8NL - Thin Value on River?

Lambert180

Same villian as the other hand. Looking back, I'd forgot that his 3bet pre was a min 3bet which probably would have put me off value betting. Just check/fold? Or do you check/call a small bet?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
skyjocker	Small blind		£0.04	£0.04	£3.01
TheRat1	Big blind		£0.08	£0.12	£0.84
	Your hole cards	9 9
Lambert180	Raise		£0.16	£0.28	£7.80
JINTY	Call		£0.16	£0.44	£11.33
X	Raise		£0.24	£0.68	£7.20
knight0101	Fold
skyjocker	Call		£0.20	£0.88	£2.81
TheRat1	Fold
Lambert180	Call		£0.08	£0.96	£7.72
JINTY	Call		£0.08	£1.04	£11.25
Flop
		4 4 8
skyjocker	Check
Lambert180	Check
JINTY	Check
X	Bet		£0.52	£1.56	£6.68
skyjocker	Fold
Lambert180	Call		£0.52	£2.08	£7.20
JINTY	Fold
Turn
		8
Lambert180	Check
X	Check
River
		6
Lambert180	Bet		£0.55	£2.63	£6.65
X	Call		£0.55	£3.18	£6.13
Lambert180	Show	9 9
X	Show	A A
X	Win	Two Pairs, Aces and 8s	£2.94		£9.07

yb

yeah definitely not value betting in a 3bet pot, c/f river imo

edit: also, raise more pre

Curt360x27

His line is sooooo weak post flop i'm b/f the river most of the time here looking to get calls from A high maybe K high, 55 and 77.

I think c/f would be pretty awful tbh.

yb

i don't think so, he has an overpair that didn't bet the turn because they were scared of an 8 a lot of the time, especially if he then bets the river.

PiAnOpLaYa

Most the time I think I check/call the river. 

Why min raise pre? 

pr1nnyraid

Basically you aren’t in a very good spot to get value..  It’s probably tight between how many small pairs & A / K / Q hi hands they have Vs overpairs. The value from the small prs & A/K/Q hi hands comes from them checking back with their assumed ‘showdown value’. And obv there is no value Vs overpairs as we are behind-

Options are

a)      c/c – seems standard, i don’t like it as he vbets better and checks back worse and rarely bluffs

b)      b/f – You may get called by A hi but think overpairs call just as often, also these overpairs may check back river anyway so you could have saved a bet.

c)       b/c – Terrible he would VERY rarely be bluffing.

d)      c/f – perhaps best option, conservative but good as you win against a lot of hands he checks back and lose against most hands he goes for thin value with.

e)      c/r – Might not even have entered your mind but would be very hard for them to call. You have the benefit of when he checks back you win most times & when he goes for thin value with an overpair he can literally never call. Its simple -You can still have an 8 and he can basically never have an 8.

So I like the big daddy C/R. But only if you have decent rep Vs villain. Keep them on their toes

BorinLoner

I don't think we can credibly check-raise the river, representing an 8. Would we really check the second-nuts on the river after the check-check on the turn? We'd expect the river to be checked back too often.

That's not to say it wouldn't work against alot of opponents, just probably not against the better ones.

I agree with check-folding for the reasons detailed. Can't see him betting with worse. I suppose it can be a bet-fold but the pre-flop action means we're only hoping he has AK as the rest of his range for this raise probably has us beat. AK is also probably alot less likely than big pairs because of the size of the pre-flop 3-bet. I doubt 55, 77 or many Kx's 3-bet pre-flop.

