KK v ACE ON FLOP DEBATE.

devonfish5

OK,SO THE DEV'S BACK....

had a how shall i describe it,a heated debate with a couple of regular players/forum contributors a couple of sundays' ago regarding a KK dym hand over in the Poker Clinic section.

i gave my opinion on how i would have played the hand.
i stated that IN MY OPINION an Ace would flop against KK ABOUT 50% of the time.

now....
yes,i know all about what the percentage is,or is perceived to be,and i was reminded of it,in no uncertain terms...fair enough.

another player who shall also be nameless,said that he would look into my theory,and get back to me....i'm still waiting.
so,i've today just done a tiny sample test whilst playing and you might just be surprised at the result.    

and i can say this with complete honesty,otherwise what would i be achieving by lying?that....of the 12 times that i saw a player(myself included) holding KK  that when a flop was seen,an Ace flopped 6 times and didn't 6 times.

why not try this test yourself sometime.i would be interested in YOUR RESULT.

i am not posting this up as any conclusive evidence.
i am also in no way saying that anything is irregular here.
i am also not intending this as a personal attack towards anyone.
i am saying that this is my observation and therefore MY OPINION.

i made a statement,and that is all,"I DIDN'T KILL ANYONE!!!"  lol

(* *)
   ^
dev
                                

Payney1978

Hi Dev, I haven't seen any of the previous posts you refer to, but all I would say is 12 hands is a very small sample size. 

I know it often seems like an Ace flops when you have kings but I still do a little fist pump whenever I'm lucky to get dealt them  

DOHHHHHHH

Maybe people had KK on low flops 137 times during your games that you didn't see

GaryQQQ

Team51 did a similar survey on a private Facebook page.

We counted how often KK won aipf against any hand. From 141 recorded instances pocket KK won 81 times and lost 60 times, so a win rate of 57%.

To be honest the result of our survey was fairly meaningless for two reasons; once again 141 is only a small sample, also our opponents range is very hard to quantify, obvious it's much tighter than any two cards and will include a high proportion of AA and Ax hands.

In fact our survey went some way to debunking the team perception that pocket KK is the unluckiest hand on Sky Poker in aipf situations.

NColley

I'm afraid that opinion has no bearing on situations like this. You also cannot start using others peoples hands as an example because you do not see the times they had KK and got no action.

The statistical chance of an A flopping when you hold KK is always the same and is ~ 23%

Pipunch

lolworthy sample size of 12.

100,000 sample hands where a flop is seen and one player holds KK is needed before it serves as any kind of proof.

100,000 sample hands where KK is held 1000 times is only actually a sample size of 1000.

jonjo75

"I am also in no way saying that anything is irregular here".


Sorry Dev but That is exactly what the post is saying. If you believe it is 50% then you are saying SKY is dodgy. You can not have it both ways.

percival09

I believe I am the player who was supposed to be keeping track.. I did the first few days but then stopped. To begin with yeah a few aces dropped otf but it's definitely evened itself out, there's been numerous times now where I've had low boards w/ kk. But even my sample size isnt big enough - youd need 100k+ hands to even justify such a debate

LOL_RAISE

142 samples of me getting KK in preflop  i won £11k with expectation at £8k

confirmed rogged

JingleMa

Hi Dev,

I'm genuinely surprised you have posted this - it is just a classic case of being "results orientated".

If you toss a kosher standard coin 10 times & it lands on heads 8 of those times - this DOES NOT mean there is an 80% chance of it landing on heads on the 11th toss.

One of the fundamentals of poker is not to let results affect your future decisions, but I'm sure you already know this. Also, as jonjo75 says - if you REALLY BELIEVE there is a 50% chance of an ace flopping when someone holds KK - then you are also claiming the game is not legit.

Gl on the tables as always.

Jingle.

Lambert180

Thank you JingleMa and JonJo, that's exactly what I said (I was one of the regs in the original debate lol).

There are gonna be SO many times when someone raises with KK, c-bets on 24Tr, everyone folds and you'd never know he had KK to be able to count it.

The thing that baffles me is if you really believe this, why you play 1000s of games on here. If I knew/thought Sky or any site was not legit, I wouldn't play it on full stop.

