Thoughts?

bearlyther

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceBombadierSmall blind 100.00100.005710.00MYTBig blind 200.00300.009740.00 Your hole cardsKJ   Manc99Fold    bearlytherRaise 400.00700.0011235.00............Call 400.001100.0013495.00Hornet80Fold    BombadierFold    MYTCall 200.001300.009540.00Flop  895   MYTCheck    bearlytherBet 800.002100.0010435.00..............Raise 2400.004500.0011095.00

TPTP123

depends on player but against most players i'm shipping flop and doing a "call me" dance. 

Lambert180

Yeah just ship it.

GELDY

you're behind - fancy your luck punk :-)

HYPETING

Never shipping here with over 50bb, if you ship it looks just like what you have.

 

Just spewy IMO.

Flat and re-evaluate on turn.

rancid

I feel a bit cold and tired

huuuuume

readless a shove looks spewy to me.  you have only invested ~10% of your stack and dont need to risk the whole stack.  think you can find a better spot

beaneh

fold/call/jam all options. depends on player, field quality etc etc what part of the tournament you're at etc.

bearlyther

Against a good player 200 people left or something like that

beaneh

In Response to Re: Thoughts?:

Against a good player 200 people left or something like that
Posted by bearlyther

'good'

can he be bluffing, does he ever c/r fold. 

if he's never bluffing you can bet call and fold turns you brick, hope he maybe does rando c/r checks. 

easiest thing to do is jam it in and hold vs a lower FD.

TPTP123

Maybe shipping is high variance but so far no one has actually given a better line to take or a decent rationale as to why. That doesnt mean shipping is right but at least detail why shipping is bad!!!! 

We have the most fold equity on flop based on stacksizes (plus some added backdoor turn equity) and yeh our hand looks like a draw but villain can't stand the heat when we ship.  if his a phenom and can look us up with A9o or A8o then yeah never ship

Folding is ridic weak passive.  Calling is more spew then shipping imo, unless we have a solid balanced c/r plan for the turn BEFORE we call 1600 but we need good reads on villain for this kinda turn FPS. When he raises flop like this most players are virtually never checking behind turn imo. 

FWIW some other factors are very very important, like level of buy in, how many places pay, where we sit in the leaderboard, how close the bubble is, if we have a super good seat and chewing chips up, etc.. 

beaneh

In Response to Re: Thoughts?:

Maybe shipping is high variance but so far no one has actually given a better line to take or a decent rationale as to why. That doesnt mean shipping is right but at least detail why shipping is bad!!!!  We have the most fold equity on flop based on stacksizes (plus some added backdoor turn equity) and yeh our hand looks like a draw but villain can't stand the heat when we ship.  if his a phenom and can look us up with A9o or A8o then yeah never ship Folding is ridic weak passive.  Calling is more spew then shipping imo, unless we have a solid balanced c/r plan for the turn BEFORE we call 1600 but we need good reads on villain for this kinda turn FPS. When he raises flop like this most players are virtually never checking behind turn imo.  FWIW some other factors are very very important, like level of buy in, how many places pay, where we sit in the leaderboard, how close the bubble is, if we have a super good seat and chewing chips up, etc.. 
Posted by TPTP123

no antes comp, if good player, he wont be outright bluffing so we probably have little fold equity. if he's c/r calling off worse draws and weak 1 pairs hands we have really good equity against then cool if not we can probably use our stack better calling flop and playing turns and potentially folding and having 30bb left in a no antes structure where we figure to have an edge rather than just go well i've hit big so i'm all in lets not think about our opponents hand.

if he can c/r fold a medium pair or can c/r call worse hands or can check raise and c/f turns or w/e thenthat should affect how we continue. against most without very good reads i'm going to struggle to fold here but against a chunk of people I wont be re-raising. obv if I do re-raise it's a jam and I want him to fold...

TPTP123

Yeah i spose, we may have little fold equity.  All depends on a) his raising frequency and b) how balanced he is. 

Some quick quity calcs below (obv not trying to teach anyone to suck eggs - just trying to get a decent discussion going), prob better to reconstruct the below based on the above, and weight the ranges... 

KdJd	26.9192%
99	73.0808%

KdJd	43.6027%
Tx9x,99-66,9x8x,8x7x,7x6x	56.3973%

KdJd	50.7277%
* Ax9x-Ax2x,JxTx,JxTy,Tx9x,99-66,9x8x,8x7x,7x6x	49.2723%

bearlyther

Villian is not a nit and very capable of 3 bet folding a flop however im not very optimistic that he is folding here.

beaneh

In Response to Re: Thoughts?:

Villian is not a nit and very capable of 3 bet folding a flop however im not very optimistic that he is folding here.
Posted by bearlyther

this texture particularly, it's hard for him to have raise folds, we have blockers to his fds with no pair that he might play aggressively. 

also fwiw, he's 2bet the flop not 3bet! 3bet is the third bet. preflop the blinds are the first bet so it goes raise, reraise and the reraise is the 3bet. on the flop bet/raise/re-raise is the 3rd bet.

TPTP123

i suggest we avoid complext topics like 2bets and put villain on a prerange, subsect the range into folds/flats/raises.

Count the combos in his raise range and run some numbers... 

bearlyther

In Response to Re: Thoughts?:

i suggest we avoid complext topics like 2bets
Posted by TPTP123

+1 !!!!!! lol

percival09

yah i think others covered. sometimes u can call and fold turns you miss, vs some you can 3b