Yeah, I think it's a check-fold. I can't really ellaborate too much on what's been said by others. It's a good question PianoPlaya asks about the pre-flop min-raise, though.. What's going on there, Lambert?

pr1nnyraid

In Response to Re: 8NL - Thin Value on River?:

I don't think we can credibly check-raise the river, representing an 8. Would we really check the second-nuts on the river after the check-check on the turn? We'd expect the river to be checked back too often. That's not to say it wouldn't work against alot of opponents, just probably not against the better ones. I agree with check-folding for the reasons detailed. Can't see him betting with worse. I suppose it can be a bet-fold but the pre-flop action means we're only hoping he has AK as the rest of his range for this raise probably has us beat. AK is also probably alot less likely than big pairs because of the size of the pre-flop 3-bet. I doubt 55, 77 or many Kx's 3-bet pre-flop. Yeah, I think it's a check-fold. I can't really ellaborate too much on what's been said by others. It's a good question PianoPlaya asks about the pre-flop min-raise, though.. What's going on there, Lambert?
Posted by BorinLoner

Okay, I’d say more likely to work against a better player as a bad player just goes “I don’t fold aces, EVER”

 

A good player would think about the streets played and realise that a competent player could expect them to value bet an over pair on the river, therefore could justify a c/r. They would also know calling a min 3bet keeps every single 8 in our range. Was just an idea and the only way we can win the pot whether they check behind or go for thin value. 

BorinLoner

Granted, the worst players just call us as well and there are more bad players than good.

Perhaps I overestimate some players but if I was holding the AA I would never think, after the check on the turn, that anyone would check this river with an 8, since my range looks like overpairs and AK. A bet is almost always called by those overpairs and probably an Ace whereas a check perhaps doesn't see a value bet, certainly not from the Ace-high hands. I'd think that a player with an 8 would like to set their own price, rather than let me bet for thin'ish value from 77, 99, etc...

I would be thinking that you would not check the river with an 8 and you wouldn't check-raise with just a 4. I would call. Maybe I'm an awesome player or maybe I'm a calling station but it wouldn't make sense with an 8 or a 4, as far as I can see it. I might be more worried about 66.

Lambert180

Expecting to get ripped apart now for saying this lol but PianoPlaya and Borin asked so I will answer...

I min-raised under the flop because it makes it cheaper for me to set mine, I can get away alot cheaper if there's massive action after me (cos I'm UTG) and it makes it a lot cheaper and easier for me to get the odds to call when people's 3bets will be smaller.

I know that I'm mostly going to be binning my 99 post-flop if I don't hit, especially OOP. On the right flops I will be c-betting and my c-bet will be cheaper due to the pot being smaller. I also know that I shouldn't have too much trouble getting money in the middle if I do hit against most opponents, so I'm not too worried about not having built the pot pre-flop.

I see it in a similar light to if you're short handed in a shallow stacked SnG/MTT, say I have 10xBB, against a super bad opponent, I will just min-raise with AA, because I know they won't realise that any raise which isn't a shove from a 10xBB is pretty fishy, and I'll get more value long-term. Against a good opponent, I'd be shoving because that's what I'd be doing with 22+ etc etc and so I wouldn't want to change my sizing, but against bad opponents I think it's fine and I will get more value from min-raising the AA long-term IMO. Obviously difference scenario, but same mindset that sometimes less optimal plays v good opponents can be more optimal v bad opponents.

Is my thinking completely wrong here? I'm more than up for criticism lol, so if I am wrong about this, please tell me why.

pr1nnyraid

In Response to Re: 8NL - Thin Value on River?:

Granted, the worst players just call us as well and there are more bad players than good. Perhaps I overestimate some players but if I was holding the AA I would never think, after the check on the turn, that anyone would check this river with an 8, since my range looks like overpairs and AK. A bet is almost always called by those overpairs and probably an Ace whereas a check perhaps doesn't see a value bet, certainly not from the Ace-high hands. I'd think that a player with an 8 would like to set their own price, rather than let me bet for thin'ish value from 77, 99, etc... I would be thinking that you would not check the river with an 8 and you wouldn't check-raise with just a 4. I would call. Maybe I'm an awesome player or maybe I'm a calling station but it wouldn't make sense with an 8 or a 4, as far as I can see it. I might be more worried about 66.
Posted by BorinLoner

I'm aware of the logic.. But say you have ace hi and get c/r (maybe you wouldnt bet but pretend you did). Then would you call? 