Dazler

its anoying when you have KK and someone calls with a rag A and hits but think of it this way, if all the money is in pre and you hold kk, if you had a player with AK AQ AJ they may very well call you if everyone folds bar 1 and he calls you with a rag A it would suggest that no one else holds a big A but all the low to mid end cards instead which kinda gives the Rag A more of a chance as more than likely the other Aces are still in the deck and less of the mid to low end cards are in the deck. This isnt definately the way it always goes just a thought process to how ks arnt maybe as strong as you may think. After all they are only a pair, and are esp weaker the more people in the hand as draws are more likely to hit also. If you have say 3 callers with an A your looking much stronger! Pk ks seem huge pre and are strong post. Its one of those hands like pk As that you either make a lot or lose a lot. I find it easier to play them see the flop turn and river keep pots controlled with them and if im in a flip make sure its either hu or i have bigger stack than them. The amount of times ive held pk Ks and an A comes on the flop and it feels like this happens all the time but i also find that there still ahead too and people have not got the A, i used to automaticly think they had it but they dont! its a mind thing to overcome and a lot of players see pk Ks think its going to win no matter what unless its against pk As, and players cant put them down or just ship um all in. so you have to play them diffently depending on the scenario.

Largearce

I agree with what dohhhh says, basically, how mays times does KK win but not show.......

rancid

Seriously this is a waste of time

when you have a sample size of 100,000 then lets talk or even a 1000

Dazler

In Response to Re: KK v ACE ON FLOP DEBATE.:

Seriously this is a waste of time when you have a sample size of 100,000 then lets talk or even a 1000
Posted by rancid

even with a sample size of 100 or 10000 it wouldnt work because the first time one would win more than the over the second time the other might and so on. Depends on how the player played it / was it showdown / was it all in pre / was it a bluff ect ect.

devonfish5

as i said,it started out as an observation really.
i am not accusing anyone of anything as i've already said,
i think words are trying to be put into my mouth,witch is a shame on you.
if i thought that on-line poker was rigged,then i would say so,and obviously wouldn't play.
this as i've said is my opinion,that's all.
you can take what i've said anyway you wish.


dev
ps,
clearly u r all right and i'm wrong,so let's leave it at that.

rancid

In Response to Re: KK v ACE ON FLOP DEBATE.:

In Response to Re: KK v ACE ON FLOP DEBATE. : even with a sample size of 100 or 10000 it wouldnt work because the first time one would win more than the over the second time the other might and so on. Depends on how the player played it / was it showdown / was it all in pre / was it a bluff ect ect.
Posted by Dazler

very true ) when you hold KK you would have to ensure you see a flop everytimr to record all the data correctly +_

So the one constant would have to be that you see a flop
so you can never raise or 3 bet KK  -  just incase they fold

very unrealistic data collection but still possible if anyone can be bothered - so pointless )

if you can not accept the probabilities in poker then maybe you should not play the game )
At the sametime anyone can try and disprove the theory, or prove in certain enviroments that the probabilities are not true - just need a  lot of time and you need to set the correct conditions

No one is going to agree with you Dev because it goes against the fundamental of the game
Like saying the earth is flat )

good luck

Pipunch

In Response to Re: KK v ACE ON FLOP DEBATE.:

as i said,it started out as an observation really. i am not accusing anyone of anything as i've already said, i think words are trying to be put into my mouth,witch is a shame on you. if i thought that on-line poker was rigged,then i would say so,and obviously wouldn't play. this as i've said is my opinion,that's all. you can take what i've said anyway you wish. dev ps, clearly u r all right and i'm wrong,so let's leave it at that.
Posted by devonfish5

this.

no online poker is rigged. i asked simuk on twitter if he thought 'the big one' had juiced up flops because i'd seen on youtube and stuff that it did look incredibly juiced for action, but it just isn't.

they get audited and part of that is making sure their percentages add up over huge sample sizes.

long term KK will ALWAYS win it's true %.

my first home game i had KK and my old man raises into me on a flop of AAK. you'd better believe i shoved on his aces full. these things sometimes happen again and again and again live. look up Darvin Moon to see incredible run good.

pilgrim07

Got it!! Nice level Dev!

scotty77

Say you went on a hot stream on DYMs of say 19 wins out of 20.  Would you think that the sample could then be applied to try and figure out a win rate for say 10k games.

Just one of those things and variance is variance.

devonfish5

i'm going to have to concede defeat here,obviously.
this whole debate began by me giving another player advice on a situation involving KK during a DYM hand that he had played.
i casually stated that from my previous experience of having just played several thousand DYM hands myself that i thought that an ACE seemed to flop ABOUT 50% of the time.
it was not meant to be an exact figure it was simply my observation,that was all.
i think i have tried explaining this now on a number of occasions.
yes,i agree that over several 10000000 hands you may well get a true percentage reading.

i did not post anything up that was meant to be detrimental to anyone or sky poker,and i most certainly was NOT  implying or inferring that anything was rigged,as some of you are clearly implying.

i hope that this clarifies things from myself,and i hope that is the end of the matter,as i have no intention of making any further remarks on this subject.

dev