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Equity Calculation - what I am doing wrong?

edited October 2012 in The Poker Clinic

Hand 1:  Kd 9h
Hand 2: 3h 5h

Board: 5d Kc 4d 2h

Now to me, Hand 2 wins if:

4 Aces = straight
4 6's = straight
2 5's = trips
3 3's = 2 pair

So 13 outs

Using rule of 2 approximation = approx 26%

or, more accurately, 13/44 = 29.5%.


However, running numerous times on Poker Stove and it keeps coming out at between 21 and 22% for Hand 2.

What stupid mistake have I made on this occasion?  :)



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