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: 8NL - Thin Value on River?:

In Response to Re: 8NL - Thin Value on River? : I'm aware of the logic.. But say you have ace hi and get c/r (maybe you wouldnt bet but pretend you did). Then would you call? 
Posted by pr1nnyraid

I wouldn't bet Ace-high on the river. If I did, I'd be confused if I was raised. I'd like to say I'd never call but I'd probably do that stupid thing of thinking he's just trying to push me off a chop and call... but I'd only be doing it out of sheer stubborness. lol

I really hope I wouldn't bet with just Ace-high. I make no guarantees about my actual ability at the table.

PiAnOpLaYa

In Response to Re: 8NL - Thin Value on River?:

Expecting to get ripped apart now for saying this lol but PianoPlaya and Borin asked so I will answer... I min-raised under the flop because it makes it cheaper for me to set mine, I can get away alot cheaper if there's massive action after me (cos I'm UTG) and it makes it a lot cheaper and easier for me to get the odds to call when people's 3bets will be smaller. I know that I'm mostly going to be binning my 99 post-flop if I don't hit, especially OOP. On the right flops I will be c-betting and my c-bet will be cheaper due to the pot being smaller. I also know that I shouldn't have too much trouble getting money in the middle if I do hit against most opponents, so I'm not too worried about not having built the pot pre-flop. I see it in a similar light to if you're short handed in a shallow stacked SnG/MTT, say I have 10xBB, against a super bad opponent, I will just min-raise with AA, because I know they won't realise that any raise which isn't a shove from a 10xBB is pretty fishy, and I'll get more value long-term. Against a good opponent, I'd be shoving because that's what I'd be doing with 22+ etc etc and so I wouldn't want to change my sizing, but against bad opponents I think it's fine and I will get more value from min-raising the AA long-term IMO. Obviously difference scenario, but same mindset that sometimes less optimal plays v good opponents can be more optimal v bad opponents. Is my thinking completely wrong here? I'm more than up for criticism lol, so if I am wrong about this, please tell me why.
Posted by Lambert180

I don't think its going to a huge difference at this level but as start to progress up the levels even average players will start to pick up on this. 

Do you min raise with anything other than a pp? If you don't your giving away a lot of information to your opponents. Min raise = wants to see cheap flop. Then If you come out betting strong you are playing your hand face up. 

You should Make the same bet with all your range most the time but you already know that! 

BorinLoner

Lambert, if you're styling your play so much towards beating weak players, better players are just going to own you. They'll see your betting patterns and narrow your range down to very close to your actual hand. There's another thread on here where you talk about a guy who you feel always has it when he gets it in against you and maybe this is why. If you're 6-max against four weak players and one good one and you're playing in this fashion, that one good player is at a table with five weak players because he can see the patterns you use to exploit the other weak players. As a result he can exploit you very easily.

I think you should make your bet-sizes as though you're up against a table of Lolufold, Andrew1947, Lol_raise, Beaneh, etc. It might mean you make a little bit less against the weak players but you should lose alot less against the good ones. It will also prepare you to move up the levels in future, which is something you can't do if you're varying your raise sizes so wildly.

How many other hands are you making this min-raise with? I doubt it's very many.

Lambert180

I know you're right

I'm just such a massive fish really. I am trying to cut these things out of my game - adjusting to beating weak players. I am intending on moving up the levels as you may know if you've read my diary and I would never do these kinda things at higher levels but I should get out of the habit right now.

FWIW, I do min-raise with more than just small/medium PPs, but that was just UTG. I wouldn't be doing that in later positions. But yeah no excuses anyway. As I'm sure you know, I'm very disciplined and always looking to improve, so I will now make it a point to completely cut this stupidity out from my game from this day onward. So please make a big point of it if you ever catch me posting a hand again where I make this mistake.

(Re-reading the above, it sounds a bit sarcastic in bits IMO but it's really not meant to be lol)