That would be 1st card being either a 10 (2/45) followed by a Jack (3/44) =0.3%, but double it, as there are the same times it would come Jack followed by then = 0.6%
1st card being a J (3/45), followed by another Jack (2/44) = 0.3%

=0.9% = 9/990

Good maths stuff!

bellamy04

The way iv been taught is say i have Ac,6c  flops comes at 4d.6h,7c
My outs are two more 6s, 11 more clubs, and 3 As so you have 19outs you times tht by 4 which is 72% you then +1  so that takes you to 73% but because you had over 9outs you subtract 9 from your % so 73% - 9= so your End % is 64% so you have 32% of hitting the turn and 32% of hitting the river is 32%
                   

bellamy04

its the 4 n 2 rule so wen the turn comes out u only times it by 2

Loki-Rogy

In Response to Re: Poker odds help - 23 outs:

The way iv been taught is say i have Ac,6c  flops comes at 4d.6h,7c My outs are two more 6s, 11 more clubs, and 3 As so you have 19outs you times tht by 4 which is 72% you then +1  so that takes you to 73% but because you had over 9outs you subtract 9 from your % so 73% - 9= so your End % is 64% so you have 32% of hitting the turn and 32% of hitting the river is 32%                    
Posted by bellamy04

11 clubs? There's 2 in your hand and one on the flop - that's 3 so there's 10 left in the deck, of which you need 2 for the flush. Plus 2 sixes, 3 aces and '11' clubs make 16 outs, not 19.

Not sure who taught you, but I hope you didn't pay for that advice!