20nl masive draw - massive pot - should we fold

rancid

do we have to fold

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancerancidSmall blind £0.10£0.10£57.35watever_Big blind £0.20£0.30£46.28 Your hole cards87   dubzsRaise £0.60£0.90£42.32DEL19Call £0.60£1.50£44.43rancidCall £0.50£2.00£56.85watever_Call £0.40£2.40£45.88Flop  649   rancidCheck    watever_Check    dubzsBet £1.80£4.20£40.52DEL19Call £1.80£6.00£42.63rancidCall £1.80£7.80£55.05watever_All-in £45.88£53.68£0.00dubzsAll-in £40.52£94.20£0.00DEL19Fold    rancid

BorinLoner

It probably is a fold but why are you not check-raising or perhaps leading with such a massive draw? You think you have no fold equity?

I think it's a raise when it comes back to you, personally. Now I think there's too good a chance that we're dead to six outs to make the call...

rancid

In Response to Re: 20nl masive draw - massive pot:

It probably is a fold but why are you not check-raising or perhaps leading with such a massive draw? You think you have no fold equity? I think it's a raise when it comes back to you, personally. Now I think there's too good a chance that we're dead to six outs to make the call...
Posted by BorinLoner

so you put the shover on FD + 2 overs

dubz has never got FD

BorinLoner

It seems unlikely that the caller is on a flush draw, as he's the pre-flop raiser and with the action you'd think it's more likely to just be an overpair. I'd just expect the overshove to be a big draw more often than not...

You need about 30% to break even and obviously you aren't getting that against a big made hand and a better flush draw. Stove their ranges and see what it gives you. I'd think it's probably -EV but I may be wrong... I dunno.

rancid

In Response to Re: 20nl masive draw - massive pot - should we fold:

It seems unlikely that the caller is on a flush draw, as he's the pre-flop raiser and with the action you'd think it's more likely to just be an overpair. I'd just expect the overshove to be a big draw more often than not... You need about 30% to break even and obviously you aren't getting that against a big made hand and a better flush draw. Stove their ranges and see what it gives you. I'd think it's probably -EV but I may be wrong... I dunno.
Posted by BorinLoner

40% v set & overpair
46% c 2 pr & overpair

20% v 2 pr & FD + 2 overs

Only worried about FD

BorinLoner

You have to weight the hands' likeliness, though. I don't imagine that a set, two-pair or overpair is going to shove this flop that often. As I say, I'd usually weight that heavily towards big draws.

It's a massive overshove though, so it's not easy to understand it's motivation. It's not going to be coming from the deepest of thinkers, I would say, so perhaps it's going to be a made hand more often than I'm giving it credit for. The big check-shove just seems like something most players wouldn't do with a made hand but might do with a draw.

Did you make the call?

liamboi11

me personally i`d be raising the flop getting it in(dunno if this wrong though).

bearlyther

Lead out on this flop and hope you get raised 

rancid

Why does everyone want to play their hand so face up !! lead or c/r !! WHAT WHAT !!

I called btw, did not think shover had the FD with the massive c/r - felt more like a vulnerable hand
Thought the caller had overpr, 2 pr - set w/e - think I have to call

shover had 96, caller had AA - boooooom! I binked

Not 100% this is the right call though - hence the post - if one of them flicks over AKhh I is 20% - even though given action I don't think their ranges are weighted towards FD's +2 overs - can't think of any combi draws either that would play this way

AMYBR

Yeah is a tad tricky.  I'd just run the math, but at a glance looks like math dictates a call, unless we have solid reads that oppo does this with better FD