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Facing small bet on river with A-high. How often do I have to be right?

jugglegeekjugglegeek
edited October 2012 in The Poker Clinic
I have a pretty specific read on this player that a small bet is likely to be a bluff. I'm pretty certain that the player has AK or AQ since they seem to bet bigger for value with actual hands. If he has AK then we split the pot (I lose 35p in rake) and if he has AQ then I win £9.11. If he has any pair I lose £1.20.

Is there some way of working out how often I have to be right for this to be a profitable call. I seem to remember reading that to call a 50% pot bet on the river you have to be right 1/3 of the time to break even.

[edit] Probably help if I post the hand history
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
SB Small blind   £0.05 £0.05 £3.99
BB Big blind   £0.10 £0.15 £10.99
  Your hole cards
  • A
  • K
     
jugglegeek Raise   £0.30 £0.45 £13.01
MP Fold        
CO Fold        
BTN Fold        
SB Fold        
BB
 Raise   £1.00 £1.45 £9.99
jugglegeek Raise   £2.20 £3.65 £10.81
BB Call   £1.40 £5.05 £8.59
Flop
   
  • 7
  • J
  • 9
     
BB Check        
jugglegeek Check        
Turn
   
  • 2
     
BB Bet   £1.20 £6.25 £7.39
jugglegeek Call   £1.20 £7.45 £9.61
River
   
  • 5
     
BB
 Bet   £1.20 £8.65 £6.19
jugglegeek Call   £1.20 £9.85 £8.41
           
           
           
           
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Comments

  • FlashFlushFlashFlush
    edited October 2012
    I think he has a PP below J's. IMO he is getting tangled up whether to value bet or block bet (Or he may not have a clue what he is doing) It just looks to me like he has something but really doesn't want you to come firing in with a £5-£6 bet. Most the time A high would be good is if he hasn't bet the turn.

    If you don't think he is a complete station then possibly a shove is the best move here?? That may be stupid, I doubt I would think of doing it myself at the time, but looking back a 2nd time it has to be fold or shove maybe... kind of... not sure
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  • BorinLonerBorinLoner
    edited October 2012
    It's quite easy to work out the break-even on a hand...

    You simply take the amount you have to put in: £1.20
    Divide it by the amount in the middle: £8.65
    Then multiply it by 100.

    £1.20 / £8.65 x 100 = 13.9%

    So your hand needs to win 13.9% of the time to make the call break-even.

    You don't need to be precise though. If you're getting roughly 7:1 pot odds, as here, you need to win roughly one time in eight to break even. That's not taking rake into account, of course.

    Ignore this.
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  • bassripperbassripper
    edited October 2012
    percentage pot odds r actully total pot ammount

    1.20/9.85*100

    taking into acount the ammount in the middle is for fractional odds i think
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  • BorinLonerBorinLoner
    edited October 2012
    In Response to Re: Facing small bet on river with A-high. How often do I have to be right?:
    percentage pot odds r actully total pot ammount 1.20/9.85*100 taking into acount the ammount in the middle is for fractional odds i think
    Posted by bassripper
    Yeah, that was stupid of me. You're right.
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  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop
    edited October 2012
    Being right more time than you are not seems to be the most profitable way of playing..................
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